17. January 2022

Global temperatur september 2020. Geir Aaslid.

 

Global temperatur september 2020

Vi har temperaturdata for september fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for september er med +0,57 C opp fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer hvordan man beregner klimaet. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.

UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren

UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1981-2010. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. September 2020 er med (+0,57 C) økt noe etter sommeren.
Med en blomstrende La Niña i Stillehavet, er rest-energien fra vårens varme overflatevann på vei oppover i atmosfæren. Man ser den kjølende effekten av La Niña klarest i månedene februar, mars eller april, ifølge Dr. Spencer.

  • Nordlige halvkule opp til 0,58 o C, fra 0,47 C forrige mnd.
  • Sydlige halvkule klart opp til 0,56 o C, fra 0,38 C forrige mnd.
  • Tropene ned til 0,46 C, fra 0,59 C forrige mnd.
  • USA48 betydelig opp til 0,97 C, fra 0,41 C forrige mnd.
  • Arktis nær uendret, med 0,48 C, fra 0,47 C forrige mnd.
  • Australia betydelig opp til 0,92 C, fra 0,49 C forrige mnd.

Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære, men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.

ENSO-varsler

ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña  (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, men ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.

NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (28. september) «La Niña» forhold på nordlige halvkule. Sannsynligheten for La Niña for høst og vinter er 75 %.  Som man ser av figuren til venstre, hvor den tykke sorte linjen er gjennomsnittet av de ulike modellene, har havtemperaturen sunket under normalen, og dette gjelder ikke bare overflaten, men også for de øverste 300 metrene av havet.

Meteorologene  i Australia melder også om La Niña forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet. De viser i en analyse 29. september til at alle internasjonale klimamodeller forutsier La Niña forhold minst til januar.

Vel så interessant er opplysningen om at bare 3 modeller varsler en mild La Niña, mens halvdelen av modellene varsler en sterkere effekt, nærmere La Niña-sesongen i 2010-12. Som man ser fra UAH-temperaturene i øverste figur, kan en sterk La Niña-sesong reversere all global oppvarming siden 1980.

Samtidig er Det Indiske Hav varmere enn normalt, og begge disse forholdene gir mer nedbør enn normalt for regionen i resten av året.

Australias månelanding

Australia ble tidligere lurt av IPCC-leiren til å tro på en serie med tørre år og tomme vannreservoarer, slik at enorme beløp ble investert i energikrevende avsaltingsanlegg ved kysten. Litt av en månelanding altså, uten at man ‘down under’ skrøt av innsatsen med slike floskler.
I virkeligheten er reservoarene fulle, og det har vært flere tilfeller med alvorlige flomskader. Det kan gå 5-10 år mellom hver gang et slikt anlegg settes i drift, men når det først skjer kan australierne trøste seg med at man «kompenserer» ved å kjøpe klimasertifikater.

Følg med på Værstat.no

Dette nettstedet har fokus på myndighetenes formidling av statistikk og siviløkonom Ole Østlid er redaktør. I september var det fire oppslag hvor det ble påvist at både NRK og Miljødirektoratet (MD) manipulerer og utelater i sin formidling. Iblant nekter de også å rette på åpenbare feil.

Mest illustrerende for det som foregår er oppslaget om at MD overkjører egen faginstans, og skjuler hva de i Norsk Polarinstitutt har å si. Den politiske korrektheten i offentlig klimaforvaltning er skremmende.

Du kan også følge Værstat i sosiale medier, for eksempel på Facebook.

Høsten er her

Som vanlig er IPCC-leirens medier fulle av klimaskremsler, og ethvert tilfelle av småvarmt vær får store oppslag, og varmen er vår skyld fordi vi har klimasyndet. Politisk korrekte klimaforskere gråter sine krokodilletårer når de ser rennende vann på Svalbard, i trygg forvissning om at de kan lure både bevilgende politikere og NATOs ledende klimaklovn.

Foto fra Corriere della Sera

Her er noen tilfeller av kaldt vær. Det meste av USA blir i disse dager rammet av enda en arktisk kuldefront, Atlanta i Georgia må tilbake til 1979 for å finne tilsvarende lave september-temperaturer, mens deler av Italia har hatt kaldeste september på 50 år. Mens Milano fikk ekstremvær, type vått, så falt julesnøen tidlig i år nær Roma, ved Cervara som ligger ca 1000 meter over havet.

Både varmt og kaldt vær styres av naturen selv, og det eksisterer ikke noe pengebeløp stort nok på denne kloden til at menneskeheten makter å påvirke klodens temperatur målbart. Norges vanvittige pengebruk har ingen klimaeffekt. Takk til Hogne Hongset for å si klart ifra.

Alt man oppnår med såkalte klimatiltak er å redusere befolkningens levestandard. Verdier som skulle tjene neste generasjon kanaliseres isteden ned i dype grønne lommer.

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