17. January 2022

Klima-alarmismen når nye høyder og vitenskapelig bunnivå. Ole Henrik Ellestad. August 11. 2021

 

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/08/11/klima-alarmismen-nar-nye-hoyder-og-vitenskapelig-bunniva/

 

Klima-alarmismen når nye høyder og vitenskapelig bunnivå

Klimanytt nr. 302. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.

Kloden brenner ikke og kommer ikke til å brenne. Men IPCC og ekstremvær-politikerne brenner etter å få folk til å tro det ved sitt alarmerende budskap i 2021 SPM-rapporten. Det står i sterk motsetning til kjente data om vinterens mange kulderekorder, global middeltemperatur som har sunket nesten 0.5 C på noen måneder, markant grønnere klode og rekordavlinger. Klimaendringene har gitt jordens befolkning bedre leveforhold enn tidligere. IPCC-dementiene fra 2013-rapporten av tidligere alarmerende ekstremeffekter er fortsatt statistisk holdbare, men ikke i IPCCs modellverden.

Viktige spørsmål omgås

Pass på IPCC-retorikken: «CO2-nivået er det høyeste de siste 2 millioner år». Sannheten er at dagens CO2-nivå er blant de aller, aller laveste de siste 550 millioner år, litt over ‘sultegrensen’ for plantevekst.

Hvordan kan det være klimakrise over hele kloden forårsaket av økende temperaturer når global middeltemperatur har sunket med ca. 0.5 C de siste måneder etter en vinter med mange kulderekorder? Selv om CO2-økningen har fortsatt har middeltemperaturen vært tilnærmet konstant siden 1997 (IPCC hiatusnivå fra 2013-rapporten) bare avbrutt av siste femårsperiode med tre varme El Niñoer (vær) hvorav én på ‘supernivå’.

Er det krise når det meldes om hyppige rekordavlinger, kloden blir grønnere eller 12 års opphold i sterke orkaner som når land i USA? Og hvordan kan man hevde at det likevel helt sikkert er krise uten noen kriterier? Vi er jo inne i en mellomistid i den geologiske istidperioden Pleistocen. Kloden har tidligere vært ca. 7 C varmere i flere hundre millioner år med rikholdig plante- og dyreliv.

Det alarmerende budskapet ‘henger ikke på greip’ og viser det alle involverte vet, men alt for få får anledning til å formidle offentlig – at modellene, som IPCC bygger sine konklusjoner på, har store faglige mangler, en rekke antagelser og store muligheter til å forme resultatet ved justeringer (tuning). Obamas rådgiver, elitefysikeren Steven Koonin, påpeker svakhetene i sin bok ‘Unsettled’.

Bakteppet

Harald Stanghelle skrev i Aftenposten, mai 2012, etter publisering av IPCCs mellomrapport om ekstremvær at vitenskap var bra, men skal det bli politikk av det måtte det valgstemmer til. Det er dekkende for IPCCs arbeid og spillet rundt deres rapporter siden 1995, da forskernes konklusjoner om manglende bevis for menneskeskapt oppvarming ble endret etter inngripen fra USAs politiske administrasjon (KN 83). Alarmer skremmer folk, selger aviser og tjener budskapsprodusenten. Politiske delegater er med å vedta ‘Summary for Policymakers’. SPM er ikke vitenskap, men politikk forkledd i pseudovitenskapens drakt (Knfr. Koonin og KN 238).

2012-rapporten konkluderte med at ekstremvær vil bli dominert av naturlige variasjoner de neste 20-30 år. Gaia-filosofientusiast og miljøforkjemper, professor James Lovelock, uttalte at vi hadde trodd på IPCCs modeller og arbeid, men de overdrevne alarmer var feilaktige. Han forlot IPCCs supporterkrets, skrev bok (i likhet med Hamburgs miljøvernminister Fritz Vahrenholt) og uttalte at forskerne møtes i regi av IPCC for å heie på hverandre. I 2012 ble konklusjonen nedtonet av medier og politikere. Fokuset ble i stedet rettet mot en påstått havnivåstigning i Norge på over 80 cm innen år 2100 (Bjerknessenteret), mens landet fortsatt stiger etter den siste istid.

I 2013-rapporten dementerte IPCC en rekke av sine tidligere alarmer. Det var ingen økte tendenser til tropiske orkaner, flom, tørke eller tornadoer.

IPCCs’ Summary for Policymakers’

IPCCs ‘Summary for Policymakers’ (SPM WG1) ble lansert som ‘kloden i krise’. Saksgrunnlaget skal som sedvanlig, justeres i henhold til vedtakene så det blir samsvar. Enkeltpåstander publisert tidligere er blitt markant tilbakevist. Publikasjoner om god sammenheng mellom solens magnetfelt- og klimavariasjoner de siste 2000 år samt en rekke studier av naturlige variasjoner formidles ikke.

Bruken av de definerte scenariomodeller som grunnlag for beregninger har vært kritisert i årevis fordi drivhuseffekten er satt alt for høyt i forhold til observasjonene. Likevel benyttes scenariene ukritisk. Modellene er basert på en global beregning og nedskalering til regioner der effektene materialiserer seg er høyst mangelfull og reproduserer ikke observerte variasjoner opp gjennom tidene.

Utsnitt av grafene om klimaeffekter over tid velges for å tjene IPCCs sak, men gir dessverre ofte leser/tilhører et fordreid inntrykk i forhold til helheten sett over tid slik figuren antyder (se KN301 for nok et eksempel).

Ferskt eksempel fra USA som viser hvordan forvaltningen skjuler pinlige data som ikke passer med klimafortellingen.

De ulike eksempler på effekter av global oppvarming viser seg i en rekke tilfeller å være dominert av menneskelig svikt i administrasjon og tilrettelegging for vassdrag og skogpleie. Ildspåsetting er den langt fremste årsak til skogbrann i Australia. Tyskland, et av de dagsaktuelle eksempler, har ingen endret tendens til økt nedbør de siste 70 år, men effekten av en akutt flom er delvis forskyldt av manglende vassdragsadministrasjon.

Roger Pielke jr., en amerikansk professor og spesialist på miljø- og klimaeffekter samt tilhørende kostnader, benyttes ofte som ekspert ved høringer i US Congress. Han fant over 17 000 artikler basert på disse modellscenarioene som er basert på alt for høy CO2-effekt og ikke stemmer med observasjoner. Ut ifra offentlige statistikker finner han ikke de alarmerende effekter som IPCC lanserer gjennom sine modeller og rapporter (men snarere en bekreftelse på deres dementier (2012/13/14). Han påpeker også at med så lang tidshorisont og lav frekvens vil det måtte gå mange, mange år før tendensen påvirkes. (Se Pielkes erklæring i kongress og på hans twitterkonto).

Norsk ekstremværstatistikk fra Meteorologisk institutt siden 1994 viser ingen økt tendens.

Tilliten til IPCC-rapporten ville også økt om den registrerte avkjøling i Antarktis de senere tiår hadde vært omtalt, og at økt CO2 der vil gi avkjøling i rundt 9 av årets 12 måneder (KN 300).

Små effekter av endring i drivhusgasser på dagens nivå

IPCCs scenariomodeller har en hovedfeil. Effekten av drivhusgassene er sterkt overdrevet. Hovedkonklusjonen etter 200 års forskning er klar: Det er liten effekt ved endring av konsentrasjonen av drivhusgasser på dagens nivå. Den dominerende gassen vanndamp og den langt mindre betydningsfulle CO2 nærmer seg optisk metning, der endringer gir små variasjoner. De øvrige gassene er til stede i så små konsentrasjoner at de har og vil få liten effekt.

Det er 150 år siden J. Tyndall hadde liknende konklusjoner fra sine målinger. Senere er de bekreftet av målinger i laboratorier og fra satellitter og bekreftet ved de mest nøyaktige målinger og beregninger basert på de beste atmosfæriske data (KN 300, KN 297 og KN 282). IPCCs mangeårige påstand om en betydelig forsterkning fra mer vanndamp, observeres ikke. Det observeres mindre vanndamp i de viktige atmosfærelag. ‘Hot spot’ som er selve beviset, er ikke observert (KN 291), og to store prosjekter i Stillehavet i 1990-årene ga heller ingen bekreftelse. Hvorfor omgås disse velkjente forhold?

Dette tilsier at minking av drivhusgasser ved ulike samfunnstiltak også vil ha liten effekt. Først under 200 ppm vil det gå vesentlig raskere.

Konklusjon

CICERO-forsker Bjørn H. Samset som har vært sentral i rapportarbeidet, uttaler i et intervju med Khronos (9.aug.2021) at universitetene må feie for egen dør. Bruker han selv ‘vitenskapskosten’ på sine egne uttalelser vil krisetilstanden være borte og klodens klimautvikling fremstå som fordelaktig. Da forsvinner også IPCCs pseudovitenskap, og vitenskapelig integritet blir gjenopprettet.

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