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Antall ekstremvær i Norge i perioden 1994 – 2021 er nedadgående
- Kategorier: Ekstremvær, Klimapolitikk
Klimanytt nr. 314. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Kjell Stordahl, medlem i Klimarealistenes vitenskapelige råd
Ved nyttårsskiftet 1991/1992 nådde et kraftig lavtrykk kysten av Vestlandet med vind opp i orkan styrke. Dette uværet ble kalt Nyttårsorkanen. De materielle skadene ble store, men ingen menneskeliv gikk tapt. Uværet var varslet, men informasjonen nådde ikke fram til myndighetene som hadde ansvar for samfunnssikkerheten.
I etterkant av Nyttårsorkanen ble det laget en varslingsplan for å sikre at informasjon fra Meteorologisk institutt om spesielt farlig vær, «ekstremvær», skal nå ansvarlige myndigheter som hovedredningssentraler, beredskapskontorene i fylkene og politimyndigheter. I 1994 forelå varslingsplanen, og de første ekstremværvarslene ble utarbeidet vinteren 1994–1995.
Det er Meteorologisk institutt som sender ut varsler om ekstremvær. De navngir ekstremværet og bruker fargekode rødt for dette ekstremværet. Værfenomenene som det sendes ekstremværvarsel for, er:
- Sterk vind, som regel storm
- Store nedbørsmengder eller endrede temperaturforhold som kan føre til stor storm
- Ekstremt stor snøskredfare over store områder
- Stormflo (ekstremt høy vannstand langs store deler av kysten)
Det er utarbeidet en statistikk for ekstremvær fra 1994 og frem til og med 2021. I løpet av disse 28 årene er det sendt ut 80 ekstremværvarsler. Figuren viser ekstremværutviklingen der de blå søylene angir antall ekstremvær for hvert år.
Det fremgår at antall ekstremvær avtar i perioden 1994 – 2021. Vi må helt tilbake til 2017 for at det var mer enn to ekstremvær i løpet av året. For å se på trenden i utviklingen er det laget en regresjonsmodell …
som angir hvorledes antall ekstremvær avtar med tiden. Se rødlig linje i figuren. Gjennomsnittlig antall ekstremvær per år er 2,9. Mange av ekstremværene kommer i januar. I januar 2022 inntraff ekstremværet Gyda.
Vi har gjennom det siste året blitt bombardert av ulike media om ekstremvær og katastrofer som skyldes mer intenst klima. Dette ble gjort i særlig grad i tilknytning til FNs klimamøte COP26. Denne statistikken viser at utviklingen av antall ekstremvær i Norge basert på den definisjonen som Meteorologisk institutt bruker, ikke på noen måte går mot en katastrofe, men utvikler seg sakte i en nedadgående retning.
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