2. July 2022

Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2

 

Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2

Ny forskning studerer situasjonen, hva er årsak og hva er virkning? IPCC-leirens hypotese er at økt CO2 forårsaker økt temperatur, men denne studien fra Koutsoyiannis og Kundzewicz tar utgangspunkt i at det motsatte kan være tilfelle og ser først på paleoklimatiske fata og deretter på moderne data fra 1980-2019. Studiens fokus er på tidsaspektet (timing) og ikke på graden av endring.

Bakgrunn

Studien ser på forhistorien, fra Tyndall (1865), Den italienske meteorologen De Marchi (1895), Arrhenius (1896) og bemerker at de første eksperimentene både på vanndamp og CO2 ble utført av Eunice Newton Foote (1856). Allerede dengang var det klart at de to variablene CO2 og temperatur var tett knyttet sammen. Filosofisk ser studien på temaet som et klassisk høna-og-egget problem, og viser til Plutarch som tidligst drøftet en slik årsakssammenheng (kausalitet er det fine ordet).

Vi har i 2020 på grunn av Covid-19 pandemien hatt de mest drastiske kutt i industrielle CO2-utslipp (rød stolpe til høyre i figuren under), uten at disse kuttene vises i målinger av atmosfærisk CO2-nivå ved Mauna Loa. Studien peker også på finanskrisen i 2008-2009 hvor det var klare reduksjoner i industrielle CO2-utslipp, uten at det lot seg spore i Mauna-Loa målingene (se Peters et al,)

Paleoklimatiske studier

I dag har vi samlet mye mer viten, spesielt fra paleoklimatiske studier. Denne studien viser til Schmidt et al (2010), som hevder at CO2s andel av IR-absorpsjon er 19% mens vanndamp og skyer står for 75 %. Redaksjonen innskyter at vanndampens dominans ble påpekt allerede på Arrhenius tid av Ångstrøm, så vanndampens rolle har vært kjent i mer enn 100 år, men nøyaktig hvor stor den dominerende effekten av vanndamp inklusive skyer er, fortsatt debatteres.

Årsak og virkning i Phanerozoic-epoken vises tydelig (Vostok-iskjerner) av studien fra Roe (2006), med sitatet «variations in atmospheric CO2 appear to lag the rate of change of global ice volume. This implies only a secondary role for CO2—variations in which produce a weaker radiative forcing than the orbitally-induced changes in summertime insolation—in driving changes in global ice volume.»

En rekke studier støtter Roe, og angir en tidsavstand fra temperaturendring til CO2-endring på 50 til 1000 år, basert på tidsperioden som er studert samt øvrige detaljer i studiene. Ingen studier peker på motsatt mulighet.

CO2-nivå estimert fra iskjerneprøver har flere problemer:
Det har også kommet annen forskning (Massman og Frank 2006) som viser at CO2-nivået på 280 ppm IPCC-leiren benytter seg av bl.a. fra iskjerneprøvene er svært fantasifullt; de skriver konkret: «moderne CO2 konsentrasjon under hardpakket snø i skog og eng varierer fra 600-1800 ppm og nivået kan fluktuere med opptil 200 ppm på bare 4 dager.»

Når man observerer slike forhold i dag ser man problemene med IPCC-leirens bruk av CO2-estimater fra bl.a Vostok. Massmann og Frank støtter dermed Jaworowski, Segalstad, Ono (1992) på at iskjerneprøvene ikke kunne benyttes til å bestemme tidligere tiders CO2-nivå.

Moderne studier

Forskerne har sett på to moderne datasett for temperatur, UAH data for lavere troposfære, og CRUTEM som er landtemperatur, et felles prosjekt fra Met Office Hadley Centre og Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ved University of East Anglia.

Forskjellig trend i de to kurvene er ansett som irrelevant siden det er årsak og virkning man undersøker. Det er velkjent i klimaforskningen at global oppvarming er mye sterkere over land enn over hav og at bakkemålt temperatur er forurenset av et stigende antall termometre i urbane strøk, samt en sterkt varierende gjennomsnitts-avstand fra ekvator.

Det er i figuren under brukt fire datasett for atmosfærisk CO2, Mauna Loa, Barrow i Alaska, Sydpolen og et globalt gjennomsnitt. Som man ser i figuren er forskjellen gjennom året størst der det regionalt er mest fotosyntese.

Studien påpeker klart at man her (figuren under) ikke ser noen årsakssammenheng mellom CO2 og temperatur, fordi temperaturen går kaotisk opp og ned, mens CO2 viser en stabil årsvariasjon og en jevnt stigende kurve.

Kan man med statsitisk analyse vise at det er en årsakssammenheng den andre veien, fra T til CO2? Det kan man.

For de som interesserer seg for detaljene i studiens metodikk og detaljene i den statistiske analyse viser vi til selve studien. Tabell 1 fra studien er gjengitt her, den viser antall måneder før CO2-nivået reagerer på endret temperatur. Studien bruker et signifikansnivå på 1 %.

Konklusjon: T = årsak, CO2 = virkning

Resultatet av studien støtter hypotesen at begge kausalitetsretninger eksisterer, med T som årsak og CO2 som virkning klart dominerende, til tross for at motsatt retning hersker i media og i politikken, samt i IPCC-leiren. Studiens resultater viser at endring i CO2 følger etter endring i temperatur med ca 6 mnd på en månedsskala, eller ca ett år på en årsskala.

Studien viser også til at naturens biokjemiske utslipp av CO2 fra jordmonnet kan øke med høyere temperatur og at dette reiser flere interessante spørsmål. I siste setning påpeker forfatterne i et neppe utilsiktet spark til IPCC-leiren, at forskere i det 21. århundre burde være klar over at komplekse systemer motsetter seg forenklede forklaringer.

Redaksjonen påpeker at denne studien dermed kommer til samme konklusjon som Humlum, Stordahl og Solheim, som i 2013 publiserte en analyse av en noe kortere tidsserie (1980-2012).

312 thoughts on “Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2

  1. Howdy are using WordPress for your blog platform?

    I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you require any coding expertise to make your
    own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

  2. Excellent blog right here! Also your web site so
    much up very fast! What host are you the use of? Can I get your
    affiliate hyperlink on your host? I want my website loaded
    up as fast as yours lol

  3. I believe that is one of the most vital info for me.
    And i am satisfied studying your article.
    However should observation on some normal issues, The website style is perfect, the articles is truly excellent
    : D. Just right job, cheers

  4. Hi there, I discovered your blog by way of Google whilst searching for
    a similar subject, your site came up, it appears to be like good.
    I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.
    Hi there, just turned into aware of your blog thru Google, and located that it is truly
    informative. I am going to watch out for brussels.
    I will appreciate if you happen to proceed this in future.
    Lots of other people can be benefited from your writing.
    Cheers!

  5. I think this is among the most vital information for
    me. And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on some general things,
    The site style is great, the articles is really excellent :
    D. Good job, cheers

  6. Amazing blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere?
    A design like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog jump out.
    Please let me know where you got your design. Bless you

  7. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues with hackers?

    My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no backup.
    Do you have any solutions to prevent hackers?

  8. Heya i am for the primary time here. I found this board and
    I in finding It truly helpful & it helped me out much.
    I hope to present something again and help others such as
    you helped me.

  9. It’s actually a nice and useful piece of info. I’m satisfied that you simply shared this helpful info with
    us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

  10. Excellent way of describing, and fastidious post to get
    data regarding my presentation topic, which i am going
    to deliver in institution of higher education.

  11. Hi, Neat post. There is an issue along with your
    website in internet explorer, would test this? IE still is the market leader and a good component to other folks will miss your wonderful writing due to this problem.

  12. Hi to every body, it’s my first pay a quick visit of
    this blog; this blog carries awesome and actually good material designed
    for readers.

  13. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an very long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear.
    Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyhow, just wanted to say excellent blog!

  14. I just like the helpful information you supply on your articles.
    I will bookmark your weblog and test again here regularly.
    I’m quite sure I’ll be informed many new stuff right right here!

    Best of luck for the next!

  15. Its not my first time to go to see this website, i am visiting this web page dailly and
    take pleasant data from here all the time.

  16. Aw, this was a very good post. Taking the time and actual effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I hesitate a whole lot and don’t manage
    to get anything done.

  17. I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your site.
    It looks like some of the text within your posts are running off
    the screen. Can somebody else please comment and let me know if this is happening
    to them too? This could be a issue with my internet
    browser because I’ve had this happen previously.
    Appreciate it

  18. Can I just say what a comfort to find someone that genuinely understands what they’re discussing on the web. You actually know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people should read this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular given that you definitely have the gift.

  19. I truly love your site.. Excellent colors & theme. Did you develop this amazing site yourself? Please reply back as I’m attempting to create my own personal blog and want to know where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Cheers!

  20. Everything is very open with a clear explanation of the issues. It was definitely informative. Your site is very helpful. Thank you for sharing.

  21. I’m impressed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and interesting, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is an issue that too few people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy I came across this during my hunt for something relating to this.

  22. Your style is really unique in comparison to other folks I have read stuff from. Many thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I will just book mark this blog.

  23. This is the right blog for everyone who really wants to find out about this topic. You know a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually would want to…HaHa). You certainly put a new spin on a subject that’s been written about for many years. Excellent stuff, just great.

  24. You’re so awesome! I do not believe I have read through something like this before. So wonderful to find somebody with original thoughts on this issue. Really.. thanks for starting this up. This web site is one thing that’s needed on the web, someone with a little originality.

  25. Can I simply say what a relief to uncover someone that truly knows what they are talking about over the internet. You certainly realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people should look at this and understand this side of the story. I can’t believe you aren’t more popular since you definitely have the gift.

  26. Next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t fail me as much as this one. After all, I know it was my choice to read, however I genuinely believed you would probably have something useful to say. All I hear is a bunch of crying about something that you could fix if you weren’t too busy searching for attention.

  27. When someone writes an post he/she maintains the thought of a user in his/her mind that how a user can know it.
    Therefore that’s why this piece of writing is amazing. Thanks!

  28. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious
    what all is needed to get setup? I’m assuming having a
    blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% certain. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Kudos

  29. Right here is the perfect webpage for anyone who hopes to find out about this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I personally will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a fresh spin on a topic that has been discussed for decades. Great stuff, just wonderful.

  30. I really love your website.. Excellent colors & theme. Did you develop this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m attempting to create my very own website and want to learn where you got this from or just what the theme is called. Cheers.

  31. The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it won’t disappoint me as much as this one. After all, I know it was my choice to read, however I actually thought you’d have something helpful to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something you could possibly fix if you weren’t too busy looking for attention.

  32. Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in truth used to be a enjoyment account it.
    Glance advanced to far added agreeable from you! However, how can we
    be in contact?

  33. Right here is the perfect webpage for anyone who really wants to find out about this topic. You realize a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I personally would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a subject which has been discussed for years. Excellent stuff, just excellent.

  34. This is the perfect site for anybody who hopes to find out about this topic. You know a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic which has been discussed for decades. Excellent stuff, just wonderful.

  35. Howdy, I do think your website could be having web browser compatibility issues. Whenever I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in Internet Explorer, it’s got some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, great website!

  36. I must thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this blog. I am hoping to check out the same high-grade content from you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my very own site now 😉

  37. Next time I read a blog, I hope that it doesn’t fail me just as much as this particular one. After all, I know it was my choice to read, but I truly thought you would have something helpful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of crying about something that you can fix if you weren’t too busy searching for attention.

  38. When I initially commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on whenever a comment is added I receive four emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a means you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks.

  39. You could certainly see your enthusiasm in the article you write.
    The arena hopes for more passionate writers such
    as you who are not afraid to mention how they believe.
    Always go after your heart.

  40. This is a very good tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere. Short but very precise information… Many thanks for sharing this one. A must read article!

  41. You’re so awesome! I do not believe I’ve read something like that before. So great to find somebody with genuine thoughts on this subject matter. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This website is one thing that’s needed on the internet, someone with some originality.

  42. You’ve made some really good points there. I looked on the internet to find out more about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this web site.

  43. Spot on with this write-up, I honestly feel this web site needs far more attention. I’ll probably be back again to read more, thanks for the info!

  44. Hello there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He continually kept preaching about this. I will forward this post to him. Fairly certain he’s going to have a great read. I appreciate you for sharing!

  45. Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate you writing this write-up and also the rest of the website is also very good.

  46. Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you so much, However I am having problems with your RSS. I don’t understand why I cannot subscribe to it. Is there anybody else having the same RSS issues? Anybody who knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  47. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been conducting a little homework on this. And he actually bought me lunch simply because I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to talk about this issue here on your web site.

  48. Everything is very open with a very clear clarification of the challenges. It was definitely informative. Your website is useful. Thank you for sharing.

  49. You are so awesome! I do not believe I’ve read something like that before. So good to discover somebody with some unique thoughts on this subject matter. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This website is one thing that is required on the web, someone with a little originality.

  50. May I simply just say what a relief to discover an individual who genuinely understands what they’re discussing on the internet. You certainly know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people need to look at this and understand this side of your story. It’s surprising you’re not more popular because you most certainly possess the gift.

  51. Can I just say what a comfort to discover an individual who truly knows what they’re discussing online. You certainly realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More and more people should read this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular because you most certainly have the gift.

  52. Every weekend i used to visit this site, for the reason that i want enjoyment, for
    the reason that this this web site conations really nice funny material too.

  53. An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I do believe that you ought to write more about this subject matter, it might not be a taboo matter but generally people do not speak about these topics. To the next! Kind regards.

  54. I blog often and I seriously appreciate your information. This great article has truly peaked my interest. I will bookmark your blog and keep checking for new information about once per week. I opted in for your RSS feed as well.

  55. Hi there! I could have sworn I’ve visited this website before but after browsing through many of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Regardless, I’m definitely delighted I found it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back often!

  56. Do you mind if I quote a few of your articles as long as I
    provide credit and sources back to your webpage?
    My blog is in the exact same niche as yours and
    my users would definitely benefit from some of the information you provide here.
    Please let me know if this alright with you. Many thanks!

  57. The very next time I read a blog, I hope that it doesn’t disappoint me just as much as this particular one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read, but I actually thought you would have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something you could possibly fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.

  58. Hello there, I found your site by way of Google even as searching for a similar topic, your website got here up, it seems great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.

  59. Hello there! This article could not be written much better! Reading through this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept preaching about this. I am going to send this post to him. Fairly certain he’ll have a great read. Thanks for sharing!

  60. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I’m hoping to view the same high-grade blog posts by you later on as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own, personal blog now 😉

  61. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thanks, However I am encountering troubles with your RSS. I don’t know the reason why I can’t subscribe to it. Is there anybody having the same RSS issues? Anybody who knows the answer will you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  62. I seriously love your website.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you build this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m looking to create my own blog and want to learn where you got this from or just what the theme is called. Many thanks.

  63. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an really long
    comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t
    appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that
    over again. Anyways, just wanted to say wonderful blog!

  64. Hi, I do believe this is a great site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I’m going to revisit once again since i have book marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide others.

  65. After looking into a handful of the articles on your web site, I seriously like your way of writing a blog. I saved as a favorite it to my bookmark webpage list and will be checking back in the near future. Please check out my website too and tell me your opinion.

  66. The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn’t disappoint me just as much as this one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read through, nonetheless I genuinely believed you’d have something helpful to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you could possibly fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.

  67. You are so awesome! I don’t believe I’ve read something like that before. So good to find someone with original thoughts on this issue. Really.. many thanks for starting this up. This site is something that is required on the internet, someone with some originality.

  68. Aw, this was an incredibly nice post. Spending some time and actual effort to create a top notch article… but what can I say… I put things off a whole lot and don’t manage to get nearly anything done.

  69. You are so interesting! I don’t believe I’ve read something like this before. So great to discover somebody with some original thoughts on this subject. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This website is something that is required on the web, someone with a bit of originality.

  70. Can I just say what a comfort to uncover someone that really knows what they’re talking about over the internet. You actually realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people must look at this and understand this side of the story. It’s surprising you aren’t more popular since you certainly have the gift.

  71. Hi, I do believe this is an excellent site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may come back once again since i have book-marked it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide others.

  72. I was extremely pleased to find this great site. I want to to thank you for your time just for this wonderful read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it and i also have you saved as a favorite to check out new information in your web site.

  73. After I initially commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get 4 emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a way you can remove me from that service? Cheers.

  74. It’s hard to come by well-informed people about this subject, but you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks

  75. Greetings! Very helpful advice within this article! It’s the little changes that will make the largest changes. Thanks a lot for sharing!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.