Britiske forskere kan ha funnet en forklaring på hvorfor sist vinter var iskald i Norge. Hentet fra forskning.no

Hentet: https://www.forskning.no/klima-vinter-vaer-og-vind/britiske-forskere-kan-ha-funnet-en-forklaring-pa-hvorfor-sist-vinter-var-iskald-i-norge/2417140

I fjor vinter var det rekordkaldt i Oslo med temperaturer ned mot 30 kuldegrader. I landet som helhet var vinteren den kaldeste på over ti år. De nye elbussene i hovedstaden fikk store problemer. (Foto: Rodrigo Freitas/NTB)

Britiske forskere kan ha funnet en forklaring på hvorfor sist vinter var iskald i Norge

Forskerne varsler at den kommende vinteren blir varm og våt.

Publisert 

Kort fortalt handler det om værfenomenene La Niña og El Niño i Stillehavet. Og at de påvirker været i Nord-Atlanteren – og Norge – med en forsinkelse på 12 måneder.

  • La Niña («Jentungen») kan ett år etterpå føre til at Norge får iskalde vintre.
  • El Niño («Guttungen») kan også påvirke været i Nord-Atlanteren og Norge ett år etter at værfenomenet var i Stillehavet. Da blir vinteren her hos oss mild og fuktig.

Forskerne ved Storbritannias meteorologiske institutt Met Office tror at vi nå kan få mer nøyaktige langtidsvarsler for kommende vintre.

La Niña og El Niño

Hvert tredje til femte år skifter Stillehavet fra La Niña (med kjølig vann i havoverflaten) til El Niño (med varmt vann havoverflaten).

Syklusen er kjent som ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Den skapes av endringer i vindene som blåser over havet.

Endrede vindretninger forandrer forholdet mellom kjøligere dyphavsvann og varmere overflatevann.

Påvirker Nord-Atlanteren

Forskere visste fra før at ENSO-mønstre påvirker klimaet i Nord-Atlanteren og endrer sjansene for kalde eller varme vintre i Storbritannia og Norge.

Det nye forskeren Adam Scaife og kollegene hans ved Met Office har funnet ut, handler om at vinterværet i Storbritannia og Norge endres et helt år etter en La Niña- eller El Niño-episode i Stillehavet.

Forklarer den siste kalde vinteren

Når La Niña eller El Niño begynner, så påvirkes først atmosfæren rundt Ekvator.

Denne innvirkningen sprer seg sakte i løpet av måneder utover til den nordlige og den sørlige halvkule.

Adam Scaife leder arbeidet med langtidsvarsling hos Met Office. Da han og kollegene så nærmere på hvordan denne spredningen påvirker været, oppdaget de en tydelig effekt på vinterværet hos oss her i nord.

Den siste La Niña-episoden strakte seg fra 2020 og helt fram til begynnelsen av 2023. Det er sjelden kost at La Niña varer i hele tre påfølgende år.

La Niña bidrar til mer østlige vinder her i nord. Dermed øker sannsynligheten for at vinteren etterpå blir kald i Storbritannia og Norge.

Slik vi opplevde i Norge vinteren 2023/2024.

I midten av 2010 startet en sterk La Niña som varte til begynnelsen av 2012. Vinteren etter (2012/2013) var iskald i Norge. Vintertemperaturene lå på 2,9 grader under normalen. Mange brukte muligheten til å gå på ski, som her i Holmenkollen.
(Foto: Berit Roald/NTB)

Kommende vinter blir varm og våt

Annonse

Forskerne ser at når det er El Niño som utvikler seg, så øker styrken til vestlige vinder i Nord-Atlanteren den påfølgende vinteren. Det bringer mildt, vått vær til store deler av Nord-Atlanteren.

En kraftig El Niño dominerte i 2023 og begynnelsen av 2024.

Det kan gjøre kommende vinter mild og våt i Norge. Det kan også bety at vi får en vinter med mer stormfylt vær.

Kald vinter eller varm vinter?

Kort oppsummert er det dette forskerne ved britiske Met Office har funnet:

  • Når El Niño skaper mye varmt vær og øker den globale temperaturen – så kan vinteren etterpå bli kald her hos oss.
  • Når La Niña skaper kaldere vær globalt – så kan det gi oss varmere vintre.
  • Denne omvendte effekten mener Scaife og kollegene ved Met office å se at blir spesielt sterk her hos oss ved det nordlige Atlanterhavet.
  • Den rammer Storbritannia og Norge med en forsinkelse på 12 måneder.

– Komplisert

Reidun Gangstø.
(Foto: Meteorologisk institutt)

Reidun Gangstø er forsker ved Meteorologisk institutt i Oslo. Hun synes studien høres veldig interessant ut.

– Samtidig må vi huske på at det er flere faktorer som påvirker vinterværet her hos oss, minner hun om.

– Det gjør det nok mer komplisert enn dette å forutsi hvordan været den kommende vinteren vil bli.

– Men en sånn studie hvor forskerne oppdager klare sammenhenger må vi se nærmere på.

Referanse og kilder:

Adam Scaife m.fl: «ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later», Science, oktober 2024

New Scientist: «El Niño pattern can bring wet weather to UK one year later», oktober 2024

NTB om vinterkulda i 2013 og 2024

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