by Britiske forskere kan ha funnet en forklaring på hvorfor sist vinter var iskald i Norge
Forskerne varsler at den kommende vinteren blir varm og våt.
Kort fortalt handler det om værfenomenene La Niña og El Niño i Stillehavet. Og at de påvirker været i Nord-Atlanteren – og Norge – med en forsinkelse på 12 måneder.
- La Niña («Jentungen») kan ett år etterpå føre til at Norge får iskalde vintre.
- El Niño («Guttungen») kan også påvirke været i Nord-Atlanteren og Norge ett år etter at værfenomenet var i Stillehavet. Da blir vinteren her hos oss mild og fuktig.
Forskerne ved Storbritannias meteorologiske institutt Met Office tror at vi nå kan få mer nøyaktige langtidsvarsler for kommende vintre.
La Niña og El Niño
Hvert tredje til femte år skifter Stillehavet fra La Niña (med kjølig vann i havoverflaten) til El Niño (med varmt vann havoverflaten).
Syklusen er kjent som ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Den skapes av endringer i vindene som blåser over havet.
Endrede vindretninger forandrer forholdet mellom kjøligere dyphavsvann og varmere overflatevann.
Påvirker Nord-Atlanteren
Forskere visste fra før at ENSO-mønstre påvirker klimaet i Nord-Atlanteren og endrer sjansene for kalde eller varme vintre i Storbritannia og Norge.
Det nye forskeren Adam Scaife og kollegene hans ved Met Office har funnet ut, handler om at vinterværet i Storbritannia og Norge endres et helt år etter en La Niña- eller El Niño-episode i Stillehavet.
Forklarer den siste kalde vinteren
Når La Niña eller El Niño begynner, så påvirkes først atmosfæren rundt Ekvator.
Denne innvirkningen sprer seg sakte i løpet av måneder utover til den nordlige og den sørlige halvkule.
Adam Scaife leder arbeidet med langtidsvarsling hos Met Office. Da han og kollegene så nærmere på hvordan denne spredningen påvirker været, oppdaget de en tydelig effekt på vinterværet hos oss her i nord.
Den siste La Niña-episoden strakte seg fra 2020 og helt fram til begynnelsen av 2023. Det er sjelden kost at La Niña varer i hele tre påfølgende år.
La Niña bidrar til mer østlige vinder her i nord. Dermed øker sannsynligheten for at vinteren etterpå blir kald i Storbritannia og Norge.
Slik vi opplevde i Norge vinteren 2023/2024.
Kommende vinter blir varm og våt
Forskerne ser at når det er El Niño som utvikler seg, så øker styrken til vestlige vinder i Nord-Atlanteren den påfølgende vinteren. Det bringer mildt, vått vær til store deler av Nord-Atlanteren.
En kraftig El Niño dominerte i 2023 og begynnelsen av 2024.
Det kan gjøre kommende vinter mild og våt i Norge. Det kan også bety at vi får en vinter med mer stormfylt vær.
– Komplisert
Reidun Gangstø er forsker ved Meteorologisk institutt i Oslo. Hun synes studien høres veldig interessant ut.
– Samtidig må vi huske på at det er flere faktorer som påvirker vinterværet her hos oss, minner hun om.
– Det gjør det nok mer komplisert enn dette å forutsi hvordan været den kommende vinteren vil bli.
– Men en sånn studie hvor forskerne oppdager klare sammenhenger må vi se nærmere på.
Referanse og kilder:
Adam Scaife m.fl: «ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later», Science, oktober 2024
New Scientist: «El Niño pattern can bring wet weather to UK one year later», oktober 2024
NTB om vinterkulda i 2013 og 2024
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