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Cicero – kunnskap eller uviten?
- oktober 2, 2016
- 22:19
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Cicero, Havforsuring, Klimamodeller, Klimamyter, Richard Lindzen, Tom V. Segalstad
Ciceros avdeling for klimakommunikasjon ved Christian Bjørnæs og Monica Bjermeland har delt sin kunnskap med oss i et oppslag fra 22. september. Eller har de simpelthen vist frem sin uviten? Vi analyserer innholdet og viser noen av de groveste feilene. Denne institusjonen er en stor produsent av materiale med liten eller ingen vitenskapelig forankring og da de kan gjemme bort innholdet når grove feil blir påpekt, har vi tatt oss den frihet å arkivere dette oppslaget til glede for fremtidige forskere som vil se på hvordan Norge har kommet dithen at staten finansierer så mye postfaktuelt om klimaet.
Det starter i ingressen
Allerede i ingressen kan vi lese følgende feil, våre kommentarer i parentes i kursiv:
For tre år siden oppsummerte FNs klimapanel den viktigste forskningen på feltet (dvs feltet for politisk korrekt klimaforskning). Mye har skjedd med klimakunnskapen siden da (men det meste kan vi ikke skrive noe om, for det er kunnskap vi ikke liker). Nå vet vi at oppvarmingen er høyere enn antatt (feil, bare siden februar har temperaturen gått betydelig ned), prognosene om ekstremregn enda sikrere (observert ekstremregn analysert av Dr. Kjell Stordahl vil de ikke snakke om), EUs utslippsreduksjoner raskere (de er fortsatt 100% uforpliktende og ikke fordelt mellom landene), indiske utslipp kraftig økende og effekten av Parisavtalen svært usikker (for alle praktiske formål, effekten er nær null for temperaturen – altså svært sikker, men potensielt katastrofal for økonomien).
Cicero – stiftet som Institutt for klimapolitikk i 1990 – lever opp til sitt opprinnelige navn. Kun en ting har de fått riktig, og det er at Indias utslipp øker kraftig takket være et økende antall nye kullkraftverk. Grunnen til dette er at landet ikke akter å ofre sin økonomiske vekst til fordel for klimatiltak som skal bekjempe en imaginær klimakrise.
Resten er av tilsvarende kvalitet
Deretter lister man opp en rekke påstander som til stadighet resirkuleres til tross for at det meste forlengst er tilbakevist; havet varmes, den lavere atmosfæren varmes, landmasser varmes, isen smelter, nedbørsmønstrene endres, havet blir surere, arter forsvinner.
Mennesker forårsaker klimaendringer
Dette er sannheten, påstår de, og viser til et oppslag i The Guardian som er utløst av et brev fra 375 aktivister fra USA som har vitenskapelig bakgrunn. Der finnes vi bl.a påstanden om at vi: “caused most of the historical increase in atmospheric levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.”
Men la oss se hva Christopher Monckton of Brenchley og klimaforskerne William M. Briggs, David R. Legates, Anthony Lupo, Istvan Marko, Dennis Mitchell og Willie Soon har å si til dette.
Det viser seg faktisk ved en analyse av 12 000 forskningsrapporter at bare 0,3% av dem er enige med de amerikanske aktivistene og med Cicero i at vi har forårsaket det meste av den globale oppvarmingen i siste halvdel av forrige århundre. Det er en betydelig avstand fra vitenskap til propaganda.
Men Cicero formidler et helt annet bilde: «CICERO-forskere bidro til denne sannheten i 2013 og 2014, da de som forfattere av FNs klimapanel deltok i publiseringen av den femte hovedrapporten om klima (AR5), en oppsummering av verdens ledende klimaforskning.»
Folk flest vet at det er tilstrekkelig avstand mellom 0,3% og 97% til at man kan konkludere med at Cicero her har kommet i skade for å forveksle løgn og sannhet. Det er forøvrig helt ukontroversielt at mennesket kan påvirke klimaet i triviell grad i forhold til naturen selv som alltid har sørget for at klimaet har endret seg.
I tillegg unnlater Cicero å fortelle oss at definisjonen av “ledende klimaforskning” i IPCC-leiren er noe spesiell siden all kritikk av det de selv ønsker å fremheve som ledende, kan avvises uansett hvor faglig ledende ledende kritikeren måtte være.
Listen over ledende klimaforskere som har brutt med FNs klimapanel og istedet funnet veien til det Ikke-statlige klimapanelet (NIPCC) er svært lang.
Villedende også om temperatur
Deretter villeder Cicero om temperaturen ved å skjule at FNs klimapanel i sin siste hovedrapport drøftet det reelle opphøret av global oppvarming siste 15-20 år. Riktignok ble det drøftet som «The Hiatus» – pausen – da både Cicero og klimapanelet ikke lar det være noen tvil om at de vet at det må bli varmere når pausen er over. Uærligheten var omfattende, fordi de unnlot å opplyse om at den gjenværende trenden var mindre enn usikkerheten i målingene og prøvde å selge opphøret som en lavere akselerasjon i oppvarmingen.
Den lengste temperaturserien vi har fra termometre er fra det sentrale England siden 1649. Den viser tydelig store årlige variasjoner i gjennomsnittlig temperatur, men det er svært vanskelig å få øye på noen skremmende global oppvarming.
Den vanligste metoden for å villede oss er å blåse opp den vertikale skalaen for temperatur, det blir mange bratte kurver med tidels grader Celsius. Det er også ganske vanlig å komme med rekorder i temperatur, mens man ved et pussig sammentreff glemmer å opplyse om at måleusikkerheten er mange ganger så stor som rekorden. Dermed kan man med kreativ ordbruk få kurver som den vist her til å fremstå som et skremmende tilfelle av global oppvarming.
Politiseringen av temperaturdata er forøvrig drøftet her av klimaforsker Judith Curry.
Cicero blander sammen vær og klima
Men ikke nok med dette, Cicero følger opp i sitt oppslag med å blande sammen vær og klima. Og forskerstaben ved Cicero har tydeligvis forventninger når de skriver: «Etter den kraftige temperaturøkningen de siste to-tre årene er temperaturutviklingen nå mer i tråd med hva forskerne forventer.»
Andre steder observerer man og trekker konklusjoner på grunnlag av observasjonene:
Alle vet at tilfeldige omslag i været kan påvirke temperaturen på kort sikt. Det mest kjente væromslag er El Nino hvor havets øverste lag avgir varme til nedre del av atmosfæren.(Se KN 120 for en vitenskapelig beskrivelse). Planeten vår blir ikke varmere av dette, den blir tvertimot kaldere etter hvert som varmen stiger opp i atmosfæren og forlater den.
Forholder man seg til høykvalitets temperaturmåling fra satellitter og værballonger med radiosonder (6 ulike sett med data som alle stemmer overens), så ser man at det har vært en pause i oppvarmingen med en varmerekord i februar 2016, og etter dette har lavere atmosfære blitt betraktelig kjøligere – ikke varmere som Cicero later til å hevde. Trenden i snart 20 år er klar, som vist i figuren fra en senatshøring i USA høsten 2015.
Men Cicero velger å forholde seg til data av lavere kvalitet tatt fra termometre på bakken, som ofte viser temperaturer forurenset av urbane varmeøyer. Og som kan være utsatt for menneskelig administrativ global oppvarming
Og enhver statistiker vet at skal man kartlegge den langsiktige trenden i temperatur, så må man vente til slike tilfeldige væromslag er over.
Haves varmes – bemerkelsesverdig lite
Vi har bare sammenlignbare høykvalitetsdata for havtemperatur ca 12 år tilbake, og som figuren viser er varmetrenden så svak at det vil ta 430 år med samme trend før de øverste 1900 meter av havet har blitt 1 grad varmere.
Man trenger ikke være klimaforsker for å forstå at det er svært lite overbevisende å bruke dette som bevis for en klimakrise som det ikke er mulig å observere på andre måter.
Faktisk inneholder havet nesten 95% av den samlede energien i atmosfære og hav, så figuren over kan lese – hvis trenden fortsetter – slik at det vil ta flere hundre år før 1,5 – graders målet i Parisavtalen blir nådd.
Og i det området hvor havets temperatur betyr noe for oss i Norge, det Nordøstlige Atlanterhav, har det blitt merkbart kaldere (ca 0,7 grader i de øvre 700 meter) de siste 10 årene, som vist hos Climate4you.com. Men det vil ikke Cicero snakke om.
Smelter isen?
Det gjør den hver gang det er sommer i Arktis. Så fryser det til igjen hver høst som beskrevet her. Isminimum i 2016 i Arktis er på samme nivå som i 2007, og det betyr at det ikke har minket på is i Arktis overhodet på hele 9 år, målt ved det årlige isminimum i september. At isen i Arktis er stabil bekreftes av en analyse i KN 141 av Jan-Erik Solheim.
Så har vi isen i Antarktis som jevnt og trutt har økt, og som Cicero unnlater å nevne. Den ledende NASA-forskeren Jay Zwally har analysert Antarktis og konkludert med at «den betydelige akkumulasjonen av is på land i Antarktis isolert sett medfører en havnivåsenkning på 0,23 mm pr år.»
Slikt går på tvers av Ciceros forventninger. At 90 % av all is på kloden vår faktisk bidrar til et lavere havnivå er ikke noe Cicero til nå har ønsket å meddele offentligheten.
Blir havet surere?
Den påståtte havforsuringen fremheves ofte fra IPCC-leiren. Her ignorerer man at det ikke eksisterer data som bekrefter påstanden som dermed blir en rent politisk påstand.. Se KN 95 og Morten Jødal her.
Man ignorerer at havet er så grunnleggende basisk at det aldri kan bli surt (havforsuring en kjemisk umulighet iht Tom V. Segalstad) grunnet mineralbufferne i havet, i motsetning til regnvannet som er surt.
Et pikant faktum i denne sammenheng er at klimamodellene alle baserer sine profetier på bruk av destillert vann i modellen istedet for det vannet som er i havet.
Cicero villeder ved å spre uviten
I realiteten bygger Cicero og tilsvarende institusjoner opp myter bygd på uviten. Resultatet er at man får etablert denne uviten til fortrengsel for sunn naturvitenskap.
Igjen lever Cicero opp til sitt opprinnelige navn, og man kan ha en viss sympati for denne intense virksomheten som har som hovedmål å beskytte egne posisjoner. Men dette har lite med vitenskap å gjøre.
Forsvinner arter?
Artsutryddelsen er et siste eksempel på tvilsom formidling fra Cicero. All seriøs analyse viser en sterkt avtagende trend når det gjelder arter som forsvinner. Man kan stille et elementært kontrollspørsmål når påstanden dukker opp: hva heter disse artene som skal ha forsvunnet i moderne tid?
Da får man historien om modellert fremtidig artsutryddelse.
Troverdig?
Administrativ artsutryddelse
I tillegg til de få artene som dør ut har man arter som av IPCC-leiren utryddes ved hjelp av administrativ manipulasjon i form av “forskning” som simpelthen erklærer en art for å være utryddet på tvers av alle regler og uten noen etiske kjøreregler.
Her er for eksempel bildet av sneglearten som ble erklært utryddet fra Seychellene i 2007, Kompetente forskere sa klart fra at denne sneglearten ville bli gjenoppdaget, men IPCC-leiren ville ikke lytte. De hindret istedet at kritikken ble publisert.
Som beskrevet både i USA og i Dagsavisen har denne sneglen oppført seg politisk ukorrekt ved å gjenoppstå fra de døde etter at noen med utsøkt Erasmus Montanus-logikk trengte en utryddet art som bevis for den påståtte artsutryddelse.
Har Cicero noen gang skrevet om artene som blir erklært utryddet ved menneskeskapt administrativ manipulasjon og som senere viser seg å ha det helt utmerket i sitt opprinnelige habitat?
Professor Richard Lindzen (meteorologi M.I.T.) har oppsummert denne typen informasjonsvirksomhet for oss:
I think it’s [concern about global warming] mainly just like little kids locking themselves in dark closets to see how much they can scare each other and themselves.
Det er rimelig å spørre om Cicero-leder Kristin Halvorsen er fornøyd med kvaliteten på det som skrives i sitt “Institutt for Klimapolitikk”. Kanskje trengs det en opprydning i egne rekker?
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Interesting perspective. I’ve been following the climate debate for a while, and it’s refreshing to see a post that questions the mainstream narrative rather than just repeating it. Do you think the lack of certainty in climate models is often overlooked in public discussions?