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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/10/22/ciceros-forunderlige-reise-1/
Cicero’s forunderlige reise – 1
- oktober 22, 2022
- 17:58
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk
- Stikkord: Klimadebatt
Forfattet av Dr. Philos Erik Bye
Erik Bye er en av veteranene i norsk klimadebatt, med tallrike meningsutvekslinger fra et naturfaglig ståsted med klimaindustriens talspersoner. Dette er en oppsummering hvor Bye fokuserer på de to lederne som har gjort mest for å forme både Cicero og klimadebatten i Norge de siste 20 årene. Her er del 1 med Pål Prestrud og hans vulgærpolitiske retorikk, og senere kommer del 2 med Kristin Halvorsen og hennes mer effektive snikende politisering av klimadebatten. Essensen her er hvor fjernt fra naturvitenskapen Cicero befinner seg, med detaljene i den enkelte lenke til eldre debattartikler.
Opprettelsen av IPCC
I perioden 1945 – 1975 var det global nedkjøling. Da ropte klimaforskerne varsko om en ny mulig istid. I perioden 1975 – 1985 snudde det med stigende temperaturer, og det ble ropt varsko om global oppvarming. Sentral i begge varslingsakene var James Hansen, direktør i GISS (Goddard Institute Space Studies).
Riktignok er 10 år svært kort tid til å bygge opp hypoteser rundt menneskeskapte klimaendringer. WMO har 30 år som standard for å fastsette normaltemperaturen: 1961 – 1990 og nå 1991 – 2020. Men dette var ikke til hinder for å etablere Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, med følgende formålsparagraf (objective):
«Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). The objective of the IPCC is to provide governments on all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies».
Dette klimapanelet skal altså bidra til utvikling av klimapolitikk, stort nærmere en fastslåing av menneskelig påvirkning på klimaet skal vanskelig la seg gjøre. Den første hovedrapporten (FAR) til FNs Klimapanel, forelå i 1990.
Opprettelsen av CICERO
CICERO ble opprettet av regjeringen Brundtland i 1990 for å styrke det nasjonale forsknings- og utredningsarbeidet på området. Et av hensynene bak opprettingen var å bedre det faglige underlaget for norske myndigheter ved utforming og gjennomføring av internasjonale klimaavtaler. Instituttet fikk navnet «CICERO Senter for klimaforskning», med denne setningen i formålsparagrafen:
«… å fremskaffe kunnskap som kan bidra til å løse det menneskeskapte klimaproblemet».
Her er det ingen tvil, vi har menneskeskapte klimaproblemer, og det skal CICERO bidra til å løse! Tenkt plassert på UiO kunne vi ha forventninger om at svaret på forskningen ikke var gitt på forhånd. Derfor er det ikke underlig at Universitetet ikke ville ha et slikt politisk kontor, innenfor sine forskningsprogrammer. Men regjeringen Brudtland utstedte et tvangsdekret som UiO måtte avfinne seg med.
Her gjør CICERO for det første den store feilen å blande miljø og klima. Miljøet kan menneskene gjøre noe med, klimaet er et kaotisk system som naturen styrer. CICERO holder fortsatt på at det er reelle klimaproblemer som menneskene kan gripe inn i og rydde opp i. De har bestemt at vi har klimaproblemer pga. menneskelig aktivitet. Blir det grunnforskning eller politisk «forskning»?
Flere direktører
Ted Hanisch var direktør for CICERO i perioden 1990 – 1993. Deretter overtok Helga Hernes for perioden 1993 – 1996 og Knut H Alfsen var direktør i perioden 1997 – 2002. Til tross for uroen rundt etableringen på Universitetet og motstanden mot den provoserende formålsparagrafen, var det stille rundt CICERO forøvrig. Det var først da Pål Prestrud overtok (2002 – 2012), at oppmerksomheten om instituttet økte. Det ble stilt kritiske spørsmål til arbeidet til IPCC og Pål Prestrud markerte seg som en tydelig «ordfører». Han var biolog, spesialist på polarrev og var den som representerte CICERO i klimafaglige debatter. Han var en tøff debattant, og vek ikke unna for ufinheter og personangrep.
En levende og heftig klimadebatt
Jeg ble kjent med CICEROs virksomhet like før 2010. Da var det åpenbart at reminisenser av den første formålsparagrafen «skaffe data til menneskeskapte klimaproblemer», stadig hang igjen i veggene. Mer om uforskning senere.
På dette tidspunktet var det en omfattende, levende og en heftig klimadebatt i presse og andre media i Norge. Mange medier hadde debattfora: forskning.no , Aftenposten, VG, Dagbladet, Dagsavisen og Klassekampen hadde alle godt med spalteplass. Aftenposten, Dagbladet, VG, Klassekampen, Dagsavisen og Morgenbladet tok inn både kronikker og store og små artikler/bidrag. Dette i sterk kontrast til hvordan det er nå, noe jeg kommer tilbake til.
Et av klimafenomenene som skapte debatt, flere ganger, var værfenomenet El Ninjo. I 1998 hadde vi en veldig kraftig varmetopp, og klimaforskerne sverget til at dette var uttrykk for ekstrem global oppvarming. I 2008 kom det et morsomt og utålmodig utspill fra professor (emeritus) Sigbjørn Grønås:
«Aukande temperatur – når kjem det ny rekord»? forskning.no (11. februar 2008.)
Han hadde rekorden til El Niño i 1998 i tankene. Og han mente at dersom det ikke kom ny rekord snart, var det noe feil med klimamodellene. Et slikt utspill skapte selvfølgelig både debatt og humor. Litt som å skite i eget reir? Og feil på feil, El Niño er et naturlig værfenomen, og ikke forutsigbart. Det å vurdere værfenomenet El Niño som en del av klimaendringene skapte nok litt hoderysting. Og, dersom vi legger til at klima ikke kan forutsies, og at klimamodellene kum er framskrivinger som fører til ulike valgbare scenarier, så er utspillet tilstrekkelig omtalt. Allerede her begynte det: Ganske drøy kost …
CO2 er en forurensning
I en debatt, påsto Prestrud at CO2 var en forurensning, noe alle verdens biologer var enige om, i følge ham. Og til tross for å være en livsnødvendig gass for fotosyntesen og noe menneskene puster ut (0.4 tonn i året pr. hode), var han urokkelig i at CO2 var en forurensning. Her er to eksempler på denne ufaglige staheten:
«CICERO ødelegger klimadebatten.» abc nyheter 7 oktober 2010
«Erik Bye desinformerer om klima.» abc nyheter 13 oktober 2010.
At en biolog og leder for et forskningsinstitutt var så dårlig informert om gassen CO2 var svært overraskende, og faktisk helt uforklarlig! Ganske drøy kost …
Hvem kan uttale seg om klimaet?
Pål Prestrud gjorde forsøk på å kneble muligheten for deltakelse i klimadebatten, ved å stille spørsmålet: «Hvem kan uttale seg om klimaet»? Pål Prestrud ville selv bestemme: Bare de som forsket på klima kunne uttale seg! Det skulle gjelde alle, bare ikke Prestrud selv, som selv ikke tilfredstilte dette kravet. Snakk om å kaste stein i glasshuset! Her må jeg illustrere dette med et motsvar til Rasmus Benestad. De tre institusjonene CICERO, Bjerknessenteret og Meteorologisk institutt var tett sammensveiset og særlig Benestad hadde en profil som lå nær opp til Prestruds hersketeknikk «Dette er pinlig Benestad.», (Dagsavisen, 8. desember 2013). Her blir klimaforskerne truffet av kriteriet til Prestrud og Benestad, selvskudd. Bjørn Samset, Pål Prestrud, og Knut Alfsen rammes av Benestads angrep på Pål Brekke. Ganske drøy kost …
Klima omfatter mange fag
Klima er ikke noe fakultetsfag, men består av: kjemi, fysikk, oceanografi, meteorologi, geologi, geokjemi, hydrologi, astrofysikk, astronomi, biologi, zoologi, biokjemi, samt statistikk og modellering. Det finnes selvfølgelig ikke den professoren som kunne være førsteforfatter på artikler fra så mange ulike fagfelt. Derfor må man samarbeide. Arbeider en innenfor ett av feltene, og studerer problemstillinger opp mot klima, er det en selvfølge at topp forskere kan uttale seg om klimaspørsmål. Den virkelig kompetente kloke professoren vet hvor sin kompetansegrense går. Dette betyr at mange er med i debatten, og hersketeknikken hadde ingen virkning. Strengt tatt virket det heller mot sin hensikt, lett hoderysting. Her mistet Prestrud både tillit og autoritet i debatten. Ganske drøy kost …
Jeg hadde flere debatter med Prestrud i denne tiden. Artiklene ovenfor antyder litt om intensiteten og profilen på debatten.
Tobakksaken
Det som var forunderlig i denne debatten, var at også tobakksaken ble trukket inn i klimadebatten. Dette var forårsaket av utdelingen av Kavliprisen i 2010. Det ble hevdet at risikoen for helseskader ved tobakksrøyking kunne sammenliknes med risikoen for ødeleggelser ved menneskeskapte klimaendringer. Det ble gjentatt og gjentatt: «Føre var», «Føre var» og «handling under risiko», med tanke på klimaet. En mer fundamental misforståelse er det neppe mulig å begå, når det gjelder dokumentasjon i en vitenskapelig sak. Dokumentasjonen om tobakksskader var omfattende og entydig, mens dokumentasjonen i klimasaken manglet! Det var umulig å la dette ligge, når selv utenriksminister Jonas Gahr Støre falt for fristelsen:
«Støre desinformerer om tobakk og klima», TU 19. oktober 2010. Dette ble virkelig useriøst. Ganske drøy kost …
Dette minner om han som hadde følgende notater i margen på manuset sitt: hvis svakt argument, hev stemmen; hvis elendig argument, snakk fortere; og til slutt: hvis ren bløff, gå løs på motparten! Mantraet til Presthus i debatten var: «Du er useriøs! / De er useriøse»! Snakk om hersketeknikk!
Mange kan nok ønske seg tilbake til perioden 2000 – 2015, da vi hadde en levende debatt – nå er det taust, debatt-tørke!
CICEROs selvutnevnte myndighet i skolen
CICERO arbeidet ikke bare med «forskning» på denne tiden, de la ned mye tid i å bestride det vitenskapelige fundamentet og den vitenskapelige dokumentasjonen som klimarealismen ble bygget på.
I 2012 sendte Klimarealistene sitt hefte «Det er naturen og ikke mennesket som styrer klimaet» til alle Videregående skoler i Norge. Vedlagt var et brev til rektorene, med et ønske om at heftet ble tatt inn i undervisningen om klimaet. Dette fant foreningen helt nødvendig, for å bryte med den vranglæren som pågikk. Gjett om dette skapte rabalder.
CICERO, Bjerknessenteret og Meteorologisk institutt (CBM), ved sine direktører, gikk i rette med dette utspillet, og krevde at heftet IKKE ble inkludert i undervisningen. Her er noe av korrespondansen (20. august 2012) fra den trehodete koalisjonen (CBM). Det var åpenbart CICERO som førte saken.
Dette er selvfølgelig ikke noen liten, enkel, uformell sak, som bare involverer Klimarealistene, de tre institusjonene CBM og alle rektorene i VGS i Norge. Det er en prinsippiell sak om hvem som bestemmer undervisningsmaterialet i norsk skole. Det normale er at en eller flere forfattere skriver en lærebok. Denne boken gjennomgår ingen kvalitetskontroll når boken er trykket. Det er rådgiverne til forfatter som bistår under skrivingen. Boken blir presentert i de vanlige lærebok-kanaler. Lærerne velger og vraker blant det som finnes, selvfølgelig i samarbeid med alle faglærere på skolen og kanskje med rektor, dersom vedkommende har kompetanse til å vurdere didaktikken. Deretter blir bøkene brukt i undervisningen. Så langt jeg kjenner til er det ikke normalt at annen litteratur legges til grunn.
Derfor var det litt av et eksperiment Klimarealistene gikk løs på, ved å anbefale sitt hefte brukt som tilleggslitteratur. Men det eksisterer intet forbud mot å tilby tilleggslitteratur. Men dette reagerte altså de tre forskningsinstitusjonene på. Med hvilken rett? Hva tenkte de når de skulle bestemme at heftet til KR ikke skulle brukes? Dette viser med all tydelighet at de tre institusjonene ikke hadde magemål! Det hele endte vel uten at heftet ble tatt i bruk. Og det kan godt tenkes at angrepet fra de tre institusjonene var hovedgrunnen til dette. Men denne saken sier noe om en innbilt, påtatt styringsrolle, som bare vekker hoderysting og tap av tillit. Ganske drøy kost …
Mytene
Noe CICERO la mye vekt på, var at motstanderne bare opererte med myter. Dette omtaler CICERO, blant annet i disse 15 myter om sine klimamotstandere: «15 myter om klimaendringer», senest oppdatert 12.mai 2022. De første mytene dukket opp i 2008, da CICERO, Bjerknessenteret og Meteorologisk institutt gikk sammen om: «Myter om klimaet», 6. mai 2008, (Bjerknessenteret).
Slike myter ble hele tiden oppdatert, åpenbart at de har følt en trussel fra motparten. Egentlig både rart og underholdende, når en tenker på instituttets retorikk! Den mest klassiske myten er nok denne i illustrasjonen ovenfor, som da er basert på motstandernes påstand, fra 2008.
Fra siste mytesamlingen er nok denne myten et ganske avslørende eksempel, igjen noe motstanderne hevder:
Påstand: De naturlige variasjoner er fortsatt den dominerende faktor i vår tids klimaendringer.
Her kan jeg bare anbefale å lese, og ta inn over seg alle krumspring som blir gjort av desperate institusjoner, antakelig for ikke å bli avslørt med meningsløs klimateori. Og husk, dette er de tre mest profilerte klimainstitusjoner i Norge, som kaller og oppfatter seg som vitenskapelige forskningsinstitusjoner.
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En iyi medyum olarak bir danışman için medyum haluk hocayı seçin en iyi medyum hocalardan bir tanesidir.
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