by Hentet:
https://klimarealistene.com/dagsvik-fra-statistisk-sentralbyra-har-rett/
Dagsvik fra Statistisk sentralbyrå har rett
Klimanytt nr. 347 Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Stein Storlie Bergsmark.
Dagsvik og Moen fra SSB har valgt data fra NASAs temperaturdatabase ut ifra vitenskapelige kriterier og anvendt korrekt metodikk i sin analyse. Resultatene viser at dagens oppvarming ligger innenfor rammen av naturlige variasjoner. IPCCs CO2-hypotese kan ikke forklare variasjonene.
Svein Sundby skriver torsdag 5. oktober i forskningssonen.no at «Dagsviks knappe 100 værstasjoner blir ganske puslete for å beskrive jordas gjennomsnittstemperatur», og hevder at målinger fra 6 prosent av jordens overflate ikke kan være representative for gjennomsnittstemperaturen på jorda.
Analysepremisser
I Dagsviks analyse kan man ikke bruke globale temperaturserier som HadCRUT4, der tallmaterialet til stadighet blir homogenisert og hvor antall og målepunkter stadig varierer. Rundt 1880 var det 500 målestasjoner, omkring 1970 nådde man en topp på over 5000 stasjoner, mens det i 2018 bare var så vidt over 2000 stasjoner. HadCRUT4 kan ikke brukes ved test av stasjonaritet.
Det er ikke et mål å ha global dekning, men å etablere et sett av fast lokaliserte målestasjoner som ikke endres over tid. Sertifiserte data fra NASA ble derfor samlet inn, med temperaturserier fra 1256 værstasjoner i mer enn 100 land. Utvalget ble deretter snevret inn og hovedkriteriet var kvalitet, lengde og minst mulig hull i seriene. Forfatterne valgte ut 96 temperaturserier fra 32 land, som tilfredsstilte kriteriene. Mange av tidsseriene går lenger tilbake enn starten på den moderne oppvarmingen rundt 1890, og ni av de utvalgte temperaturseriene går helt tilbake til 1760. Nær sagt alle Dagsviks temperaturserier viser tydelig oppvarmingen som har skjedd etter 1975 på samme måte som HadCRUT4. Dette tyder ikke på tendensiøs seleksjon.
Resultater og årsaker
Dagsvik viste at temperaturseriene utviser de samme karakteristika som en fraktal gaussisk støymodell, og at hypotesen om stasjonaritet ikke ble forkastet. Man fant derfor ingen systematiske avvik som kunne skyldes utslipp av CO2. Konklusjonen ble at temperaturutviklingen er forenlig med naturlig variasjon.
Sundby drøfter naturlige klimavariasjoner som den Nord-Atlantiske Oscillasjonen (NAO) og hevder at temperaturdata i Dagsviks seleksjon blir påvirket av denne. Dette er ikke et problem, Sundby viser til et viktig periodisk naturfenomen, som er noe Dagsvik ønsker å fange opp.
Videre hevder Sundby at vi ved å bruke eksempelvis HadCRUT4 kan sile ut naturlig variasjon og rendyrke det menneskeskapte signalet som skyldes økende CO2-utslipp. Det er imidlertid ikke mulig ved observasjon å skille menneskeskapt og utslippsdrevet temperatur verken gjennom analyse av HadCRUT4 eller på noen annen måte. Det er tilstrekkelig å betrakte temperaturserien fra HadCRUT4 (figur i climate4you.com) , som viser at den tidlige perioden fra 1895 – 1943 har om lag samme temperaturkarakteristika og samme økning som den senere perioden fra 1957 – 2005. Men i den siste perioden var utslippene 6 ganger høyere enn i den første, samtidig som den teoretiske varmevirkningen fra CO2 var flere ganger større! Dette viser at det er umulig å fastslå om temperaturøkningen etter 1880-årene skyldes utslipp eller naturlig variasjon.
Modellberegninger
Når man hevder å kunne skille naturlig og menneskeskapt oppvarming skjer dette ved hjelp av modellbaserte temperaturscenarier. Her bruker man imidlertid en sirkelargumentasjon. Man hevder rett og slett at naturlig variasjon sluttet å gjøre seg gjeldende i 1950. Ergo må all temperaturøkning etter 1950 være menneskeskapt.
Flere forskere har vist at klimamodellene feiler, modellenes temperaturprojeksjoner viser altfor høye verdier. McKitrick og Christy (2020) undersøkte 38 modeller i CMIP6-utslippsscenario (brukt i AR6) og resultatene er vist på figuren nedenfor. Modellprojeksjonene (forecasts) er vist med rødt mens observasjonene er vist med blått, og den midlere trenden fra satellittmålingene fra UAH med en horisontal stiplet linje. Det er tydelig at modellprojeksjonene er feilaktige, med altfor høye temperaturer og en spredning på 300 prosent.
Modellene feiler
(Avsnitt redigert 25.okt, kl 11.38) Så vil en rekke norske klimaforskere hevde at modellene er korrekte, men den 19. september 2017 kunne vi lese i The Times: «We were wrong – worst effects of climate change can be avoided, say scientists». Avisen fortalte om en ny forskningsartikkel publisert i Nature Geoscience, som viste at temperaturen hadde økt mindre enn modellprojeksjonene. Professor Myles Allen var en av forfatterne og han uttalte. «Vi har ikke sett den raske akselerasjon i oppvarming etter 2000 som vi ser i modellene. Vi har ikke sett dette i observasjonene». Allen er en meget innflytelsesrik modellforsker, han leder ‘Climate Dynamics Group’ ved Oxford University og er ansvarlig for ‘Climate modelling and attribution’. Han har også vært hovedforfatter i flere av rapportene til IPCC.
En av medforfatterne,, professor Michael Grubb, vedga også at hans tidligere prediksjoner hadde vært feilaktige Dette oppsiktsvekkende oppslaget ble aldri nevnt i norske media (med ett unntak, i Aftenbladet) , selv om det ble funnet verdig til publikasjon i The Times.
Også Dr. Christopher Essex, prof. em. i matematikk og fysikk, har vist at datamaskinbaserte modeller ikke kan forutsi klimaet over mange titalls år. Han viser at klimaproblemet er altfor stort og at datamaskinene er altfor små og langsomme til å gjøre tilstrekkelig gode simuleringer av klimasystemet. Mange klimaprosesser må tilnærmes ved hjelp av såkalte parametriseringer, tilnærmelser som er avhengig av modellbyggerens subjektive syn på prosessene. Og dette er bare en av årsakene til at temperaturprojeksjonene spriker så mye som de gjør. Også forståelsen og modelleringen av skyene bidrar til problemene. Skydekket ‘bestemmer’ hvor mye kortbølget stråling som blir absorbert av jorden. En liten endring i skydekket har derfor stor innflytelse på jordens energibalanse.
De monumentale modellproblemene er også kommentert i to artikler i det velrennomerte tidsskriftet Science. Den 27. juli 2021 skriver Paul Voosen om problemene under overskriften «U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming» og den 4. mai 2022 under overskriften «Use of ‘too hot’ climate models exaggerates impact of global warming».
Vi har også rekonstruerte data som viser at korrelasjonen mellom temperatur og CO2 er spuriøs eller negativ. Prøver fra utborede iskjerner i Antarktis viser at det er temperatur som driver CO2. Temperaturen endres først, så endres CO2-konsentrasjonen 500 – 1000 år senere. Iskjerneprøver fra Grønland viser for eksempel at over de siste 6000 år har temperaturen vist en negativ trend, mens CO2-konsentrasjonen har en positiv trend.
Har vi grunn til å frykte en dramatisk temperaturstigning i årene som kommer? En regresjonsmodell over nettopp HadCRUT4 viser en trend på 0,0053 grader per år. En ekstrapolasjon fra 2023 til 2100 gir en temperaturøkning på 0,41 grader. En tilsvarende ekstrapolasjon på satellittserien fra UAH gir en økning over samme tidsperiode på 1,0 grader. Dette gir ingen grunn til bekymring.
Dagsvik drøfter kompleksiteten i klimamodellene uten å skrive noe om hvor gode de er på projeksjoner. Det er derimot viktig å legge merke til at han drøfter hvor godt klimamodellene kan reprodusere tidligere temperaturer (hindcasting). Han viser f.eks. til Beenstock m. fl. (2016) som har studert 22 utvalgte klimamodeller. En hypotese om at avviket mellom reproduserte og observerte temperaturer er en stasjonær prosess måtte forkastes.
Konklusjon
Ingen av de 22 modellene reproduserte historiske data. Resultatet er oppsiktsvekkende, og reiser alvorlig tvil om klimamodellenes evne til både å produsere hindcasts og forecasts for det globale klimaet. Temperaturmålingene kan forklares med naturlige variasjoner alene, men ikke kun basert på CO2-økning. Men usikkerheten i målingene er betydelig uten at det formidles.
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