by
https://universitas.no/sak/61059/den-store-klimabloffen/
Den store klimabløffen
Dei er intelligente og høgt utdanna, men trur ikkje på global oppvarming. Dette er Klimarealistene.
– Eg la merke til at forskarar og vitskapsmenn sa noko anna til meg på bakrommet enn dei sa på foredrag. Eg kunne spora ein viss frykt for å sei ting rett ut, seier Nicolay Stang, tidlegare leiar i Klimarealistene.
Han sit på Domus Academica i Oslo sentrum, rett ved sidan av auditoriet som var fullt sist gong Klimarealistene arrangerte eit foredrag. Nicolay Stang har ivrig vist oss rundt, og beklaga at han såg litt ubarbert ut i dag – barberhøvelen knakk på morgonkvisten – medan Ole Henrik Ellestad, eit anna sentralt medlem av Klimarealistene, har rusla saman med oss i eit roleg tempo, og lagt til kommentarar der det passar seg.
Til dømes at klimadebatten har ei slagside. Klimarealistene er imot at det store fleirtalet i verda har akseptert menneskeskapt global oppvarming og klimakrisa som ei sanning, og ser på FN sitt klimapanel (IPCC) som motstandarar. Ifølgje NASA, ei kjelde som Ellestad og Stang sjølv pleier å referera til, er 97 prosent av forskarane som aktivt blir publisert i forskingstidskrift, einige om at global oppvarming eksisterer, og at det siste tiåret har vore det varmaste nokon gong.
Slike undersøkingar aksepterer ikkje Stang og Ellestad – dei meiner slike tal for lengst er nedsabla, og at det aldri vil vera ein slik konsensus i forskinga. Når Ellestad og Stang snakkar om klima, blir det trekt parallellar til Sovjetunionen og totalitære ideologiar. Men dei vil ikkje kallast konspirasjonsteoretikarar. Ellestad gestikulerer og teiknar kurver. Det aldrande ansiktet har fått ein del rynker, men det hindrar ikkje den professorale autoriteten i å skinna gjennom når han snakkar. Stang sit på sida, på kanten av stolen og rett i ryggen, og bryter inn der han føler det er nødvendig. Det han manglar i fagleg tyngde når ein samanliknar med Ellestad, tek han igjen i grundig research.
Begge er spesielt skeptiske til korleis klimadebatten blir framstilt i media, og dei meiner det hovudsakleg er der ein er overtydd om at global oppvarming eksisterer.
– Det blir sagt at me får for mykje plass i media – men me får berre små avsnitt av og til som svar til IPCC-leiren, seier Ellestad, medan han lener seg over bordet og slår ut dei lange armane sine.
Han er utdanna fysikalsk kjemikar og har spesialisert seg på infraraud stråling og molekyl – mykje av det drivhuseffekten består av. Han har vore områdedirektør i Forskingsrådet, for naturvitskap og teknologi ved høgskular og universitet, og han har vore forskingsdirektør i SINTEF. CV-en er lengre, og det er gode grunnar til å lytta når han snakkar. Kvifor trur han, og resten av Klimarealistene, at global oppvarming ikkje eksisterer?
– Einigheita du seier er der, har aldri vore der. Kva baserer du det på? Det er blant anna eit resultat av at debatten er erklært ferdig. Det er, som Gro Harlem Brundtland sa, umoralsk å tvila, seier Stang.
– Kor kjem desse dramatiske tala frå? Det kjem frå hovudet, og ikkje teorien. Vitskaplege publikasjonar som er basert på langtidsobservasjonar er på vår side, medan mange på den andre sida støttar seg på ikkje-verifiserte modellar. Det er den faglege debatten, så sporar det av, legg Ellestad til.
– Så du seier rundt halvparten av forskarane er einige med dykk?
– Det er eit skilje her mellom dei få som jobbar med den grunnleggande teorien om stråling og vekselsverknad i atmosfæren, og alle dei andre som veljer å tru på IPCC sine konklusjonar. Dei bidreg ikkje til bevis, berre til stemmetalet, seier Ellestad. Det finst ikkje spor av tvil i stemma hans.
– Eg sit med ei klar kjensle av at journalistane har kjøpt ein tanke om å redda verda. Korleis dei kom dit, kan ein spekulera mykje i, men det har inga hensikt, seier Ellestad.
Han og Stang er samde i at norske media skil seg ut no – dei meiner fleire vakna opp etter «Climategate» i 2009 (sjå faktaboks), og refererer mellom anna til tyske Der Spiegel, der fleire skeptikarar slepp til i spaltene.
Både Stang og Ellestad renn over av argument for at global oppvarming berre er pølsevev. Temaet engasjerer, og tida renn ut fort – begge klimarealistane kjempar om å få inn eit siste argument før klokka slår. Det endar med at me gjer ein ny avtale – denne gongen med berre Nicolay Stang, på tur rundt Sognsvann, der frosten har lagt seg.
Det kryr av folk. Pølser og vaffel i ei hand, og hundeband i den andre, medan Nicolay Stang snakkar om overbefolkning og ressursknappheit. Han går tur med to hundar, som han luftar for mor si kvar søndag. Stang har engasjert seg i klimadebatten lenge, og var tidlegare på den «andre sida».
– Eg trur eg har stemt på Dei Grøne ein gong, men det må du helst ikkje skriva, seier han og ler.
Han fortel om fleire vener som vart forferda då han byrja å stilla spørsmål rundt klimaet. Det skjedde i 2007, og han vart raskt engasjert i Klimarealistene då dei starta opp i 2008. I dag er han leiar for møteutvalet i organisasjonen, og har trappa ned på organisasjonsarbeidet. Han jobbar i eigedomsavdelinga til UiO, og er utdanna innan idéhistorie og språkfag. Likevel føler han seg kvalifisert til å snakka om klima – han kallar seg ikkje ein spesialist, og kjenner avgrensingane sine på feltet. Han brukar berre mykje tid på research.
– Eg føler det ikkje er langt unna at eg brukar 20 timar i døgnet på klima. Så jobbar underbevisstheita dei siste fire timane eg søv. Det er utmattande, seier han.
Mykje av tida går med på å få motstandarar til å stilla i debattar, for at Klimarealistene skal bli tatt på alvor. Før deltok han meir i den offentlege debatten. Det har han kutta ned på, og fortel at han har slutta med å lesa morgonavisa. I staden les han om klimaet. Det store engasjementet krediterer han til interessa for vitskap, historie og teoriar.
– Ein skulle kanskje tru at det er dei som meiner me står framfor ein farleg situasjon, som skulle engasjera seg veldig, og ikkje den som meiner dette kan vera eit skinnproblem. Dette kan faktisk skapa store problem for oss, fordi me fokuserer på feil problem.
Stang meiner det ikkje finst ein typisk klimarealist – medlemmane kjem frå alle politiske leirar, til dømes. Men på møta er det ei overvekt av eldre menn, det innrømmer han.
Medan me går vidare rundt vatnet, blir me ofte avbrotne av andre hundeeigarar. Dei spør om rase, om alder på hundane. Når me går tilbake til klimadebatten, refererer Nicolay Stang til økonomen Julian Simon, som meinte at folkeauke ikkje vil slita like hardt på naturlege ressursar som me fryktar.
– Han sa at det berre er ein ressurs me har knappheit av, og det er menneskeleg innovasjon.
– Men me vil jo gå tom for til dømes olje, sjølv om me har mykje no?
– Er du sikker på det? Dette er veldig omstridt, og ikkje alle Klimarealistene er einig med meg. Men er du sikker? Oljeprisane går ned, det er fordi me har eit overskot av olje.
Bjørn Samset, seniorforskar hos CICERO, senteret for klimaforsking i Noreg, er sikker. Før eller seinare vil me gå tom for olje, mener han, men det er ikkje det som er problemet.
– No har me lager av kol som kan forsyna dagens forbruk i fleire hundre år, men diverre får me ei global oppvarming som er langt utanfor det som er akseptabelt, lenge før det er eit problem at me går tom.
Samset har diskutert klima med Klimarealistene fleire gonger før – og blitt utskjelt av dei. Likevel ønskjer han skepsis velkommen, og meiner ideen bak er god. Men akkurat Klimarealistene er han ikkje så begeistra for – han meiner dei har fått eit par problem.
– Dei startar med ein konklusjon om at naturlege svingingar styrer klimaet, og målet er å ekskludera svaret som fagmiljøet har komme fram til. Då er det vanskeleg å møtast. I tillegg er dei ikkje så mottakelege for svar. Dei kjem med veldig gode spørsmål, men svara når ikkje inn. Me får høyra dei same innvendingane mot svara gong på gong, seier Samset.
Han avviser ikkje alt Klimarealistene seier – dei har rett i at naturlege svingingar har ein effekt på klimaet, og at overflatetemperaturen ikkje har gått opp dei siste 15-20 åra.
– Men det har me sagt heile tida òg. Om noko endrar seg i klimaet, som alle er einige i at det gjer, må det ha ein grunn. Svingingane spelar definitivt ei rolle, men no dominerer auka påverknad av drivhusgassar, som gjer at det er viktigare, seier Samset.
Han trur det er gode grunnar til at Klimarealistene har fått dei problema han peikar på.
– Når ein grupperer seg og møter meiningsfeller, får ein veldig mykje feedback. Då blir synspunkta forsterka.
Tilbake på Sognsvann fortel Nicolay Stang om veneselskap der han arrangerte veddemål om at temperaturen faktisk hadde gått opp. Dei siste åra har han ikkje berre trappa ned på offentleg debatt, men også privat.
– Mange har blitt verkeleg sinte. Men eg kan vera litt provoserande i måten eg uttrykker meg på, svarar Stang.
Han er ikkje ein kverulant, understrekar han. Men han har vore ein aktiv deltakar i debatten, og det har hatt sine konsekvensar. Å argumentera for at global oppvarming ikkje eksisterer, gjer at ein stiller seg klar til hugg, fortel Stang. Men nettrolla, som han kallar motstandarane sine, har han lært seg å ikkje ta på alvor. I dag bryr han seg ikkje lenger om å bli utskjelt.
No førebur også Nicolay Stang seg ei klimatoppmøte i Paris i desember. Ikkje det offisielle toppmøtet som mange andre skal på, men eit alternativt toppmøte for skeptikarane.
– Eg er veldig nyfiken på kva som vil skje no, om me ikkje får den store temperaturauken fram mot 2040. Kva skjer då? Vil alarmistane krypa til korset? Det er eit interessant spørsmål.
Stang sjølv meiner det er lite som skal til for at han endrar sitt standpunkt.
– Det vil eg faktisk ikkje ha noko problem med. Om me får ei temperaturstiging som liknar litt om det alarmistane har varsla i løpet av dei neste to tiåra, vil eg revurdera standpunktet mitt.
Les mer: Miljønettverket Concerned Scientists er bekymret for at Universitetet i Oslo gir legitimitet til den «klimaskeptiske» organisasjonen Klimarealistene – ved å låne dem Universitetets lokaler.
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