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Det finnes ingen bevis på at menneskers utslipp av co₂ er årsak til global oppvarming
Dato opprettet: 17.09.2020
Sist oppdatert: 07.10.2020 kl. 10.38
Hvem som ytrer påstand: Carl I. Hagen
Påstand fra Carl I. Hagen:
“Det er påstått uten bevis fra eksperimenter eller akseptabel vitenskapelig teori at menneskers utslipp av den livgivende gassen CO2 kan bidra til en såkalt global (altså ikke lokal) oppvarming.”
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Kilder:
Kun folk som støtter prosjektet kan se kilder
Kilder “For” er kilder som støtter påstanden. Kilder “Mot” er kilder som motbeviser påstanden.
Bakgrunn for saken
Da Carl i Hagen ser på seg selv som en klimarealist og er aktiv i klimadebatten, skrev han på sin facebook side 1. januar 2020. “Det er påstått uten bevis fra eksperimenter eller akseptabel vitenskapelig teori at menneskers utslipp av den livgivende gassen CO₂ kan bidra til en såkalt global (altså ikke lokal) oppvarming.”
Faktisk.no lagde så en artikkel 14. januar 2020 basert på Carl i Hagens facebook innlegg hvor de påstår at dette er feil, og at det finnes slike bevis.
Faktiskfakta går saken etter i sømmene. Vi har samlet så mange kilder som mulig da en slik sak har en ganske stor vitenskapelig dimensjon. Skulle nye kilder eller fakta komme på bordet tar vi forbehold om at tall og utregninger kan endre seg.
Faktisk.no skriver: “Det finnes en stor mengde vitenskapelige studier og eksperimenter som tyder på at menneskelige utslipp bidrar til global oppvarming. Disse utgjør «bevis» for at slike utslipp kan føre til global oppvarming.”
Vi har jobbet hardt for å finne “store mengder bevis” og kilder som fysisk dokumenterer at mennesker er den direkte årsak til global oppvarming uten hell. Men vi har funnet masse bevis på at mennesker og den industrielle revolusjon har bidratt til mer co₂, men kan ikke finne noen steder at dette henger sammen som selvfølge med global oppvarming, eller er direkte pådriver på klimaendringer. Det vi finner er primært IPCC sin “konsensusrapport”, hvor det er “mange” underskrifter fra vitenskapsfolk. Mer om dette om litt.
For at en slik konklusjon skal kunne gjøres, må man definere “hva” mennesker påvirker klima med. Det er ikke alltid helt tydelig definert i ytringer. Gjengangeren er “utslipp”, “co₂” og “menneskeutslipp” osv. i kilder vi finner.
At mennesker slipper ut co₂ er nok ingen tvil om. Co₂ er en naturlig gass og er ufarlig (se egen fakta sak her)
Forskere har også konstatert at økt global oppvarming også bidrar til mer co₂. (fakta linker)
Drivhusgassen består i allhovedsak av mer vann enn co₂. (Se fakta kilde). Co₂ er derfor ikke hovedsynderen når vi snakker om grønnhus gasser.
Forskere sier ofte følgende når vi snakker om menneskers co₂ påvirkning “The Earth’s climate is a complex system, acting in ways we can’t always predict. The energy that man-made CO₂ is adding to the climate is not currently showing up as surface warming, because most of the heat is going into the oceans.”
FNs IPCC og “konsensus”
Faktisk.no bruker da IPCC og Erna Solberg som kilde når de skal vurdere fakta i denne saken. IPCC FNs klimapanel (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Ble dannet av FN-organene Verdens meteorologiorganisasjon og FNs miljøprogram i 1988. Formålet er å sammenstille eksisterende kunnskap om eventuelle endringer i jordens klima. (kilde)
Verken Erna Solberg eller IPCC er forskere, men IPCC jobber med å samle vitenskapsfolk til å skrive under på en rapport. En rapport som de ofte legger ut som “status” av klima. Mange av disse forskerne har i ettertid bedt sitt navn fjernet fra rapporten (se kilde) da de ikke kan støtte den vitenskapelige konklusjonen IPCC konstruerer. IPCC bruker også denne rapporten til å begrunne en “konsensus” og konklusjon, da gjerne i prosenttall for å skape en troverdighet. Dette baserer da mange medier seg på, og faktasjekkere. En underskrift er da ikke det samme som et vitenskapelig dokument vel å merke.
Faktiskfakta har tatt med hele rapporten til IPCC da den prøver å begrunne at co₂ fra mennesker påvirker den global oppvarming. Data viser at den industrielle revolusjon fulgte samme utvikling som den global oppvarming til en hvis grad. Dette blir da brukt som “bevis” i følge IPCC. IPCC mener at de kan kontrollere den globale temperaturen ved å redusere fosil forbrennig. Vi kunne ikke finne noen bevis som begrunner at redusert fossil-forbrenning har hatt noen som helst påvirkning på klima og den globale oppvarming.
For å teste dette har vi brukt GISS (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: NASA GISS), som lar deg hente ut store temperatur data fra verdensomspennende modeller, både land og vann.
Global oppvarming et faktum?
Så hva sier disse modellene? Jo det er ingen tvil om at vi har hatt en periode med global oppvarming, helt siden pre-istid. Vi hadden varme periode som stoppet rundt 2015-2016. Mest sannsynlig på grunn av El Niño. Grafer fra GISS beviser tydelig en økning i global oppvarming, som nå har en kurve nedover. (se bilder)
Fakta
Her er fakta rundt global oppvarming pr. dags dato. (basert på verdens datamodeller fra GISS) . Datatrend fra 1940 til 2016 beviser at vi har hatt enn global oppvarming på 0.80c i gjennomsnitt globalt. Fra 2016 til 2019 har den globale oppvarming i gjennomsnitt gått fra pluss til minus -0.09c. Det er en total bråstopp i økningen av den globale oppvarmingen. (kilde)
Sannheten er det ingen tvil om her. Vi har ingen global oppvarming pr. dags dato, enda antall biler og mennesker har økt drastisk disse årene fra da den industrielle revolusjon startet.
Forskere
Resten av denne artikkelen kommer til å handle om forskere og vitenskapsfolk, astrofysikere og meteorologer. Hva de alle sier om saken. (Se alle disse i kildene). Vi starter med et brev signert av 500 forskere som går mot IPCC rapporten. Denne konsensusen til IPCC om at alle forskere er enige, blir noe vi må faktasjekke i en annen artikkel. (Kilde)
Klimaendringer
Videre må vi ta stilling til hva som endrer klima, hva som styrer klima på jorden. Vi har funnet flere vitenskapelige kilder på dette . Det er viktig å poengtere forskjellen på hva som “driver” og hva som “påvirker”, disse to tingene er vidt forskjellig når vi snakker om global oppvarming. Konklusjonen fra vitenskapen er klar. “Det er solen som er hoveddriveren til klima.” Ikke mennesker. (fakta kilde)
Faktisk.no påstår det finnes bevis for at det har blitt gjort eksperiment på om co₂ kan påvirke varme. De referer til et eksperiment som ble gjort for 150 år siden av John Tyndall. (kilde) Vi kan derfor bekrefte at faktisk.nos påstand om at et eksperiment har blitt utført er korrekt. Vi har også funnet kilder som begrunner dette rundt co₂ og preservering av varme. Selv om dette til liten grad er realistisk i det store og hele når vi snakker om astrofysikk. Et laboratorium er ikke 100% representativt for å simulere hele jordens komplekse system og fysikk.
NASA
Videre så bruker faktisk.no en NASA-artikkel som bevis og kilde, som baserer seg på samme GISS-data.
“This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures”. (altså ikke trend)
Grafen peker helt til 2020 enda artikkelen ble laget i 2019, data fra 2016 til 2019 er simulert utvikling og ikke faktisk data. Data fra 1951-1980 stemmer med GISS sin datamodell. Vi føler det ikke er behov for å gjenta fakta som alt er nedskrevet og veldokumentert i denne saken. (relative link) se også data-modellene som beviser.
Alle kilder relative i saken både for og imot er inkludert i saken. Dette er helt vesentlig når man skal faktasjekke en slik stor sak.
Carl I. Hagen har fått mulighet til å se på saken til faktiskfakta.
Vi ser med dette saken som ferdig behandlet. Red.
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