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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/03/29/det-gronne-skiftet-er-et-sort-hull/
Det ‘grønne skiftet’ er et sort hull
- mars 29, 2022
- 22:49
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: CO2-utslipp, Klimapolitikk, Klimatismen – klimareligionen, Norske klimatiltak
Forfattet av Geir Hasnes, universitetslektor II, institutt for teknisk kybernetikk.
Kan vi måle virkningene av det ‘grønne skiftet’?
Norges CO2-utslipp
I en etter-kristen verden mangler det ikke på trosbekjennelser til odde tros-systemer, og dominerende i Norge er troen på et ‘grønt skifte’. Der skal menneskeheten slutte å produsere CO2 gjennom forbrenning av kull, olje og gass, produksjon av stål og betong, landbruk og skogbruk, og i det hele tatt bli CO2-nøytrale.
Det er noe storslagent over det naive i denne trosbekjennelsen, som norske politikere har bekjent seg til i over 30 år. Ikke at det har hjulpet synderlig, for ‘klimagassene’ strømmer fortsatt fritt ut fra vårt lille land, se figur 1.
Det gjøres oppmerksom på at dette er beregnede tall. Det finnes nemlig ingen måte å måle Norges CO2-utslipp i virkeligheten. Så hvordan skal vi kunne overbevise oss selv og folket at Norge skal kunne bli CO2-nøytralt?
I 2020 var Norges CO2-utslipp beregnet til 84% av 50 millioner tonn klimagasser, dvs. 42 mill. tonn. Usikkerheten i beregningen av CO2-utslipp er anslått til 5%, mens de andre klimagass-beregningene kan ha en usikkerhet på opp til 20%.
Dette utgjør 1,2 promille av verdens beregnede CO2-utslipp, som da var beregnet til 35 milliarder tonn.
Trosbekjennelsen: Hva CO2 forårsaker
Grønt Skifte-trosbekjennelsen de aller fleste politikere bekjenner seg til verden over sier:
- All økning av CO2 i atmosfæren er forårsaket av menneskelig aktivitet
- Økt, menneskeskapt, CO2-nivå fører til en varmere verden
- En varmere verden innebærer større klimakatastrofer
- Menneskeskapt CO2 kommer mest fra fossil energiproduksjon
- Verden skal være fri for ‘fossil’ energiproduksjon i 2050, netto null utslipp
I figur 2 vises den ‘offisielle’ forståelsen av hvordan CO2-innholdet i atmosfæren har vært stabilt i tusen år for så å øke brått i den industrialiserte tidsperioden siden en gang på 17- eller 1800-tallet.
Målingene av CO2 ved Mauna Loa
Av ymse grunner forholder alle nåtidige beretninger om CO2-utslipp seg til målingene ved Mauna Loa-observatoriet, som begynte i 1958. Disse viser en noenlunde jevn oppadstigende kurve og i løpet av de siste 60 årene har innholdet økt med om lag 100 ppm (parts per million) av atmosfæren, se figur 3.
Det som hevdes er altså at disse 100 ppm, sammen med ca 30-40 ppm tidligere økning, allerede har forårsaket en global temperaturøkning på nesten 1 grad Celsius, og at videre økning de neste 80 årene skal føre til mellom 1 og 5 grader Celsius ytterligere global temperaturøkning.
Til dette kan vi ha to spørsmål. Stemmer denne prediksjonen? Kan vi gjøre noe med dette?
(Red.anm: Vi har et tredje spørsmål, er dette en vitenskapelig prediksjon, eller er det politisk synsing, av samme kvalitet som spåkjerringa som spår i kaffegruten?)
Årlig variasjon i målingene ved Mauna Loa
Det er stor variasjon i de årlige målingene ved Mauna Loa, se figur 4
Av figur 4 ser vi følgende:
- Veksten har vært svært forskjellig fra år til år
- Den har variert mellom 0,3 og 3,0 ppm
- De siste ti årene har den variert mellom 1,9 og 3,0 ppm
- De siste tretti årene har den variert mellom 0,4 og 3,0 ppm
Vi kan altså konkludere med at det er stor usikkerhet i hvor mye veksten kommer til å bli, hvert eneste år. (Red.anm: Mauna Loa-observatoriet opplyser at de filterer vekk ca 80 % av observasjonsdataene, grunnet til tider store lekkasjer av CO2 fra den vulkanske berggrunnen rundt observatoriet.)
Årlig variasjon i beregning av menneskeskapte utslipp
Siden påstanden er at naturens CO2-utslipp var i likevekt før industrialiseringens tidsalder, og at kun mennesker bidrar til økning av CO2-utslippene ved Mauna Loa, må vi kunne undersøke dette, se figur 5.
Vi ser at de beregnede utslipp øker jevnt og trutt, fra ca 5 milliarder tonn i 1940 til ca 35 milliarder tonn i 2020. Det har vært en beregnet kort nedgang pga covid-restriksjonene i 2020 og 2021, mens prediksjonen for 2022 er 36 milliarder tonn.
Vi ser imidlertid ikke noen entydig sammenheng mellom målingene i figur 4 og beregningene i figur 5. Variasjonen i målingene f. eks. fra 1992 til 1998 er gigantisk, hvor det på seks år har skjedd en seksdobling av utlippene. I beregningene fra 1992 til 1998 ser vi kun en svak stigning.
Veksten i målingene siden 1960 er mer enn femdoblet, selv med snittverdiene som er vist, fra 0,9 til 2,5 ppm, mens det i beregningene har skjedd en firedobling.
Forskjellen i målinger og beregninger
En ppm CO2 veier 7,8 milliarder tonn eller 7,8 gigatonn. I 1960 var innholdet av CO2 i atmosfæren ifølge Mauna Loa 317 ppm i snitt. Dette veide (1,519x317x5,137×10^9)tonn = 2473,5 gigatonn. I 1961 kom det til en halv ppm mer, altså 2477,5 gigatonn. Dette året var de beregnede utslippene ca 8 gigatonn.
Det ser ut til at 4 gigatonn av de 8 menneskeskapte gigatonnene ordnet med økningen på en halv ppm. Hvor ble 4 gigatonn av i 1961? Det er intet annet svar enn at de ble absorbert av naturen.
Året etter veier CO2-andelen i atmosfæren 1 ppm mer. Dette veide da 2485 gigatonn. Dette året var de beregnede utslippene ca 8,5 gigatonn, så nå har nesten alle de beregnede utslippene bidratt til økning.
I 1999 var økningen ved Mauna Loa på 0,9 ppm, altså 7 gigatonn, men dette året var utslippene beregnet til 23 gigatonn. Hvor ble 16 gigatonn av? De kan kun ha blitt absorbert av jorda.
Veksten av CO2 i atmosfæren i 2019 var ca. 19,5 gigatonn. De menneskeskapte utslippene i 2019 ble beregnet til 35 gigatonn. Altså ble 15,5 gt absorbert av jorda.
Men i 1993 var økningen nede på under 4 gigatonn, mens de beregnede utslipp var omkring 23 gigatonn. Da skal altså etter teorien hele 19 gigatonn ha vært absorbert.
Ut fra kurvene i figur 4 og 5 kan vi se at andelen av menneskeskapt CO2 som blir ‘til overs’ varierer sterkt fra år til år. Den store variasjonen betyr at det ikke kan være menneskelig aktivitet alene som fører til CO2-vekst. Det betyr videre at naturen slett ikke har imot å absorbere halvparten eller to tredjedeler av menneskeskapte CO2-utslipp om den skulle finne det for godt.
Er de norske utslippene målbare?
De norske utslippene fant vi altså er på omkring 1,2 tusendeler av de totale utslippene, altså ca en tusendel av en slik stolpe. Det betyr at med den variasjon vi har i de eneste målingene man fester lit til, er det ikke mulig å måle noe som helst bidrag fra Norge med noen som helst sikkerhet.
Den andre veien, så er altså variasjonene så store at om hele Norge la seg på ryggen og oppga ånden og dermed la all aktivitet til null, så ville man ikke kunne fastslå noen effekt på målingene ved Mauna Loa. Til det er variasjonene i snitt omkring 0,7 ppm pr år, altså hundre ganger Norges totale utslipp.
Altså vel å merke om denne maksimaliseringen av menneskeskapt CO2s virkning holder stikk. Som vi kan se er innflytelsen av menneskeskapt CO2 sannsynligvis mye lavere, noe som man også finner i en rekke forskningsartikler. Min intensjon er å vise at om man svartmaler menneskeskapt CO2 mest mulig, har den likevel ingen målbar effekt.
Det er fullt mulig at ingen politikere på Stortinget er istand til å ta dette inn over seg. Ingen CO2-tiltak i Norge har den ringeste virkning på CO2-innholdet i atmosfæren.
(Red.anm: Begrunnelsen fra troende politikere er at alle land må ta sin del av CO2-tiltaken , uansett effekten av tiltakene i hvert land. Disse ser da suverent bort ifra at det bare er et tyvetalls vestlige land som vil prioritere slike tiltak framfor økonomisk vekst,mens de resterende øker utslippene i vesentlig støre grad enn land som Norge kutter utslipp.)
Er kutt i norske utslipp målbare på global temperatur?
Politikerne har blitt enige om et 1,5 gradersmål, hvor temperaturøkningen på global basis skal holdes lavere. De forskjellige scenariene man opererer med forteller oss at om man ikke reduserer utslippene vil temperaturen frem til 2100 stige med 1 til 5 grader Celsius på global basis.
Dette betyr at om hele Norge legger seg på rygg, oppgir ånden, og all aktivitet går ned til null, vil vi få en temperaturforskjell fra dette på en til fem åttitusendelers grad Celsius på global basis per år. Hvilket selvsagt heller ikke er målbart.
Hva koster det for ingenting?
Klimasaker har det til felles at de er religiøst basert. Når en politiker kan stå frem og hevde, uten det minste problem, at han eller hun gjør dette for å redde kloden, har fornuft og kunnskaper ingen sjanse.
CO2-prisen kombinert med kjøp av klimakvoter skal opp i 2000 kr tonnet ifølge statsbudsjettet. I 2021 var prisen i snitt omkring 1000 kr. Dette er altså en avlatshandel for å slippe å stanse pågående utslipp.
Dette gjelder også CO2-ekvivalenter fra andre gasser, og totale CO2-ekvivalenter i utslipp i Norge er 50 millioner tonn, noe som totalt gir 100 milliarder / år i CO2-avgifter.
Det skal altså koste Norge 100 milliarder i året å unngå en temperaturøkning på én til fem åttitusendels grad Celsius – som ikke er målbar.
Det verste er at ulike tiltakene koster mer enn å betale CO2-kvoteprisene. CO2-fangst på Klemetsrud sies å fange 400 000 tonn CO2 pr år, og dette skulle koste 7 milliarder over en femårsperiode. Selvsagt sprekker dette som alle andre prosjekter som staten setter i gang, men vi kan gjøre det enkelt og bruke disse tallene.
Da får vi en CO2-pris på 3500 kroner tonnet, altså godt over det dobbelte av bare å betale kvoteavgiftene og regne dette som «collateral damage» for å bo i verdens mest naive land.
Det ‘grønne skiftet’ er et sort hull
Selv om man forutsetter maksimal dominans av menneskeskapt CO2 er ikke norske utslipp målbare hverken på CO2-innholdet i atmosfæren eller på den globale temperaturen.
Ingen av landene der politikerne har omfavnet den grønne religionen har til hensikt å legge seg og sine nasjoner på ryggen, og derfor vil eventuelle CO2-kutt aldri bli maksimalt av hva man kan oppnå ved å vende tilbake til middelalderen.
De fleste landene i verden har ikke et BNP pr innbygger som vil tåle en slik skattlegging. De fleste landene i verden vil faktisk ønske å ta del i fremskrittet ved å forbrenne kull og olje.
Alle midlene som brukes på det ‘grønne skiftet’ går inn i et sort hull. Ingen tiltak er målbare eller vil noensinne bli det.
Det ‘grønne skiftet’ vil imidlertid ikke forsvinne, fordi det er en akseptert mekanisme for å overføre midler fra privatpersoner og fra staten til investorer og bedrifter. Disse midlene kunne vært brukt til å gjøre samfunnet bedre for oss alle, men slik de brukes på naturødeleggelser og andre grønne visjoner forarmer de oss som enkeltpersoner og samfunnet som helhet.
Det eneste som er spennende er å se hvor langt det kan gå før ødeleggelsene har blitt plagsomme. Norge har blitt et lydrike under EU og må lide under EUs visjoner om et grønt skifte fritt for kull og olje. Gass har kommet inn i varmen igjen nå som el-nettet truer med å kollapse. De første signaler om at kullkraftverk skal fyres opp igjen, og at flere kjernekraftverk settes i gang, har ankommet i det siste.
Men det er for sent. Norge er fortapt. Det er ingenting som kan redde oss fra å bli oppslukt av det sorte grøntskifte-hullet, for det gror sterkere og sterkere desto mer det suger til seg. Flere og flere blir fattige, flere og flere bedrifter legges ned, all aktivitet blir uutholdelig dyrt og matmangelen vil krone det hele, når det blir slutt på CO2-basert kunstgjødsel og annen CO2-basert matproduksjon.
Det grønne skiftet har ingen målbare resultater på CO2 og temperatur, og eksisterer kun som religion i en etterkristen verden, og som markedsmekanisme for dem som vil utnytte systemet.
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Comecei Dragon Hatch 2 com R$30, saí com R$500.
A variância do Ganesha Gold bateu diferente hoje.
Galera, Fortune Dragon tá imperdível depois do almoço. Já fiz minha forra diária.
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