by
Ekspertisens forklaringsproblem:
Når klimaskremslene
ikke slår til
Det har ikke manglet på varsler om forestående katastrofer grunnet klimautviklingen. Men alt det fæle som skulle skje, det har jo ikke inntruffet. Det var underlig. Dette var jo 99 % sikkert, ikke sant?
Jo da, vi har alle hørt det. Gang på gang. Havet skulle stige, byer skulle ligge under vann. Øystater i Stillehavet skulle drukne. Polene skulle bli isfrie. Snøen og skiføret skulle snart bli en saga blott. Isbjørnene, stakkar, de ville bli utryddet. Vi ville få mer og mer ekstremvær. Det skulle komme millioner av «klimaflyktninger». Alt av isbreer ville forsvinne sporløst. De dystre spådommene har stått i kø siden 1990-tallet. Og mye av dette skulle jo nå, i 2019, for lengst være inntruffet. Men slik har det ikke gått. Faktisk har så å si ingen av de nevnte katastrofer vært i nærheten av å inntreffe.
Men alle vet jo ..?
Hm … Kan virkelig alle disse høyt lovpriste ekspertene ha tatt feil? Det er jo ifølge mediene noe sånt som 99 % sikkert at de har rett? De som våger å stille spørsmål ved skråsikre påstander (også kalt vitenskap) om kommende undergang, blir beskrevet som fornektere og tullebukker, og satt i bås med dem som mener jorda er flat. «Alle», til og med barna, vet jo at det som kommer fra disse klimaekspertene, er riktig. Det MÅ være riktig. Noe annet er utenkelig.
Likevel – de har ikke hatt rett i noe som helst. De har vært helt på jordet, for å si det på godt norsk. Merkelig. Snakker vi om en ikke nærmere bestemt forsinkelse? Er undergangen bare litt utsatt?
Fraværet av kritisk presse
Én ting er fraværet av disse bebudede hendelsene. Noe annet er fraværet av en presse som setter søkelys på det hele. Hvor er de kritiske spørsmålene til klimaeksperter som tar feil gang på gang? Hvilke andre yrkesgrupper enn klima-besserwisserne og deres haleheng av plaprende klakører og megafoner ville sluppet unna med slike fundamentale feil?
Vi er rett og slett vitne til en presse som har opphørt å være presse. De har kastet all profesjonalitet og alle sine faglige ambisjoner over bord. Tilbake står en stusslig yrkesgruppe og fungerer som mikrofonstativer for såkalte eksperter som stadig lanserer nye absurde påstander og spådommer.
Det åpenbare spørsmålet som burde stilles av en skikkelig journalist, er selvsagt: «Hvorfor skal vi tro på dere nå, når dere har tatt feil i alt dere har spådd hittil?»
Men det spørsmålet stilles ikke. I stedet velger man å skrive hånlige kronikker og artikler om dem som våger å opponere mot «ekspertisen». Man tør selv ikke vise snev av kritisk sans. Feigheten er til å ta og føle på.
USA: Fjernet skilt om at breene skulle bli borte innen 2020
Når skremslene ikke realiseres, oppstår iblant nesten komiske situasjoner. I USA var myndighetsorganet The National Park Service «sikre» på en nært forestående slutt på alt som heter isbreer. Man hadde derfor satt opp skilt om at breene ville være borte innen 2020. Disse skiltene kom på plass under Obama-administrasjonen, da «klima-angsten» som kjent fikk ubegrenset spillerom.
Ifølge det konservative nettstedet Flag and Cross har ledelsen ved Glacier National Park nå nylig fjernet disse skiltene. Man har rett og slett innsett at breene langt fra vil være borte om noen måneder, og at påstandene var rent tøv. Fjerningen av skiltene har skjedd i all stillhet. Man ville unngå en småpinlig innrømmelse.
Men man har ikke våget å hoppe helt av klima-vogna, og har i stedet satt opp plakater med et nytt, «revidert» budskap:
“When they completely disappear, however, will depend on how and when we act.”
Ok. Så breene skal fortsatt forsvinne, men det er ikke lenger så sikkert når det vil skje.
Ny disiplin innen klimavitenskapen: Fiffige bortforklaringer
Nettopp det å finne «gode forklaringer» på ikke inntrufne kriser, og samtidig lansere nye, reviderte spådommer og teorier, kommer trolig til å bli et vekstområde innen klimavitenskapen. Denne saken fra USA er bare ett eksempel.
Vi får ventelig mange slike saker også her hjemme etter hvert som de såkalte klimamodellene havarerer i møtet med virkeligheten i naturen. For det vi gang på gang ser, er nettopp at modeller er så sin sak, realiteten blir noe helt annet. Da er det tid for «sminket vitenskap».
Stadig flere klimaforskere og «eksperter» vil antagelig havne i det som kalles «dommedagsprofetens paradoks». Det innebærer at man utrolig nok opplever en form for skuffelse og sinne ved at en spådd krise ikke inntreffer. Krisen hadde faktisk vært å foretrekke fremfor eget tap av ansikt og anseelse.
Dette har ved en del anledninger vært et fenomen blant annet for Jehovas Vitner, når de har spådd jordas undergang på visse tidspunkter, og så sett at verden går videre. – Å nei, vi lever fortsatt!
Vi kan nok glede oss til mye god kreativitet fra «klimaekspertisen» fremover, og ikke minst mange finurlige vinklinger fra velvillige og ukritiske hjelpere i pressekorpset.
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