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Ekstremvær og vitenskap-2
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk
- Stikkord: Ekstremvær, tørke
Klimanytt nr. 327. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Dette er del 2 med forklaringen på årets hetebølge. Del 1 var Klimanytt 326. Grundige vitenskapelige studier forklarer årets europeiske tørke som et naturlig fenomen. Variasjoner i transport av energi fra ekvator mot polene gir mye større påvirkning enn IPCCs CO2-hypotese, men inngår ikke i deres modeller.
Medienes ‘megaomtale’ av sommerens kraftige europeiske tørke er omtalt i KN 326. Her utdypes en av de dominerende mekanismer for naturlige klimavariasjoner. Meteorologisk institutts tidligere fagsjef, Asbjørn Moene, bygget sine klimaforedrag på naturens transportmekanismer av energi mellom ekvator og polområder (bl.a. NAO/AO, AMO, SAM).
I 1928 beskrev G. T. Walker naturlige svingninger i vindretningen i Atlanterhavet. Den Nord-Atlantiske Oscillasjon (NAO, KN 139) gir kjente værtyper i svære landområder på begge sider og langt inn i Russland. Hovedmekanismen er sterke jetstrømmer rundt 10 km oppe i atmosfæren. De beveger seg periodisk i en stram struktur langs breddegradene som vist i venstre figur på den nordlige halvkule (NH) og tilsvarende på sørlige halvkule (SH). Ved høytrykk på sørsiden holdes kalde og varme luftmasser på plass i sine respektive områder. I andre perioder slakker jetstrømmen av og gir store buktninger med høyere trykk på den arktiske siden. Kaldere luft trenger langt sørover og varmluft nordover i andre buktninger som vist i høyre figur.
NAO har en 60-70-års syklus. Golfstrømmen har liknende syklus, men er anslagsvis 15 år ‘forskjøvet’. Oppvarmingen 1850-80, 1910-40 og 1975-2005 er varme deler av syklusene. Nedbør som følge av endret vindmønster er omtalt i KN 188.
Varmetransport fra ekvator til pol
Solens energibidrag avtar mot polene og påvirker sesongtemperaturene i de ulike årstider med flere grader C slik figuren viser mottatt energi til jordens overflate langs breddegrader (blå kurve) og langbølget utstråling fra kloden (rød), begge i W/m2 langs vertikal akse. I områdene fra 40 grader mot polene er temperaturen og tilhørende utstråling større enn solvarmen (grønt) fordi energi transporteres fra ekvator (gult). Forskjellen i energimengden er hele 110 W/m2 ved polene. Energien transporteres med havstrømmer og vinder og påvirkes av endringer i solinnstråling, solspekteret (UV-andel), magnetfelt, kosmisk stråling, skydannelse, jordrotasjon etc. Til sammenligning er IPCC-hypotesens beregnede effekt av økt CO2 snaut 2 W/m2, kun 1-2 % som er langt mindre enn usikkerheten i beregningene.
I perioder når jetstrømmen bukter seg, vil kald og varm luft føres henholdsvis sørover og nordover i ulike soner i langt større grad enn ved stram jetstrøm. Dette kan gi vel så stor mulighet for ekstreme perioder (kulde, varme, nedbør) som når jetstrømmen er markant og holder ‘på plass’ arktisk luft i sitt område så vel som varmluft ved lavere breddegrader.
FNs FAO viktige studium
Disse forhold ble også påpekt i rapporten fra FAO i 2001 (KN 180). Figurene (vist i lenken til KN180, og klikk på figuren for forstørring) viser i perioden 1850-2000 en meget god sammenheng mellom global middeltemperatur (mørk bred linje dT) og jordrotasjon (invertert, sirkler, tynn linje) øverst og fordeling av vinder langs breddegrader eller lengdegrader i en 60-70-års syklus på det Eur-asiatiske kontinent. Dominerende vinder langs breddegradene henger sammen med lav jordrotasjon og høyere globale temperaturer, mens dominerende meridonale vinder henger sammen med høy jordrotasjon og lavere global temperatur. Disse endringene inntrer ca. 6 år etter at jordrotasjonen endrer seg.
Variasjonene leder til en rekke omfattende, kjente værfenomener i ulike regioner og legges til grunn for værmeldinger og langtidsvarsel. NAO har en vel 60-års syklus med vel 30 år varmere og vel 30 år kaldere perioder. Golfstrømmen har liknende sykluser påvist langt tilbake 8000 år i Arktis (Fauerskov Nielsen et al 2012), men er anslagsvis 15 år ‘forskjøvet’ i forhold til NAOs ca 60-års syklus. Oppvarmingsperiodene 1850-80, 1910-40 og 1975-2005 henger sammen med stramme jetstrømmer. Liknende fenomen finnes også i Stillehavet (PDO), Antarktis osv.
Koblingen til jetstrømmene er tydelig, og hetebølger med varmluft sørfra kan derfor i prinsippet være vel så hyppig i globalt kjøligere perioder som i de varme. Observasjoner gir svaret.
Vitenskap og tørken i Vest-Europa
Et omfattende studium basert på 199 målestasjoner av nedbør i Vest-Euoropa 1851- 2018 viser ingen langtidstendens. Endringer i kortere perioder forekommer, men de senere tiår er overgått av tidligere perioder slik det fremgår av figuren (SPI = Standard Precipitation Index over 3 mnd (øverst) og 12 mnd (nederst) angitt i % av studert område (kraftig = mørk, moderat = rød og mild = gul). Målingene ble avsluttet i 2018, men årets kraftige tørkeperiode vil ikke kunne endre det statistiske helhetsbilde.
Forfatterne påpeker betydning av lange tidsserier for riktige konklusjoner.
Dette står i motsetning til Cicero-forsker Bjørn H. Samset som hevdet at årets tørke viste at vi måtte sette i gang med CO2-tiltak raskt. I de første 100 år viser studien ingen tendens og domineres av naturlige variasjoner og påvirkes ikke etter 1950 da menneskeskapte CO2-utslipp gradvis begynte å øke nevneverdig. Det skulle tilsi at i dette området er mekanismene for nedbør/tørke ikke menneskeskapte, men domineres av naturlige prosesser.
Tørke domineres av tre faktorer: nedbør, avrenning (hydrologi) og jordfuktighet. De to siste påvirkes i variabel grad av andre faktorer inklusive menneskelig aktivitet og tiltak.
Roger Pielke jr. er en av de internasjonalt ledende eksperter på ekstremeffekter, ekspertkommentator for IPCC-rapporter og vitne ved høringer i US-Congress. Han har startet en serie «Hva mediene ikke forteller deg» der han korrigerer feilaktige mediepåstander om ekstremeeffekter som ikke bygger på offisielle data. Han kommenterer studien også i lys av IPCCs siste rapport 2021 som konkluderer med: «In areas of Western and Central Europe and Northern Europe, there is no evidence of changes in the severity of hydrological droughts (avrenning) since 1950». En annen studie av perioden 1969-2020 viser i sin helhet at det har vært liten endring i tørke-karakteristika i Europa i årene 1969-2018.
Konklusjon
«In Western and Central Europe – basically Atlantic France all the way to Moscow, north of the Mediterranean region and south of the North Sea region – the IPCC and the underlying peer reviewed research on which it assesses has concluded that drought has not increased». Alarmistene og medier er tatt med ‘buksene nede’. Ekstremvær domineres fremdeles av naturlige variasjoner.
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Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
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I also believe that mesothelioma cancer is a rare form of cancer that is usually found in individuals previously exposed to asbestos. Cancerous tissue form within the mesothelium, which is a shielding lining which covers the majority of the body’s bodily organs. These cells normally form while in the lining in the lungs, stomach, or the sac that really encircles one’s heart. Thanks for revealing your ideas.
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It’s my belief that mesothelioma will be the most dangerous cancer. It has unusual qualities. The more I really look at it a lot more I am confident it does not conduct itself like a real solid tissues cancer. In the event that mesothelioma is really a rogue virus-like infection, so there is the possibility of developing a vaccine and offering vaccination for asbestos open people who are really at high risk involving developing long run asbestos linked malignancies. Thanks for discussing your ideas on this important health issue.
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I think one of your adverts triggered my web browser to resize, you might want to put that on your blacklist.
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I have observed that of all different types of insurance, medical care insurance is the most questionable because of the struggle between the insurance policy company’s necessity to remain making money and the client’s need to have insurance cover. Insurance companies’ earnings on health plans are certainly low, as a result some providers struggle to generate income. Thanks for the tips you discuss through this site.
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A different issue is that video gaming has become one of the all-time most important forms of excitement for people spanning various ages. Kids participate in video games, and adults do, too. The particular XBox 360 is one of the favorite games systems for individuals that love to have a lot of activities available to them, and also who like to play live with other people all over the world. Many thanks for sharing your notions.
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When I originally commented I clicked the -Notify me when new feedback are added- checkbox and now every time a remark is added I get 4 emails with the identical comment. Is there any means you may remove me from that service? Thanks!
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Have you ever considered publishing an ebook or guest authoring on other sites? I have a blog centered on the same topics you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my audience would value your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to send me an email.
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Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell
and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed.
There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She
never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off
topic but I had to tell someone!
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