by https://klimarealistene.com/global-temperatur-april-2023/
Hentet! —
Global temperatur april 2023
Temperaturdata for april fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur i perioden 1990-2020 (TLT) korrigerer noe ned i april til 0,18 o C, fra 0,20 o C i mars, tidlig i det syvende året med global nedkjøling.
UAH har temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», de bruker data fra NASAs satelitter og publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, det dekker 99 % av klodens overflate og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. April 2023 korrigerer noe opp til 0,18 o C, fra forrige måneds 0,20 o.
- Nordlige halvkule ned til 0,11 o C, fra 0,23 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule opp til 0,25 o C, fra 0,16 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene opp til -0,03 o C, fra -0,14 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig opp til -0,38 o C, fra -1,44 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia ned til 0,21 o C, fra 0,40 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis opp til 0,53 o C, fra 0,17 o C forrige mnd.
- Antarktis ? o C, fra 0,72 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære som er opp til 10 km høyde (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære. Nytt i UAH-lenken ovenfor er at det er oppgitt data for hav- og landtemperatur i hver region. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For mer informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña) som kan gi klare utslag på den enkelte måned, se Klimanytt120.
Temperaturtrend – atmosfære og hav
Dr. Spencer bruker oppvarmingstrenden i UAH-observasjonene i troposfæren siden januar 1979 (532 måneder), uten hensyn til trendskiftet i 1998, og får 0,13o C pr tiår (0,11o C over hav og 0,18o C over land).
Klimapanelets hovedrapport fra 2013/14 oppgir trenden i observasjonene etter før og etter trendskiftet i 1998, basert på bakkemålt temperatur (WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010): «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012».
Tysklands kanskje mest framtredende klimaforsker Hans von Storch, uttalte i et intervju med Der Spiegel i 2013 om temperaturtrenden: «In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero».
Havtemperaturen trekkes sjelden fram i media, og da gjerne med uvitenskapelig skjøting av ulike datasett i samme figur, og oppvarmingen oppgitt i Joule, så man får et stort tall å skremme folk flest med. Det finnes bare pålielige havdata fra 2004, fra ARGO-bøyene som dekker havet globalt, med unntak for områder dekket av is. Figuren fra prof. Humlums Climate4you, viser at havtemperatuen (løpende 13 måneders gjennomsnitt og 0-1900 meters dybde) siden januar 2004 bare har økt med 0,04 grader C.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin nyeste ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren under, i en fersk analyse (30. april). Det er nøytral status nå (+0,4 C), med 62 % sjanse for en El Niño i perioden mai til juli.
El Niño og ekstremvær
Noen spør om et er mer ekstremvær når det er El Niño forhold, og klimaskremmerne er ofte ute i media med slike påstander, men alltid uten noen dokumentasjon. Dr. Roger Pielke har undersøkt de de tre ENSO-fasene El Niño, La Niña og nøytral, for å finne tap fra ekstremvær, målt både i dødsfall og i dollar.
Det er godt kjent at nedbørsmønsteret endrer seg drastisk mellom El Niño og La Niña, NOAA har en god oversikt her. VI gjengir to figurer fra Pielkes blogg The Honest Broker, på Substack, hvor man også kan finne en mer utfyllende kommentar til figurene:
Tall fra Munich Re.
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