by Hentet: https://klimarealistene.com/global-temperatur-august-2023/
Global temperatur august 2023
Temperaturdata for august fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur i perioden 1991-2020 (TLT) er litt opp fra juli, med 0,69 o C, ift 0,64 o C i juli, i det syvende året med global nedkjøling. En moderat El Niño har etablert seg og denne vil ifølge modellene holde seg gjennom kommende vinter.
UAH har temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», de bruker data fra NASAs satelitter og publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, det dekker 99 % av klodens overflate og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. August 2023 er litt opp til 0,69 o C, fra 0,64 o C i juli.
- Nordlige halvkule opp til 0,88 o C, fra 0,73 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule ned til 0,51 o C, fra 0,56 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene nær uendret med 0,86 o C, fra 0,87 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 klart opp til 0,94 o C, fra -0,53 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia ned til 1,25 o C, fra 1,41 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis klart opp til 1,54 o C, fra 0,91 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære som er opp til 10 km høyde (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære. Nytt i UAH-lenken ovenfor er at det er oppgitt data for hav- og landtemperatur i hver region. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For mer informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña) som kan gi klare utslag på den enkelte måned, se Klimanytt120.
Forklaringen på økningen i juli og august kan inkludere Hunga Tonga-utbruddet som tilførte stratosfæren 10-15 % mer vanndamp, eller andre forhold. Virkeligheten er betydelig mer kompleks, ifølge klimaforsker og oseanograf Judith Curry, som forklarer her. Hennes konklusjon, i kortfattet oversettelse:
Primær årsak til høy global temperatur i 2023 er en trend fra 2015 hvor det viktigste er økt absorpsjon av solenergi i hav og atmosfære fordi det har vært mindre skydekke som igjen gir lavere refleksjon av solenergi ut fra atmosfæren i denne perioden. Fra 2015 har vi også hatt kraftige El Niño/La Niña som påvirker. Den potensielle drivhuseffekten fra mer CO2 forsvinner helt i disse dominerende forholdene.
Temperaturtrender – atmosfære og hav
- Klimapanelets trend (fra 1990-rapporten, dets scenario A, uten klimatiltak) varslet om 0.3o C/tiår global oppvarming fra 1990-2090.
- Klimapanelets trend nå (fra CMIP6-modellene i den nye 6.hovedrapport) varsler om global oppvarming på 0,386 o C/tiår.
- Observert oppvarming fra 1990 er 0,137o C/tiår.
- UAHs temperaturtrend i troposfæren fra 1979 (534 mnd) er 0,14o C pr tiår, fordelt på 0,12o C over hav og 0,19o C over land.
- Klimapanelets trend er 0.26°C pr tiår for 1984–1998 og 0.04°C pr tiår for varmepausen 1998–2012».
- Havenes temperaturtrend (ARGO-data) er 0,02°C pr tiår for perioden 2004-2023.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin nyeste ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren ovenfor, i en fersk analyse (28. august). Oceanic Nino Index vist vertikalt i Kelvin til venstre i figuren. Vi har en moderat El Niño nå, og for høst og vinter er det 95 % sjanse for en moderat til sterk El Niño (ONI-verdi mellom 1 og 2 grader Kelvin) gjennom kommende vinter.
Våt august i Norge
Værstat har oppsummert august måned for Norge, og påpeker at det ble en våt måned for Sør-Norge. Mens «bønder bekymret for avlingene og meteorologer som fryktet en ny 2018-sommer så snudde været.» Sommeren ble verken varmere eller villere, og august ble bare våtere enn juli, og det til tross for at Ciceros klimapredikant i mai varslet forhold «verre enn Dommedag.» Samset viste igjen at han ikke makter å sannspå, da de våtere dalstrøkene østafjells ikke engang fikk en liten Syndflod som en forsmak på hans varslede Dommedag.
Nytt fra Met.Institutt i august var at klimamodellør/forsker og skittkaster Hans Olav Hygen gikk ut i media med påstanden om at nedbøren på Østlandet «definitivt var påvirket av klimaendringene». Værstat stilte spørsmål og oppfølgende spørsmål Hygen delvis ikke ville svare på, og mest pinlig for Met. Instiutt var det at statistikken Hygen støttet seg på, faktisk viste en synkende nedbørstrend siden 1980 !
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