by
https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/01/03/global-temperatur-desember-2021/
Global temperatur desember 2021
- januar 3, 2022
- 14:34
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk, Roy Spencer, Temperatur
Temperaturdata for desember fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for desember korrigerer litt opp med 0,21 o C fra forrige måned, i det femte året med global nedkjøling. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming tydeliggjøres ved at 2021 bare ble det åttende varmeste året i UAH-dataene. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Desember 2021 korrigerer med (0,21 o C) noe opp fra forrige måneds (0,08 o C), men er fortsatt lavere enn (0,37 o C) fra oktober og (0,25 o C) fra september.
- Nordlige halvkule litt opp til 0,27 o C, fra 0,11 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule litt opp til 0,15 o C, fra 0,06 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene litt ned til 0,03 o C, fra 0,14 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig opp til 1,63 o C, fra 0,50 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis klart opp til 0,01 o C, fra -0,42 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia litt opp til -0,06 o C, fra -0,29 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.
Temperaturtrender
Trend i global temperatur kan beregnes på flere måter, avhengig av hvor langt tilbake i tid aktørens horisont strekker seg. Her er tre eksempler på trender i temperatur:
Dr. Spencer bruker naturligvis oppvarmingstrenden i UAH-observasjonene i troposfæren siden januar 1979, uten hensyn til trendskiftet i 1998, og får 0,14o C pr tiår (0,12o C over hav og 0,18o C over land).
Om året 2021 skriver Dr. Spencer: «The annual average anomaly for 2021 was +0.134 deg. C above the 30-year mean (1991-2020), which places it as the 8th warmest year in the 43 year satellite record, behind 2016, 2020, 1998, 2019, 2017,2010, and 2015.»
FNs Mellomstatlige Klimapanel oppgir i hovedrapporten fra 2013/14 trenden i observasjonene, etter det observerte trendskiftet, basert på bakkemålt (HadCRUT) temperatur (WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010): «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012».
Klimapanelet som ikke kan tenke seg at det ikke finnes et menneskeskapt klimaproblem, er naturligvis ikke interessert i alle dataene, og de vil slett ikke snakke om perioden 1941–1975 (The Grand Hiatus), hvor det ble kaldere til tross for økte utslipp av CO2 fra fossile brensler.
Med alle dataene kan vi se temperaturtrenden i figuren under. Siden bruken av globale gjennomsnitt kan forvirre mer enn opplyse, og siden klimavariasjoner er basert på en sum av regionale fenomener, så bruker vi klodens lengste temperaturserie CET, fra det sentrale England.
Det er i IPCC-leiren etablert at man må bruke tideler eller hundredeler av grader for å synliggjøre klimaproblemet, dvs man manipulerer ved å blåse opp den vertikale skalaen i figurene. Vi velger å bruke den mer objektive skalaen hele grader, slik det gjøres på klassiske kvikksølvbaserte termometre. Had-temperaturer kommer fra Hadley Centre, et samarbeidsprosjekt mellom UK Met Office og CRU ved East Anglia universitetet.
Er det mulig å se et klimaproblem her som man må bruke enorme pengebeløp på å bekjempe ???
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin nyeste ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren under en fersk analyse (27. des.) en fortsatt La Niña sesong gjennom vinteren og våren på nordlige halvkule, med en retur til nøytrale forhold i perioden april til juni 2022.
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