by Hentet: https://klimarealistene.com/global-temperatur-desember-2023/
Global temperatur desember 2023
Temperaturdata for desember fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur i perioden 1991-2020 (TLT) er noe ned i desember, med 0,83 o C, ift 0,91 o C i måneden før. Vi har ifølge statistikerne en temperaturtrend uten målbar mennesklig påvirkning. Den moderate El Niño vil ifølge modellene holde seg gjennom vinteren.
UAH har temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», de bruker data fra NASAs satelitter og publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, det dekker 99 % av klodens overflate og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Desember 2023 er noe ned, til 0,83 o C, fra 0,91 o C måneden før.
- Nordlige halvkule noe ned, til 0,93 o C, fra 1,01 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule noe ned, til 0,73 o C, fra 0,82 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene nær uendret, med 1,08 o C, fra 1,03 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 klart opp til 1,26 o C, fra 0,65 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis kraftig ned, til 0,26 o C, fra 1,16 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia klart opp til 0,85 o C, fra 0,42 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære som er opp til 10 km høyde (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære, med data for både hav- og landtemperatur i hver region. UAH har flere lekre figurer her. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For mer informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña) som kan gi klare utslag på den enkelte måned, se Klimanytt120.
Året 2023 – varmest
Hvordan havner så året 2023 i forhold til de tidligere år hvor vi har sammenlignbare data? Roy Spencer viser denne figuren:
Temperaturtrender – atmosfære og hav
Modellene det er vist til i de tre øverste kulepunktene forutsetter alle at all økning i temperatur skyldes menneskets utslipp. Er dette feil, så vil tallene i virkeligheten bli mye lavere.
- Klimapanelets trend (fra 1990-rapporten, dets scenario A, uten klimatiltak) varslet en 0.3o C/tiår global oppvarming fra 1990-2090.
- Klimapanelets trend nå (fra CMIP6-modellene i 6. hovedrapport) varsler en global oppvarming på 0,386 o C/tiår.
- UAH-modellen (se info om den her) viser en temp-økning på 1,9° Celsius som følge av en dobling av atmosfærisk CO2 (ECS), der IPC-modellene viser fra 1.8 to 5.6° C ved samme CO2-dobling.
- UAHs temperaturtrend i troposfæren, observert fra 1979 (537 mnd) er 0,14o C pr tiår, fordelt på 0,12o C over hav og 0,19o C over land.
- Klimapanelets trend er 0.26°C pr tiår for 1984–1998 og 0.04°C pr tiår for varmepausen 1998–2012».
- Havenes temperaturtrend (ARGO-data, figur under) er 0,02°C pr tiår for perioden 2004-2023.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin nyeste ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren ovenfor, i en fersk analyse (2. januar). Oceanic Nino Index vist vertikalt i Kelvin til venstre i figuren. Vi skal ha nådd toppen i pågående El Niño nå, og kommende vår (MAM) blir det retur til en modellgarantert nøytral sommer. Og neste vinter? Nok en figur fra samme NOAA rapport viser økende mulighet for en ny La Niña vinter (blå stolper i figuren, Juli til sept. 44 % La Niña sannsynlighet).
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