Global temperatur juli 2021
Vi har temperaturdata for juli fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for juli er med 0,20 o C noe opp fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Juli 2021 er med (0,20 o C) noe opp fra forrige måneds (-0,01 o C).
- Nordlige halvkule nær uendret på 0,33 o C, fra 0,31 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule klart opp til 0,07 o C, fra -0,32 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene klart opp til 0,13 o C, fra -0,14 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig ned til 0,58 o C, fra 1,44 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis litt ned til 0,43 o C, fra -0,63 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia kraftig opp til 0,80 o C, fra -0,76 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.
NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (2. aug.) nøytral status nå, og en La Niña sesong fra høsten og gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. La Niña-sesongen vi først meldte om i april, er i ferd med å bli mer synlig i modellene.
Meteorologene i Australia melder nøytrale forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet (sydlige halvkule). De viser i en analyse 20. juli til at modellene viser nedkjøling av havtemperatur,og 3 av 7 modeller viser La Niña-forhold fra høsten av.For det meste av Australia medfører dette noe mer nedbør.
Ødeleggende kulde i Brasil
Brasil har vært rammet av uvanlig kulde og ødeleggende frost både sent i juni og det meste av juli. En kraftig storm de siste juli-dagene førte til at over 30 byer i Rio Grande do Sul opplevde snøstorm, samt isregn og sterke vindkast. Dette er byer hvor befolkningen i vår tid ikke har opplevd snø.
Analytikere påpeker at skaden på maisavlingene var betydelig før den siste stormen kom, nå blir det konsekvenser for eksporten av både kaffe og sukkerroer. Minas Gerais som er kjent for sine betydelige kaffeavlinger har ifølge Reuters opplevd store frostskader ved kaffeplantasjene. Det kan ta 2 eller 3 år før avlingene er tilbake på normalt nivå.
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