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Global temperatur juni 2020
Vi har temperaturdata for juni fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for juni er med +0,43 o C noe ned fra mai. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer hvordan man beregner klimaet. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1981-2010. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Juni 2020 er med (+0,43 o C) noe ned fra mai (+0,54 o C) etter en betydelig nedgang siden tidlig i 2016.
Tilsvarende globale data for mai fra midten av troposfæren er 0,35 o C, for tropopausen 0,17 o C og for lavere stratosfære -0,44 o C.
- Nordlige halvkule noe ned til 0,45 o C nå, fra 0,60 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule noe ned til 0,41 o C, fra 0,49 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene noe ned til 0,46 o C nå, fra 0,66 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 noe opp til 0,38 o C nå, fra 0,17 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis klart ned, med 0,80 o C nå, fra 1,15 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia kraftig opp til 1,20 o C nå, fra -0,15 o C forrige mnd
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Men ENSO påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.
NOAA i USA modellerer nøytrale forhold i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (29 juni) oppgis det 60 % sjanse for sommeren på nordlige halvkule. For høsten og kommende vinter varsles omtrent like sjanser (40-50 %) for enten La Niña eller nøytrale forhold. Som man ser av figuren til venstre, hvor den tykke sorte linjen er gjennomsnittet av de ulike modellene, er havtemperaturen sunket under normalen, og dette gjelder ikke bare overflaten, men for de øverste 300 metrene av havet.
Meteorologene i Australia har skiftet til «La Niña watch», fordi temperaturene har fortsatt å synke de seneste ukene. De viser i en analyse 23. juni til at et flertall av deres modeller viser minst 50 % sjanse for at en La Niña vil manifestere seg senest til høsten (våren i Australia).
Følg med på Værstat.no
Dette nye nettstedet har hatt flere interessante oppslag den siste måneden. Vi merker oss spesielt at de igår satte NRK på plass etter nok et useriøst oppslag, nå om juniværet i Oslo. Trenden på NRK er at nyheter om været er blitt mer eller mindre manipulerende. De vrir og vrenger, manipulerer og utelater, i tekstene de får fra Meteorologisk Institutt.
Klimamodellør Hygen siteres slik om juniværet: «Dette er sjeldan kost. Det er ikkje ofte at så mange målestasjonar set rekordar for høgaste temperatur i same månad. Det viser kor ekstremt varmt det var i juni«.
Men NRK har valgt seg ut 36 varmerekorder, muligens i samrøre med Hygen som ikke er blant de som ignorerer en klimakrise bare fordi den ikke kan observeres noe sted. Men hele 20 av disse rekordene er fra målestasjoner etablert i eller etter år 2000, slik at man ikke har noen seriøs statistikk over tid for de nye stasjonene. Nye stasjoner er gode å ha når de gamle ikke samarbeider (se Oslo og Bergen i neste avsnitt), for de nye kan vise rekord nesten hver dag i en enkelt måned.
De samlede dataene for juni for Oslo viser 18,8 grader i gjennomsnitt, rett bak juni 1988 (18,9 grader) og mer interessant, en nedkjøling på nesten en grad fra juni 1889 (19,6 grader). Bergen hadde 17 grader i gjennomsnitt i juni, godt bak rekorden fra klimaforbedringen i 1930-årene (1933 med 18 grader)
Ny vri på klimaskremmingen i NRK
Tilbake til NRK, hvor Vestlandskontoret i dag viser en betydelig innovasjon i klimaskremmingen, de melder om sludd og snøbyer over 1000 meter i Sør-Norge, med glatte veier på fjellovergangene. Fra og med torsdag kveld og et uspesifisert antall dager fremover.
Typisk norsk sommer altså, men for noen er snø i fjellet i juli et tegn på at du kjører for mye bil og spiser for mye kjøtt. Eneste løsning er å sette sluttdato for oljeindustrien, sier en av de galeste grønne i enda et ensidig NRK-oppslag, hvor Hr. Fisher skriver som sentralstyremedlem i Rødt, mens han uten å blunke er samtidig ansatt i naturvernforbundet.
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