by Fra:
https://klimarealistene.com/global-temperatur-juni-2023/
Global temperatur juni 2023
Temperaturdata for juni fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur i perioden 1990-2020 (TLT) er nær uforandret i juni, 0,38 o C, fra 0,37 o C i mai, tidlig i det syvende året med global nedkjøling. En moderat El Niño etablerte seg tydelig i løpet av juni måned, og denne vil ifølge modellene holde seg gjennom kommende vinter.
UAH har temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», de bruker data fra NASAs satelitter og publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, det dekker 99 % av klodens overflate og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Juni 2023 er nær uforendret med 0,38 o C.
- Nordlige halvkule opp til 0,47 o C, fra 0,30 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule ned til 0,29 o C, fra 0,44 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene opp til 0,55 o C, fra 0,39 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig ned til -0,36 o C, fra 0,57 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia opp til 0,09 o C, fra -0,09 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis nedtil 0,45 o C, fra 0,66 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære som er opp til 10 km høyde (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære. Nytt i UAH-lenken ovenfor er at det er oppgitt data for hav- og landtemperatur i hver region. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For mer informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña) som kan gi klare utslag på den enkelte måned, se Klimanytt120.
Temperaturtrender – atmosfære og hav
- Klimapanelets trend (fra 1990 Scenario A, uten klimatiltak) varslet 0.3o C/tiår global oppvarming fra 1990-2090.
- Klimapanelets trend nå (fra CMIP6-modellene i 6.hovedrapport) varsler global oppvarming på 0,386 o C/tiår
- Observert oppvarming fra 1990 er 0,137o C/tiår.
- UAHs temperaturtrend i troposfæren fra 1979 (532 mnd) er 0,13o C pr tiår, fordelt på 0,11o C over hav og 0,18o C over land.
- Klimapanelets trend er 0.26°C pr tiår for 1984–1998 og 0.04°C pr tiår for varmepausen 1998–2012».
- Havenes temperaturtrend (ARGO-data) er 0,02°C pr tiår for perioden 2004-2023.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin nyeste ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren ovenfor, i en fersk analyse (26. juni). Det er El Niño status nå. For høst og vinter er det 90 % sjanse for en El Niño. Modellene er lite presise i første halvår, men de forventer nå en gradvis sterkere El Niño-effekt kommende vinter.
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