21. March 2023
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Global temperatur mai 2021

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

Global temperatur mai 2021

Vi har temperaturdata for mai fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for mai er med 0,08 o C lite opp fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.

UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren

UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Mai 2021 er med (0,08 o C) lite opp fra forrige måneds (-0,05 o C). Med maidataene er vi ferdig med hovedeffekten av vinterens La Niña på troposfæren.

  • Nordlige halvkule noe opp til 0,14 o C, fra 0,05 o C forrige mnd.
  • Sydlige halvkule noe opp til 0,03 o C, fra – 0,15 o C forrige mnd.
  • Tropene litt opp til 0,06 o C, fra – 0,28 o C forrige mnd.
  • USA48 klarere ned til -0,41 o C, fra -0,02 o C forrige mnd.
  • Arktis nær uendret, til -0,04 o C, fra 0,02 o C forrige mnd.
  • Australia litt ned til 0,02 o C, fra 0,29 o C forrige mnd.

Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære, men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.

ENSO-varsler

ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña  (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.

NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (31. mai) nøytrale forhold (men negative verdier) på nordlige halvkule gjennom resten av året og inn i vinteren.

Meteorologene  i Australia melder nøytrale forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet. De viser i en analyse 25. mai til at alle internasjonale klimamodeller viser nøytrale forhold minst de neste seks månedene.

Var årets mai «unormalt» kjølig?

Overskriften her er lånt fra Værstat, som ser på tallenes tale for Norge. Temperaturdata analyseres for et utvalg av målestasjoner, og tallene viser intet unormalt i forhold til det man kan forvente fra naturlige variasjoner.

Flere andre regioner på kloden vår har sett få tegn til vår og sommer i mai måned, og det har vært uvanlig kjølig både i USA, i India, på New Zealand og i Argentina. Central Park i New York registrerte 29.mai 10,6 grader C som den laveste daglige makstemperatur siden 1884 for avslutningen av vårsesongen. Twittermeldingen gjengitt under viser flere kulderrekorder i USA i mai, og at det er lenge siden det har vært så kaldt i deler av landet.

Delhi i India opplevde den kaldeste maidagen siden 1951, og hele 16 grader kaldere enn normalen.

Men ifølge en av de galeste grønne er observasjoner av lav temperatur samt alle tegn til at det ikke finnes noen klimakrise, bare en myte, mens han selv forvalter sannheten. Se også Værstat for deres oppgjør med Bellona som skal overvåke «omfanget av klimamyter», men istedet har sett seg nødt til å avslutte mai med å fjerne grove beskyldninger fra eget nettsted.

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