by https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/02/23/global-temperatur-og-klimaendringer-forklart/
Global temperatur og klimaendringer forklart
- februar 23, 2022
- 21:32
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Atmosfære, Drivhuseffekten, Hermann harde, Klimamodeller, Sol, Temperatur, Vitenskap
Forfattet av Petter Tuvnes.
Nye vitenskapelige rapporter bekrefter nå overbevisende at menneskeskapte utslipp av den livsviktige plantenæringen CO2 i atmosfæren har en ubetydelig innflytelse på global temperatur og dermed også på klimaendringer. Andre prosesser i atmosfæren kan forklare global temperatur og klima, nemlig solinnstråling og atmosfæretrykk.
Den rådende (konsensus) drivhusteorien til FNs klimapanel IPCC er forklart i rapporten AR5 WG1 kap. 2 med fig. 2.11 som illustrasjon (2013), og videreført i AR6 (2021). IPCC-forklaringen baserer seg på et statisk en-dimensjonalt energibudsjett hvor jorden er brettet ut til en flate, og solinnstrålingen er fordelt på hele flaten ved å dele på 4 fordi flaten av en kule er 4 ganger så stor som en flate med snitt gjennom ekvator (den flate siden av en halvkule). Modellen har dermed gjort jorden flat og solen kald, uten rotasjon og uten dag og natt. Modellen brukes til å forklare at det er en tilbakestråling av energi fra atmosfæren, som er over dobbelt så stor som solinnstrålingen til jordoverflaten, som er årsak til drivhuseffekten, og forklaring på at global temperatur ligger på ca. 14 – 15 °C. Denne flat-jord-kald-sol-modellen stemmer ikke med virkeligheten, og er opphav til at mer avanserte klimamodeller (GSM global sirculation models) heller ikke stemmer med virkeligheten fordi for stor betydning tillegges CO2, se artikkelen «Skinner solen på hele eller halve jorden?»
Allerede på 1800-tallet ble det klart at CO2 kan absorbere noe langbølget varmestråling (Tyndall 1859), men verken han eller andre har hittil greid å måle noen temperaturendring som følge av dette, verken i laboratorium (Allmendinger 2017) eller i atmosfæren (Feldman et al. 2015).
Nå har Herman Harde og Michael Schnell (H&S) greid å måle at CO2 har en temperatureffekt (drivhuseffekt) i laboratorium, beskrevet i denne artikkelen. Fra sammendraget:
«We measure the additional warming of a pre-heated plate due to back-radiation of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide as a function of the gas concentration, and we derive from the observed warming the radiative forcing of these gases. The measurements are well confirmed by radiation transfer calculations and underline that there exists no climate emergency.»
Og noen utdrag fra konklusjonen:
«it is an interesting curiosity that, had convection produced a uniform temperature, there wouldn’t be a greenhouse effect (Lindzen, 2018 [34])»
«Simply expressed: the greenhouse effect contributes to some warming of the Earth’s surface and by this also to some additional convection, but not to any remarkable direct warming of the air temperature. At least that is the lesson learned from the experiments with CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. This finding is of particular importance since air warming is a necessary prerequisite for the alleged CO2-water vapor feedback, without which there would be no threatening Earth warming.»
«Already the presented measurements and calculations demonstrate the only small impact on global warming with increasing GH-gas concentrations due to the strong saturation.»
Atmosfæren er mettet
Laboratorieeksperimentene har vist at atmosfæren nå er mettet når det gjelder drivhusgasser og deres innvirkning på temperatur, og det er det samme som i den teoretiske analysen til Wijngaarden og Happer, 2020. Mer CO2 tilført atmosfæren har liten effekt.
H&S finner at menneskets påvirkning i realiteten er så liten at den kan ignoreres når det gjelder global temperatur og klimaendringer, noe mange er kommet til før dem (f.eks. Happer, Koonin, Lindzen her). Drivhusteorien til IPCC er dermed bevist å være sterkt overdrevet.
Hva med Venus ?
En teori eller modell må stemme for alle himmellegemer med en atmosfære hvis den skal være riktig. Forskerne Mulholland og Wilde (M&W) har undersøkt om IPCC-modellen fungerer på Venus.
Venus har en atmosfære med 96 % CO2 og et trykk på 92 atmosfærer. Det er vanlig å tro at drivhuseffekten som følge av mye CO2 er meget sterk på Venus. M&W modellerer steg for steg hvordan energi kan fordele seg først over en fiktiv planet med en solside og en mørk side, og videreutvikler den modellen til å gjelde for en roterende planet med dag og natt og atmosfære, for til slutt å sammenligne med Venus. Fremgangsmåten kalles invers modellering, og er mye brukt innen geofysikk.
Både konveksjon (vertikal strømning), adveksjon (horisontal strømning) og stråling som energifordelende mekanismer er inkludert i analysen. Solinnstråling gir energi til en «Dynamic-Atmosphere Energy-Transport» (DAET) som sammen med meteorologiske prosesser mottar energi kontinuerlig fra solen og holder på energien i et dynamisk system i likevekt med avkjølende utstråling.
I konklusjonen fastslår M&W bl. a:
It implies that the greenhouse effect is a pressure dependent effect (as per James Clark Maxwell) and not a radiant feed-back effect (contra Svante Arrhenius).
IPCC-modellen stemmer altså ikke for Venus, men det gjør en modell hvor solinnstråling og atmosfæretrykket er bestemmende. Solen varmer opp planeten, noe som gir konveksjon. Tyngdekraften drar kald atmosfære ned igjen slik at høyere trykk bidrar til ny oppvarming, lik føhnvind, i samsvar med gassloven (pV=nRT, trykk p multiplisert med volum V gir temperatur T med n konstant gassmengde og R er gasskonstanten.
Denne dynamiske atmosfæresirkulasjonen holder på energi (en analogi kan være et svinghjul, som også holder på energi).
Tilbakestrålings-forklaring uten betydning
M&W har også gjennomført sin DAET analyse på Jorden i rapporten «Return to Earth: A New Mathematical Model of the Earth’s Climate.»
I motsetning til IPCC-modellen med en statisk flat jord uten dag og natt så analyserer M&W en realistisk dynamisk modell av Jorden med rotasjon, dag og natt. Forholdene på Jorden medfører at det oppstår meteorologiske celler i atmosfæren; Hadleyceller i tropene, Ferretceller i temperert sone og Polare celler nord for Polarsirkelen. M&W påpeker at soloppvarming på solsiden skaper konveksjoner som også fører til trykkinduserte adiabatiske prosesser med avkjøling av stigende ekspanderende luft og motsatt oppvarming av synkende luft under kompresjon (føhnvindeffekt), f. eks. Hadley Cell sirkulasjon som skaper passatvinden. M&W viser at tilbakestrålings-forklaringen til IPCC er ubetydelig, og avslutter:
«We are able to quantify the degree of adiabatic lit surface energy partition in favour of the air by using the process of inverse modelling, a standard geoscience mathematical technique. The issue of atmospheric opacity then becomes a passive process, and the purported atmospheric action of greenhouse heating by back-radiation can be discounted. We believe that our modelling work presented here should lead to a fundamental reassessment of the atmospheric processes relating to energy partition, retention and flow within the Earth’s climate system.»
DAET-modellen for Jorden kan sammenlignes med en roterende motor (atmosfæren) med 3 tannhjul (de 3 store sirkulasjonsbeltene) hvor rotasjonen opprettholdes av energi (solen med gravitasjon).
Klima på himmellegemer med atmosfære
Forskerparet Nikolov og Zeller (N&Z) har undersøkt hva som bestemmer klima på himmellegemer med atmosfære. De har gitt ut den fagfellevurderte rapporten (2016) «New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model.»
N&Z har en annen tilnærming enn M&W. N&Z har brukt dimensjonal analyse hvor de har tatt utgangspunkt i målte (empiriske) data om forskjellige planeter med atmosfære, og ved hjelp av regresjonsanalyse funnet hvilke parametre som gir opphav til de empiriske data. En forklaring på planeters globale gjennomsnittstemperatur er parametrene solinnstråling og atmosfæretrykket, – akkurat det samme som M&W kom frem til, men med en annen analysemetode. N&Z viser at modellen stemmer for en rekke himmellegemer med atmosfære, se figur 1 ovenfor (N&Z fig. 4). Modellen er også i stand til å rekonstruere målt temperatur ved å modellere albedo (refleksjon fra skyer og overflate) og modell av absorbert solinnstråling, jfr. figur 2.
Forskjellen på IPCCs drivhuseffekt og atmosfæreeffekten (ATE) til N&Z er oppsummert i figur 3. Forklaringen på global temperatur og klima er dermed vist å være effektiv solinnstråling og atmosfæretrykk, – ikke CO2 eller andre ”drivhusgasser”. Klimaendringer eller endringer i global temperatur oppstår ved forandringer i effektiv solinnstråling til jordoverflaten, ofte modulert av kosmisk stråling (ref. prof. Henrik Svensmark). Mer CO2 i luften har i praksis ingen målbar effekt på verken global temperatur eller klima.
Modeller er forenklinger
Modeller er forenklinger, og ingen modeller er 100 % korrekte. M&W har tatt utgangspunkt i enkle modeller og videreutviklet dem til å ligne jorden ved å analysere hvordan atmosfæren vil reagere på solens energitilførsel i samvirke med gassloven og tyngdekraften slik at det oppstår atmosfæresirkulasjon.
N&Z har tatt utgangspunkt i målte verdier og analysert hvilke parametre som er årsak til disse verdier. De to forskergruppene har kommet til samme bestemmende parametre: solinnstråling og atmosfæretrykk.
IPCC-leiren har med sin uvirkelige statiske flat-jord-kald-sol-modell uten rotasjon forsøkt å forklare global temperatur fra en modell som ikke engang geometrisk ligner virkeligheten, men dette ”kartet” (modellen) stemmer altså ikke med ”terrenget” (virkeligheten). Da bør det være opplagt hva man bør sette sin lit til.
Demoniseringen av plantenæringen CO2 kan derfor avsluttes, og verden kan spare store beløp og ressurser, som i stedet kan brukes til bedre infrastruktur mot naturlige klimaendringer, samt til bedre levekår i fattige land ved å bygge ut rimelig fossil energi og atomenergi.
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