30. November 2022

Global temperatur oktober 2021. fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer.

 

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/11/03/global-temperatur-oktober-2021/

 

Global temperatur oktober 2021

Vi har temperaturdata for oktober fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for oktober er med 0,37 C noe opp fra forrige måned, i det femte året med global nedkjøling. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.

UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren

UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Oktober 2021 er med (0,37 C) noe opp fra forrige måneds (0,25 C).

  • Nordlige halvkule klart opp til 0,46 o C, fra 0,18 C forrige mnd.
  • Sydlige halvkule lite ned til 0,27 o C, fra 0,33 C forrige mnd.
  • Tropene klart opp med 0,33 C, fra 0,09 C forrige mnd.
  • USA48 noe opp til 0,84 C, fra 0,67 C forrige mnd.
  • Arktis kraftig opp til 0,63 C, fra 0,02 C forrige mnd.
  • Australia klart opp til 0,06 C, fra 0,37 C forrige mnd.

Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.

Temperaturtrend

Klimapanelets hovedrapport fra 2013/14 oppgir trenden i observasjonene, basert på bakkemålt temperatur (WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010): «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012».
For de som er interessert i oppvarmingstrenden i UAH-observasjonene siden januar 1979, uten å ta hensyn til trendskiftet i 1998, så opplyser Dr. Spencer at denne nå er 0,14C pr tiår (0,12C over hav og 0,18C over land).

Tysklands kanskje mest framtredende klimaforsker Hans von Storch, uttalte i et intervju med Der Spiegel i 2013 om temperaturtrenden: «In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero».

Klimamodeller som feiler grovt

Klimaforkynnere fra Institutt for klimapolitikk (Cicero) nytter enhver anledning til å lovprise klimamodellene, men her er virkeligheten:

Von Storch uttaler seg (samme sted, lenke ovenfor) om IPCC-leirens klimamodeller som er grunnlaget for de spenstige scenariene for framtidig temperaturutvikling: «If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario».

Ingen av modellene greidde å forutsi den nå 23 år lange temperaturpausen, og ingen av modellene som brukes i IPCC-leirens scenarier har temperaturpauser på 20 år. Bare en modell har en pause på 15 år eller mere. Forklaringen er at modellene bruker en alt for høy klimafølsomhet for CO2 både i fortid og i framtidige scenarier, tillegg til å jukse med tilbakekoblinger som de modellerer forsterkende til tross for at de er observert dempende.

Dette er i tillegg til at IPCC åpent innrømmer at modellene er ubrukelige til langtids projeksjoner av temperatur. Likevel vil ikke IPCCs politiske ledelse innrømme at modellene feiler, selv om flere av deres egne klimaforskere åpent påpeker at modellene er for varme, senest ut var Gavin Schmidt i GISS.

Kritikken over gjelder modellene CMIP5 til femte hovedrapport, mens CMIP6-modellene til årets hovedrapport er enda varmere samtidig som vi nå er i det femte året med global nedkjøling.

Hav, energi og masse

Energien vår klode mottar fra sola deponeres som varme enten i havet, i atmosfæren eller på land. Deponiet består i hovedsak av vannets masse i vannets ulike faser (gass/vanndamp, væske/vann eller fast form/is). Basert på data fra seneste 40 år går 94 % av varmen i havet, bare ca 1 % i atmosfæren siden den har bagatellmessig masse i forhold til havet og de siste 5 % i is og vann på klodens landareal. Av isen på land er 90 % i Antarktis og 9 % på Grønland, for det aller meste så høyt over havet at den ikke kan smelte. Det er en tidsforsinkelse på 40-50 år mellom solvariasjon (årsak) og havoppvarming i overflaten (virkning).

Havets temperatur er derfor mye viktigere enn atmosfærens. Havet er klodens klimatermostat. Vanndampen med skyer er altså den totalt dominerende drivhusgassen, mens CO2 hverken kan deponere energi eller utgjør noen betydelig del av drivhuseffekten. Figuren under er fra Ole Humlums Climate4you.com, og viser hvordan ENSO-variasjoner i Stillehavet gir sterke utslag i havoverflate-temperatur.

ENSO-varsler

ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña  (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.

NOAA i USA modellerer sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren under en fersk analyse (1. nov.) en sterk La Niña sesong fra oktober og gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. La Niña-sesongen er antatt å vare til og med april. Flere land forbereder seg på en kaldere vinter, og prisnivået på både kull, olje og naturgass har økt drastisk den siste tiden siden lagrene er uvanlig små og tilbudet er mindre enn etterspørselen.

La Niña-sesongen kan bli synlig i UAHs temperaturdata fra og med desember måned.

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