by Hentet:
https://klimarealistene.com/global-temperatur-oktober-2023/
Global temperatur oktober 2023
Temperaturdata for oktober fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur i perioden 1991-2020 (TLT) er både nær uforandret i oktober, med 0,93 o C, ift 0,90 o C i måneden før; og kan samtidig formuleres som varmeste oktober «noensinne». Vi har ifølge statistikerne en temperaturtrend uten målbar mennesklig påvirkning. En moderat El Niño har etablert seg og denne vil ifølge modellene holde seg gjennom kommende vinter.
UAH har temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», de bruker data fra NASAs satelitter og publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, det dekker 99 % av klodens overflate og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Oktober 2023 er noe opp til 0,93 o C, fra 0,90 o C måneden før.
- Nordlige halvkule opp til 1,02 o C, fra 0,94 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule ned til 0,83 o C, fra 0,86 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene opp med 1,00 o C, fra 0,93 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig opp til 0,99 o C, fra 0,40 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia kraftig ned til 0,62 o C, fra 1,17 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis ned til 0,92 o C, fra 1,13 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære som er opp til 10 km høyde (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære. Nytt i UAH-lenken ovenfor er at det er oppgitt data for hav- og landtemperatur i hver region. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For mer informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña) som kan gi klare utslag på den enkelte måned, se Klimanytt120.
Temperaturtrender – atmosfære og hav
Modellene det er vist til i de tre øverste kulepunktene forutsetter alle at all økning i temperatur skyldes menneskets utslipp. Er dette feil, så vil tallene i virkeligheten bli mye lavere.
- Klimapanelets trend (fra 1990-rapporten, dets scenario A, uten klimatiltak) varslet om 0.3o C/tiår global oppvarming fra 1990-2090.
- Klimapanelets trend nå (fra CMIP6-modellene i den nye 6.hovedrapport) varsler om global oppvarming på 0,386 o C/tiår.
- UAH-modellen (se info om den her) viser en t-økning på 1,9° Celsius/tiår (ECS) som følge av en dobling av atmosfærisk CO2.
- UAHs temperaturtrend i troposfæren, observert fra 1979 (534 mnd) er 0,14o C pr tiår, fordelt på 0,12o C over hav og 0,19o C over land.
- Klimapanelets trend er 0.26°C pr tiår for 1984–1998 og 0.04°C pr tiår for varmepausen 1998–2012».
- Havenes temperaturtrend (ARGO-data) er 0,02°C pr tiår for perioden 2004-2023.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin nyeste ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren ovenfor, i en fersk analyse (30. oktober). Oceanic Nino Index vist vertikalt i Kelvin til venstre i figuren. Vi har en moderat El Niño nå, og for høst og vinter er det 95 % sjanse for en moderat El Niño (ONI-verdi 1 – 1,5 grader Kelvin) gjennom kommende vinter. For våren (MAM) er det 80 % sjanse for El Niño.
Fra mildt til vinterlig høstvær
Fra Ole Østlids utmerkede nettsted Værstat henter vi som vanlig data for været i Norge i oktober måned, og fra en mild start på måneden snudde det i slutten til vinterlig høstvær. Analysen over oktoberværet over tid har noen steder små utslag i varmere retning, men for lite over for kort tid til at det kan defineres som en varmetrend. Altså, alt vær og uvær i Norge var i oktober som forventet utifra naturlige forhold.
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