Hvilke værdata legges til grunn for påstanden om «klimakrise»?
Under min tid som aktiv forsker pleide vi å relatere våre biologiske data til klimatiske normer, det som heter Normalen, ulike steder.
Endringer av både kvalitative og kvantitative variabler kan lett skyldes klimatiske faktorer i stedet for og/eller i tillegg til rent genetisk baserte faktorer. Det er internasjonalt vedtatt at data om temperatur og nedbør fremstilles i Normaler som beregnes etter hver 30-årige periode. Den første perioden vi nyttet var Normalen 1931-1960. Deretter kom Normalen 1961-1990, og nylig kom Normalen 1991-2020. (Meteorologisk Institutt).
Dersom en i dag ønsker å finne et mål for hvordan temperatur og nedbør har variert i landet gjennom siste 90 år, kan en sammenligne dataene for de tre foran nevnte Normal-periodene. Dette kan en gjøre for hvert enkelt målested i Norge, men fordi selve observasjonspunktet ikke har ligget på nøyaktig samme GPS-posisjon alle steder må en være litt varsom med hvilke steder en nytter i sammenligningen. I denne lille undersøkelsen har en valgt å nytte Oslo (Blindern), Trondheim (Voll), Tromsø («Værvarslinga») og Kautokeino (tettstedet). For at dette ikke skal bli for omfattende i en kort avisartikkel har en valgt middeltemperatur (grader C) for sommer (mai – august) og sum års-nedbør (i mm) nevnte steder. Dette er gjort for Normalen 1931-60, 1961-90 og 1991-2020 de fire stedene.
Tabellen blir da slik:
Oslo | Trondheim | Tromsø | Kautokeino | |
Temp/Nedbør | Temp/Nedbør | Temp/Nedbør | Temp/nedbør | |
1931-1960 | 14,6 / 740 | 11,7 / 857 | 9,1 / 994 | 9,1 / 317 |
1961-1990 | – 0,4 / – 23 | – 0,1 / – 2 | 0,0 / +35 | -0,3 / +59 |
1991-2020 | +0,6 / +96 | +0,2 / -18 | +0,4 / +94 | +0,5 / +103 |
Les også: Nei, vi lever ikke i katastrofenes århundre
Middeltallene viser at det i 30 års perioden mellom 1931-60 og 1961-90 har blitt en tanke lavere temperaturer (kjøligere) og noe mindre nedbør (tørrere) ved de oppgitte stasjoner. For siste 30 års periode (1991- 2020) har temperaturen vært en tanke høyere og det har kommet noe mer nedbør oppgitte steder med unntak for Trondheim. Her har temperaturen vært nesten uforandret siste 90 år, og nedbøren har fortsatt å avta til og med 1991-2020. I Kautokeino kan flytting av målepunktet være årsak til den noe større økningen av nedbøren der i siste periode.
En variansanalyse på materialet viser at temperatur og nedbør mellom Normal-periodene 1931-60, 1961-90 og 1991-2020 ikke er endret.
Konklusjonen blir da at det ikke er målbare endringer på verken temperatur eller nedbør i Norge siste 90 år. Mitt spørsmål er følgelig, hva det er som blir lagt til grunn når det påstås at vi har våtere og varmere vær, og «klimakrise».
I «beste fall» kan en betegne de observerte variablene som tegn på en svak klimavariasjon i Norge gjennom de siste 90 år. Variasjonen er ikke i nærheten av å bli betegnet som verken klimaendring eller «klimakrise».
Litt om isen i polområdene
I tillegg til temperatur og nedbør, er omfanget av havis i Barentshavet og Polhavet en annen målbar variabel som kan fortelle oss litt om vær og klima. Det har i mange år vært hevdet fra ulikt hold at klimaendringer har gjort at isen i Barentshavet og Polhavet aldri har hatt så lite omfang som nå, og at det ikke ville ta lang tid før skipstrafikken mellom Europa og Østen kunne ta «snarveien» nord for Sibir (Nordøstpassasjen). Men i løpet av siste to -tre år har det kommet flere forskningsrapporter som viser andre resultater. Som eksempel kan nevnes publikasjonen «Changes in Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE) position the last 440 years». (Mørner, Solheim, Humlum og Falk-Petersen. The BIE project ). Her fremgår at det i løpet av siste 440 år har vært flere varme perioder, og iskanten (BIE) har ligget mellom 76. og 82. breddegrad. Og en fersk rapport fra Havforskningsinstituttet , «Barentshavet har blitt kjøligere – det flytter iskanten lenger sør». (R. ingvaldsen. H.i.) viser kjøligere hav siste fem år.
Med andre ord også på dette området viser forskningen at de fremsatte påstandene om klimaendringer og «klimakrise» med mer er misvisende og feilaktige.
Les også: Klimaskremslene er kvasivitenskap
Konkluderende kommentar
Refererte resultater kan kanskje tyde på at vi har en svak tendens til en klimavariasjon, men ikke i nærheten av noen «klimakrise»! At politikere og «menigmann» beskriver situasjonen slik av mangel på data kan vel forstås. Men når offentlige institusjoner som Miljødirektoratet fremstiller klimasaken på denne måten uten datahenvisning, da er det grunn til å si fra. Det er også grunn til å nevne at FNs Klimapanel hevder at temperaturen på kloden er i jamn stigning. Og styret i klimapanelet vedtok i 2020 at «verden har klimakrise». Men «bevisene» er observerte temperaturer fra x antall steder på jorden, og disse er mest sannsynlig urbaniserte steder der menneskelig aktivitet medfører oppmagasinering av varme. Når tallene da oppgis uten +/- middelavvik, så har panelet et svakt grunnlag til å «vedta en klimakrise».
I dag blir det stadig fremsatt på nettet en rekke udokumenterte påstander om klima og klimaendringer. Blant annet fra statlige institusjoner. Som eksempel: «Klimaendringene er allerede her. Vi har økende temperatur og nedbør, snø og is smelter, havet stiger, planter og dyr vil få problemer og noen dør ut» og så videre. Årsak: «menneskeskapt CO2-utslipp». At «vi har» økende temperatur og nedbør stemmer ikke med offisielle målinger i Norge (som vist til her). Og noen havstigning er ikke registrert etter det jeg vet. Når det gjelder påståtte alvorlige problemer for planter og dyr skal det påpekes at den naturlige arvelige base for genetisk variasjon i alle arter har en nesten ubegrenset adaptiv evne for å tilpasse seg klimatiske endringer. Derimot er det mye større og alvorligere fare for at arter av planter og dyr kan stryke med grunnet menneskers bruk og misbruk av kjemikalier og andre direkte dødelige stoffer. Her har den naturlige genetiske base virkelig problemer, og på dette området er det vel reelt behov for et FN-panel.
Innlegget ble først publisert Nordnorsk debatt.
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