Original, på engelsk:
Jeg (altså Willis) listet opp noen av de følgende fakta i mitt forrige innlegg, og en kommentator sa at de var viktige nok til å fortjene et selvstendig innlegg … Jeg er enig.
Til tross for at jeg har spurt om og om igjen i en rekke fora, har ingen til dags dato vært i stand til å fortelle meg akkurat hva denne antatte «KLIMAKRISEN!!» faktisk er, og hvor jeg kan finne bevis for at den eksisterer. Her er noen fakta for folk som mener at klimaet er en reell fare for menneskeheten.
Dødsfall fra klimarelaterte fenomener er på et helt lavt nivå. Hvis du tror at dødsfall fra klimarelaterte katastrofer er en nødsituasjon, kan du peke i grafen nedenfor til starten av «nødsituasjonen». I løpet av 100 år har klimarelaterte dødsfall gått NED med mer enn 90 %.
Les også: Litt mer global oppvarming og CO2 kan være fordelaktig
Uvær som stormer har ikke gått opp, og det har ikke vært noen økning i orkaners styrke eller frekvens … ingen «krise» eller «nødsituasjon» der.
Selv IPCC sier at det bare er en sjanse på fem («lav tillit/sannsynlighet») for at global tørke øker (se notat på slutten av artikkelen). Heller ikke de «våte områdene er blitt våtere og de tørre områdene er blitt tørrere». Ingen global flom- eller tørke-krise. Trenden varierer omkring null. Som alltid med uvær og klima så kan det være store lokale variasjoner.
Les også: Anmeldelse: To realistiske bøker om klima
Tørke i USA har gått ned, – og ikke økt.
Globale tap forårsaket av værkatastrofer i prosent av risiko i aktiva (global BNP) synker og øker ikke.
Alarmister fortsetter å legge ut skremmende grafer over tapet av polaris, som disse fra Antarktis og Grønland.
Les også: Ingen holdbare «bevis» for at CO2 bidrar målbart til global oppvarming eller klimaendringer
De ser helt skremmende ut og som nødsituasjoner … inntil du innser at de ignorerer virkeligheten av hvor mye is det er på disse stedene. Her er de tilsvarende endringene i total ismasse for de to stedene. Ikke noen synlig tendens.
Tidevannsmålinger viser ingen økning i stigningen i havnivå, og den påståtte akselerasjonen i satellittmålt havnivå er bare en effekt av å endre satellitter fra 2010.
Landbaserte målinger viser ca. 1,8 mm/år. 18 cmpr. 100 år. Det er en endring det er mulig å ta forholdsregler mot, slik som man har gjort i Nederland.
Isbjørner, en gang betraktet som «kanarifuglen i kullgruven» for «klimakrisen», klarer seg veldig bra, takk.
Matproduksjon
Utbyttet av alle større matavlinger fortsetter å øke, og mennesker får mer mat, klær og beskyttelse mot værets ubehag enn noen gang tidligere.
Landtemperaturen har allerede steget mer enn de fryktede 2 ° C, uten katastrofale konsekvenser … det har ikke vært noen historisk «klimatilfelle» til tross for temperaturøkninger.
Klimaspådommer:
Ingen av de endeløse katastrofespådommene fra alarmistene har gått i oppfyllelse …
Det har ikke vært noen global økning i antall skogbranner … her er NASAs satellittdata
Og her er dataene fra Canada …
Økt CO2 forårsaker økt plantevekst over hele kloden, noe som øker matforsyningen til mennesker og dyr. Her er dataene fra NASA. Jorden er blitt grønnere med økt CO2 og en svak global oppvarming.
Ærlige mennesker, inkludert IPCC-tjenestemenn, har innrømmet at «klimasaken» bare er en unnskyldning for å omfordele global velstand.
Svært varme dager i USA, over 100 ° F (37 ° C) var mye høyere på 1930-tallet enn på noe annet tidspunkt de siste 125 årene.
Det er ikke noe tegn på «50 millioner klimaflyktninger innen 2010» som FN trygt spådde i 2005.
Korallatoller synker ikke under havflaten, faktisk øker mange i størrelse.
Sterke tornadoer i USA avtar.
Det er ingen tegn til den sagnomsuste «Sixth Wave Of Extinctions» (sjette bølge av utrydning av truede dyrearter).
Klimamodeller har rutinemessig spådd langt større oppvarming enn det som faktisk har skjedd.
Dette burde ikke overraske noen; – upåliteligheten til klimaprognosene har lenge vært anerkjent, selv av IPCC, som har innrømmet:
«I sum må en strategi erkjenne hva som er mulig. I klimaforskning og modellering, bør vi erkjenne at vi har å gjøre med et sammenkoblet ikke-lineært kaotisk system, og derfor at den langsiktige spådommen om fremtidige klimastater ikke er mulig.»
IPCC Third Assessment Report, The Scientific Basis 14 2 2 2, s.774
I tillegg har all værrisiko dramatisk forutsagt av klimalarmister vært med oss for alltid – flom, ild, sult, tørke, hetebølger, orkaner, tornadoer. Alle er like eldgamle som åsene. Vi er beskyttet mot værets ubehag av en ting – rikdom! Det er de fattigste i verden som er mest utsatt for flom, ild og sult. Da jeg ble født, levde omtrent tre fjerdedeler av verden på mindre enn 1,90 dollar per dag. Nå lever det under 10% av verden under disse forholdene.
Denne økningen i rikdom har blitt drevet og drevet av en ting … energi, hovedsakelig i form av fossile brensler.
Så hvis vi ønsker å fortsette å beskytte mennesker fra de eldgamle ødeleggende effektene av været, må vi opprettholde og øke mengden billig energi tilgjengelig, spesielt for de fattige. Hvis du insisterer på å bekjempe den imaginære klimafaren, må du i det minste ha omsorg og menneskelig anstendighet til ikke å gjøre det til skade for de fattige ved å øke energikostnadene, enten ved «karbonavgifter» eller på noen annen måte. Jeg diskuterte denne viktigste saken i innlegget mitt Vi har møtt 1%, og det er oss
Klimakrisen skal teoretisk være forårsaket av øking i varmende stråling fra atmosfæren og ned på jordoverflaten på grunn av økt mengde CO2 i luften. Øking i stråling skal skyldes endringene i CO2 fra 1750 til i dag, og endringen som i teorien vil skje i fremtiden når CO2 øker fra sin nåverdi til dobbelt så mye som 1750-verdien. I følge den allment aksepterte (men omdiskuterte) påstanden om at strålingen fra en dobling av CO2 er 3,5 watt per kvadratmeter (W / m2). Figuren nedenfor viser at en slik endring knapt er synlig i søylediagram med total stråling hvor solen dominerer.
Endringene i stråling mot jorden fra økningen i CO2 er forsvinnende små.
«Klimakrisen» fremstilles som en «nødsituasjon», som normalt defineres som «en alvorlig, uventet og ofte farlig situasjon som krever umiddelbar handling.» Alarmister har advart oss om og om igjen om den påståtte forestående «nødsituasjonen» i 50 år, så den er neppe «uventet». Ingen av deres endeløse spådommer om nært forestående tragedie har gått i oppfyllelse og til tross for flere tiår med advarsel, er det ikke blitt tatt noen signifikant «umiddelbar handling» … så per definisjon kan det ikke være en nødsituasjon.
I de siste femti år er vi blitt fortalt hvert år at vi bare har fem, ti eller tjue år før katastrofen … Jeg mener, seriøst, hvordan kan folk fremdeles tro disse seriøse mislykkede dommedagsprofeter?
Så før vi bruker billioner av dollar på en uoppnåelig plan om å omkalfatre hele den globale energiforsyningen totalt, hva med å vente til noen faktisk fortelle os om den store hemmeligheten – akkurat hvor er denne mystiske «KLIMAKRISEN !!!», og når startet den?
Mine aller beste ønsker til alle, og trekk pusten dypt – det er ingen forestående Thermageddon ™ (dommedag) rett rundt hjørnet … w. (Willis).
Sluttnotat:
FNs klimapanel IPCC mener heller ikke at det er noen klimakrise
IPCC-sitater: Her er noen representative sitater fra Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) angående hva forskerne har «lav tillit» til (vektlegging er min). Vær oppmerksom på at «lav tillit» i IPCC-språk betyr at det bare er en sjanse av fem at en uttalelse er riktig (relativt lav sannsynlighet) … ikke odds du vil satse hele økonomien din på.
Direkte sitater fra diverse ipcc-rapporter
(Dessverre skrevet i et kvasi-vitenskapelig byråkratspråk av IPCC, som er vanskelig å oversette)
Virkningen av endringer i flomegenskapene er også sterkt avhengig av hvordan klimaendringer i fremtiden blir, og som nevnt i avsnitt 3.5.2 er det lav tillit til forventede endringer i flomstørrelse eller frekvens.
Det er inkonsekvente mønstre av endring i kraftig nedbør i Afrika og delvis mangel på data; det er derfor lav tillit til observerte nedbørstrender
Det er middels tillit til anslåtte endringer i stormer mot polare strøk fra tempererte strøk, men lav tillit til detaljerte regionale anslag
Det er således lav tillit til at nivået som global oppvarming er på nå kan føre til svært høy risiko forbundet med ekstreme værhendelser i sammenheng med denne rapporten.
Lav tillit til en observert global skala i tørke eller tørrhet (mangel på nedbør) siden 1950-tallet på grunn av mangel på direkte observasjoner, metodisk usikkerhet og valg og geografiske uoverensstemmelser i trendene
Lav tillit til å tilskrive endringer i tørke over globale landområder siden midten av 1900-tallet til menneskelig innflytelse på grunn av observasjonsusikkerhet og vanskeligheter med å skille mellom variasjon i tørke fra dekadeskala og langsiktige trender.
IPCC AR5 (Assessment Report 5 fra 2013) understreket lav tillit til en global målestokk i tørke, på grunn av mangel på direkte observasjoner, avhengighet av utledede trender med indeksvalget, samt vanskeligheter med å skille langsiktige klimaendringer fra dekadeskala tørkevariabilitet
Tropiske sykloner anslås å avta i frekvens, men med en økning i antall meget intense sykloner (begrenset bevis, lav tillit ).
Det er således lav tillit til at nivået på nåværende global oppvarming kan føre til svært høy risiko forbundet med ekstreme værhendelser i sammenheng med denne rapporten.
Observerte globale endringer i vannsyklusen, inkludert nedbør, er mer usikre enn observerte temperaturendringer (Hartmann et al., 2013; Stocker et al., 2013). Det er høy tillit til at gjennomsnittlig nedbør over landområdene på den nordlige halvkule har økt siden 1951 (Hartmann et al., 2013). For andre breddesoner har områdesnittet langsiktige positive eller negative trender lav tillit på grunn av dårlig datakvalitet, ufullstendige data eller uenighet blant tilgjengelige estimater (Hartmann et al., 2013). Spesielt er det lav tillit angående observerte trender i nedbør i monsunregioner, ifølge SREX-rapporten (Seneviratne et al., 2012) og AR5 (Hartmann et al., 2013), samt nyere publikasjoner (Singh et al., 2014; Taylor et al. ., 2017; Bichet og Diedhiou, 2018; se Supplerende materiale 3.SM.2).
Følgelig er den nåværende vurderingen at det er lav tillit med hensyn til endringer i monsuner ved disse lavere globale oppvarmingsnivåene, samt angående forskjeller i monsunresponser ved 1,5 ° C versus 2 ° C.
IPCC AR5 vurderte at det var lav tillit til tegn på tørketrender siden 1950 på verdensbasis.
AR5 vurderte at det var lav tillit til tilskrivningen av globale endringer i tørke og ga ikke vurderinger for tilskrivning av regionale endringer i tørke (Bindoff et al., 2013a)
Slike motsetninger, i kombinasjon med det faktum at den nesten fire tiår lange perioden med eksternt registrerte observasjoner fortsatt er relativt kort for å skille menneskeskapte induserte trender fra dekadal og multidekadal variasjon, innebærer at det bare er lav tillit til endringer i global tropisk syklon antall under global oppvarming de siste fire tiårene.
På samme måte har ikke CMIP5-modellsimuleringer av den historiske perioden produsert antropogeninduserte trender i veldig intense tropiske sykloner (Bender et al., 2010; Knutson et al., 2010, 2013; Camargo, 2013; Christensen et al., 2013), konsistente med funnene fra Klotzbach og Landsea (2015). Det er følgelig lav tillit til konklusjonen om at antallet meget intense sykloner øker globalt.
AR5 vurderte at det under lav klimagassvirkning (3 ° C eller 4 ° C av global oppvarming) er det lav tillit til anslag for endring mot nord-polen av stormer, mens det er høy tillit til at det vil være et liten ending mot sør-polen av stormer på den sørlige halvkule (Stocker et al., 2013). I sammenheng med denne rapporten er vurderingen at det er begrenset bevis og lav tillit til om noe projisert signal for høyere oppvarmingsnivåer ville manifestere seg tydelig under 2 ° C av global oppvarming.
Collins et al. (2013) vurderte lav tillit til Antarktis havissprognoser på grunn av det store spekteret av modellprojeksjoner og manglende evne til nesten alle modeller å reprodusere observasjoner som sesongsyklus, interårlig variabilitet og den langsiktige langsomme temperaturøkningen.
Det var lav tillit, på grunn av begrenset bevis,om at menneskeskapte klimaendringer har påvirket hyppigheten og størrelsen på flom. WGII AR5 konkluderte også med at det ikke er bevis for at tørkefrekvensen for overflatevann og grunnvann har endret seg de siste tiårene, selv om tørkepåvirkningene har økt hovedsakelig på grunn av økt vannbehov (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014).
Redusert havoppstrømning har implikasjoner for millioner av mennesker og næringer som er avhengige av fiskeri for mat og levebrød (Bakun et al., 2015; FAO, 2016; Kämpf and Chapman, 2016), selv om det er lav tillit til anslagene av størrelsen på konsekvensene ved 1,5 ° C
Bevis for en svekkelse av AMOC har økt siden AR5 (Smeed et al., 2014; Rahmstorf et al., 2015a, b; Kelly et al., 2016), men likevel mangler en sterk årsakssammenheng med klimaendringer ( lav tillit )
Størrelsen på den globale havnivåstigningen som kan oppstå i løpet av de neste to århundrene under 1,5 ° C – 2 ° C av global oppvarming, anslås å være i størrelsesorden flere tiendedeler meter ifølge de fleste studier ( lav konfidens )
Selv om begrensning av den globale temperaturøkningen til 2 ° C forventes å redusere avlingstap under klimaendringer i forhold til høyere oppvarmingsnivå, kan de tilhørende reduseringskostnadene øke risikoen for sult i lavinntektsland ( lav tillit )
Samlet sett forventes det ikke å forekomme noen statistisk signifikante endringer i BNP over det meste av den utviklede verden under 1,5 ° C av den globale oppvarmingen sammenlignet med dagens forhold, men under 2 ° C av global oppvarming påvirkes BNP generelt til å være negativ. ( lav selvtillit )
Videre forventes daglig nedbørsintensitet og avrenning å øke ( lav tillit ) mot 2 ° C og høyere nivåer av global oppvarming
Et sammenbrudd i permafrost kan forekomme (lav tillit); et drastisk bio-skifte fra tundra til boreal skog er mulig ( lav tillit )
Antall undersøkelser av hvordan trefraksjonen kan reagere i Arktis på forskjellige grader av global oppvarming er begrenset, og studier indikerer generelt at det vil trolig forekomme betydelig økning gradvis (f.eks. Lenton et al., 2008). Plutselige endringer er bare sannsynlige ved oppvarmingsnivåer som er betydelig høyere enn 2 ° C ( lav konfidens ) og vil forekomme i forbindelse med kollaps i permafrost.
En enkelt modellprojeksjon (Drijfhout et al., 2015) antydet at høyere temperaturer kan indusere en mindre isfraksjon i jord i tundraen, noe som fører til raskere oppvarming av jord og en positiv tilbakemeldingsmekanisme som resulterer i permafrostkollaps ( lav tillit ).
Gitt at scenarier på 1,5 ° C eller 2 ° C med global oppvarming vil inkludere en vesentlig mindre strålingskraft enn de som ble vurdert i studien av Jiang og Tian (2013), er det lav tillit til endringer i monsuner ved disse lave globale oppvarmingsnivåene, så vel som angående forskjellene mellom responser ved 1,5 ° C versus 2 ° C oppvarming.
Det antas å eksistere et vippepunkt for betydelig tilbakegang av de boreale skogene, hvor økt tre-dødelighet vil resultere i dannelsen av store regioner med åpne skogsområder og gressletter, noe som vil favorisere ytterligere regional oppvarming og økte brannfrekvenser, og dermed indusere en kraftig positiv tilbakemelding mekanisme (Lenton et al., 2008; Lenton, 2012). Dette vippepunktet er estimert til å eksistere mellom 3 ° C og 4 ° C med global oppvarming ( lav konfidens ) (Lucht et al., 2006; Kriegler et al., 2009), men gitt kompleksiteten i de forskjellige tvangsmekanismene og tilbakemeldingen prosesser involvert, antas dette å være et usikkert estimat.
Disse endringene kan klassifiseres som inkrementelle i stedet for å representere et vippepunkt. Storskala reduksjoner i avling av maisavlinger, inkludert potensiell kollaps av denne avlingen i noen regioner, kan eksistere under 3 ° C eller mer av global oppvarming ( lav tillit )
Under 3 ° C av global oppvarming, kan betydelige reduksjoner i områdene som er egnet for husdyrproduksjon forekomme ( lav tillit )
Tropiske sykloner anslås å avta i frekvens, men med en økning i antall meget intense sykloner (begrenset bevis, lav tillit ).
Klimamodeller inkluderer nå flere sky- og aerosolprosesser og deres interaksjoner enn på tidspunktet for AR4, men
det er fortsatt lav tillit til representasjonen og kvantifiseringen av disse prosessene i modeller.
Utslipp av CO2 eller CH4 til atmosfæren fra tining av permafrost-karbonlagre i løpet av det 21. århundre er vurdert å være i området 50 til 250 GtC for RCP8.5 ( lav konfidens ).
Alt i alt lav tillit til at det er eller kan bli noen klimakatastrofe (Petters bemerkning).
Av Willis Eschenbach , amerikansk skribent
Oversatt og bearbeidet av spaltist i Resett, sivilingeniør og samfunnsengasjert klimarealist Petter Tuvnes
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