by
Klima-agurkmåneden juli
- juli 18, 2021
- 18:51
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Ekstremvær, Klimapolitikk
Sommeren pleide å være høysesong for useriøs nyhetsformidling, også for klima. Etter at klimaskremming ble helårsgeskjeftigelse i media, prøver noen fortsatt å gjøre en ekstra innsats i juli. Her er to av de seneste sakene.
Regnskogen som klimaversting
Ved statens institutt for klimapolitikk (Cicero) sysler de med så mangt. Nå forkynnes det av Marianne Tronstad Lund i VG at regnskogen er en klimavesting, siden de i sin visdom har funnet at den slipper ut mer CO2 enn den fanger opp. Årsaken hevdes å være de mange skogbrannene (samt avskoging) de seneste årene. Det har de lest i The Guardian som er hysterisk klimatroende, og da må det være sant. Legg merke til at det forskes på utslipp av CO2, mens det manger data for den andre halvdelen av kretsløpet som viser skogens deponering av fangede CO2-molekyler. Vi har omtalt useriøse påstander om Amazonas-skogen tidligere her. Ved Cicero vil de naturligvis ikke hevde noe som setter egne politiske arbeidsplasser i fare.
Legg merke til at VG og klimaforkynner Lund forholder seg til en svært kort referanseperiode for både avskogning og skogbranner. Påstanden er at det står dårligere til nå enn før, men her skriver The Guardian om avskoging fra august 2019 til juli året etter, at årets tap er hele 11088 km2, det verste året siden 2008. Regner vi om for å sammenligne med figuren til venstre, så får vi 4281 (sq.miles). Det er altså mindre avskogning nå enn i alle år fra perioden 1988 til 2008 (unntatt 1991). Ergo må Amazonas ha vært en mye mer dominerende klimavesting før 2008, forutsatt at vi aksepterer premisset om skogen som et klimaproblem.
VG-oppslaget er ellers subjektivt som forventet, med henvisning til bukk-og-havresekk aktøren Regnskogfondet, som administrerer en stor pengestrøm fra Norge til Brasil, hvor Riksrevisjonen i en rapport har kommet med drepende kritikk mot prosjektet.
Ingen som kan korrigere det falske narrativet slipper til.
Når flom blir klimakrise
Sommeren hos oss er høysesong for klimaskremming, helst forbundet med for mye varme eller for lite varme, for lite nedbør eller for mye nedbør eller for mange skogbranner et eller annet sted. Man tar det klima naturen leverer og selger det meste som menneskeskapt klimakrise.
Felles for denne aktiviteten er at man sammenligner med historiske data bare så langt tilbake dataene passer til eventyret. Data som viser at det var verre før utelates, ofte i et samrøre mellom aktører i klimakriseindustrien og alt for grønne journalister. Andre ganger sensurerer redaktører og andre portvoktere det journalisten skriver, slik at bare det som behager klimaministeriet slipper ut.
Nå tidlig i juli har det gått i ett med useriøs formidling fra den varme delen av USA, mens det har vært musestille angående den kalde delen av USA. Er det for vanskelig for media å selge høytrykk sammen med tilhørende lavtrykk som naturlig sommervær?
Storflommen i Europa nå som følge av at en måneds normalnedbør faller på 2 døgn over deler av Tyskland er ikke unik (Wien fikk 7 ukes nedbør på 1 time, ifølge BBC). Vann er fortsatt vått og forårsaker i slike mengder store skader langs elvene Rhinen eller Donau på sin vei mot havet. Det samme skjedde i 2002 med ca 110 liv tapt i 7 land, og førte dengang til at det ble opprettet et europeisk varslingsystem (EFAS – European Flood Awareness System) slik at man kunne unngå et lignende uakseptabelt tap av menneskeliv.
Her sviktet alt i år, til tross for at tyske myndigheter fikk det første flomvarsel av EFAS 10.juli. Så fulgte detaljerte varsler, hvor Rhineland ville bli rammet av «ekstrem» flom, spesielt langs elvene Erft og Ahr, og i byer som Hagen og Altena. Varslene viste seg å være ekstremt treffsikre, men politikere og forvaltning sov godt, eller de var på ferie eller opptatt av EUs nye klimaplan og kampen mot utslipp av klima-sporgassen CO2. Ingen tenkte på hva den dominerende «klimagassen» H2O kunne forårsake av skade hvis den brått skiftet fase til vann og falt ned. Siden ingen har pønsket ut en metode for å profitere på vanndamp i klimasaken, så utelater de skyldige alltid vanndampen i klimadebatten.
Blokkerende lavtrykk, sier meteorologene om slikt vær, men i media og blant politikere blir dette ekstremvær, og underforstått eller påstått menneskeskapt klimakrise. Det er kjent at det på en klode med global oppvarming blir mindre temperaturforskjell mellom ekvator og polene. Mindre energiflyt mellom disse forårsaker naturligvis mindre ekstremvær , mens medier, politikere og akademiske ubetydeligheter står nå i kø for å selge denne naturkatastrofen som menneskeskapt. Fordi klima.
Tysklands innenriksminister Horst Seehofer sier at ekstremværet har sammenheng med klimaendringer, og Kanzlerin Merkel som ikke er på valg fornektet seg heller ikke. For politikerne dreier det seg nå enten om å fraskrive seg all skyld for de mange dødsfallene, eller det dreier seg om å bli gjenvalgt; først ved å vise handlekraft og senere ved å vinne årets tyske mesterskap i klimademagogi. Medier som Der Spiegel virker sikre på at nå blir klima en del av valgkampen. En troverdig journalist som Axel Bojanowski nøler ikke med å kritisere koblingen til klima.
Flommen i 2002 krevde 21 liv i Tyskland. Nå har det gått med innpå 200 liv der og det er fortsatt mange hundre savnede. 2002 bir garantert referanseåret som misbrukes som bevis – fordi klima. Øvrig statistikk fra figuren til venstre blir garantert utelatt.
Hva sier vitenskapen om flomskader? Det er ingen tvil om at flom har gjort mest skade før 1960, uansett om man regner i tapte liv eller økonomisk skade. Jfr. figuren til venstre, hentet fra flomstatistikk for Europa etter 1870, fra denne rapporten. Fra før vet vi at globale flomskader viser samme sterkt synkende trend over mere enn 100 år (jfr Bjørn Lomborg og Roger Pielke jr.).
Vannavrenning
Tradisjonelle tiltak mot flom inkluderer det å ikke bygge på lavtliggende flomsletter, drenering av elveløp for å gi plass til mere vann, samt å sørge for tilstrekkelig vannavrenning. Det har lenge vært påpekt både i Europa, Australia og i USA at drenering og utbygging av våtmarksområder har hindret avrenning. I en viss grad har man de siste årene prøvd å etablere på nytt tapte våtmarksområder langs elver som Oder og Missisippi.
Men i Australia har klimatroende politikere ikke bare bebygd flomslettene, men brukt milliarder på nye avsaltingsanlegg for vann, fordi det ville bli for lite nedbør til å dekke landets vannbehov. Og fordi klima. Men straks det nye og rådyre drikkevannet var tilgjengelig, så skiftet det kjente sykliske værmønsteret over til våt fase, med breddfulle reservoarer og tallrike døde når vannet rant utover elveslettene.
Med økende urbanisering og mer asfalt med flere bekker lagt i rør i Tyskland som i Norge er vannavrenning viktig, men i begge land ignorerer politikere og forvaltning dette. Se denne påpekningen for Norge fra 2019, av Dr. Kjell Stordahl. Med et normalt nedbørsmønster vil ca 1/3 av nedbøren fordampe, mens 2/3 krever tilstrekkelig avrenning for å unngå flom. Siden unormal nedbør er normal nedbør akkurat som unormalt vær er det normale, vil flom være noe som alltid kan forekomme. Forsvarlig avrenning reduserer flomskader av alle typer.
Her er det altså tyske politikere som har skylden for at så mange liv har gått tapt. De skylder i stedet på klima, men i sin tilstand av total frakobling fra alle fysiske klimarealiteter greier hverken media eller politiere å skylde på riktig «klimagass».
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