13. June 2026
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Klimaendring. Wikipedia

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 https://no.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimaendring

Klimaendring

Denne artikkelen handler mest om fortidens klimaendringer. Klimaendringer kan også referere til global oppvarming som er endringer forårsaket av menneskelige påvirkninger.

Klimaendringer er forandringer i den statistiske fordelingen av værmønstre når denne forandringen varer i en lengre periode, det vil si fra noen tiår til millioner av år. Endringene kan henvise til forandringer i gjennomsnittlige værforhold, eller en tidsvariasjon av vær rundt langsiktige gjennomsnittsforhold, for eksempel flere eller færre ekstremværhendelser. Klimaendringene er forårsaket av faktorer som biotiske prosesser, variasjoner i solinnstråling mot jorden, platetektonikk, og vulkanutbrudd. Menneskelige aktiviteter har også blitt identifisert som viktige årsaker til det siste århundrets klimaendringer, ofte referert til som global oppvarming. Dette har sin årsak i utslipp av klimagasser som karbondioksid fra forbrenning av fossilt brensel.

Forskjellige faktorer som gir klimaendringer.

Foto: William Crochot

Vitenskapelige undersøkelser har blitt gjort for å forstå fortiden og fremtidens klima ved hjelp av observasjoner og teoretiske modeller. Klimamålinger strekker seg langt tilbake i jordens fortid, og har blitt bygget opp basert på geologiske bevis fra borehull, temperaturprofiler basert på iskjerneprøver, observasjoner av flora og fauna, glasiale og periglasiale prosesser, isotopanalyser og andre analyser av sedimentlag, og registreringer av fortidens havnivå. Nyere data er skaffet tilveie ved instrumentelle målinger. Globale klimamodeller basert på geofysikk, brukes ofte i teoretiske tilnærminger for å sammenligne med fortidens klimadata, og gjøre prognoser for fremtidige endringer. Dessuten brukes modellene for å finne sammenheng mellom årsaker og virkninger i klimaendringene.

Den mest generelle definisjonen av klimaendringer er at det er snakk om endringer i statistiske egenskaper, hovedsakelig gjennomsnitt og standardavvik,[1] for klimasystemet når det betraktes over lang tid og uansett årsak.[2] Følgelig vil svingninger over perioder kortere enn noen tiår, som for eksempel forårsaket av El Niño, ikke representerer klimaendringer.

Begrepet brukes noen ganger til å referere spesifikt til klimaendringer forårsaket av menneskelig aktivitet, i motsetning til klimaendringer som har sin årsak i naturlige prosesser.[3] I denne forstand, og spesielt i sammenheng med miljøpolitikk, har begrepet klimaendringer blitt synonymt med antropogen global oppvarming. I vitenskapelige tidsskrifter refererer global oppvarming til temperaturøkninger på jordoverflaten, mens klimaendringer omfatter global oppvarming og alt annet som blir påvirket av øker nivået av klimagasser.[4]

På norsk brukes ofte ordet «klimaendring» for å beskrive forskjellen i klimaet på lengre sikt, mens «klimavariasjoner» betegner korte tidsskalaer.[5]

Et beslektet begrep er «klimatisk endring» som ble foreslått av 1966 World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Begrepet «klimatisk endring» skulle omfatte alle former for klimavariabilitet på tidsskalaer lenger enn ti år, uavhengig av årsak. «Endring» var gitt og «klimatisk» ble anvendt som et adjektiv for å beskrive en slik endring (i motsetning til politisk eller økonomisk endring). Når det så ble innsett at menneskelig aktivitet hadde et potensial til drastisk å kunne endre klimaet, ble begrepet «klimaendring» erstattet av «klimatisk endring» som det dominerende uttrykket for å reflektere en menneskeskapt årsak. Klimaendringene ble innlemmet i tittelen på FNs klimapanel (IPCC) og FNs rammekonvensjon om klimaendring (UNFCCC). «Klimaendringer», brukt som et substantiv, ble et problem i stedet for teknisk beskrivelse av skiftende vær.[6]

Årsaker

Jordens klima har alltid vært under endring. Det er, og har vært, flere fysiske årsaker til dette, kjent som klimapådriv, og oftest har det vært flere mekanismer som virker samtidig. Disse kan gjerne virke mot hverandre, eller de virker i samme retning, slik at de forsterker den samlede virkningen. Dermed blir klimaet en kombinasjon av en forutsigbar respons på en påvirkning og uforutsigbare innslag av ulike årsaker av en ikke-lineær, kaotisk karakter. Klimavariasjoner og klimapådrag kan deles inn i forskjellige kategorier, for eksempel naturlige- og menneskeskapte. Disse virker gjerne samtidig.[7] Et eksempel på et klimapådriv er intensiteten av solstrålingen eller klimagassers påvirkning av jordens strålingsbalanse, kjent som strålingspådriv.

Mange mekanismer for klimapådriv

Utdypende artikkel: Klimapådriv

På en bred skala er hastigheten som energi blir mottatt fra solen til jorden og hastigheten som den tapes til verdensrommet, bestemmende for likevektstemperaturen og klimaet på jorden. Denne energien blir fordelt rundt om på kloden av vind, havstrømmer og andre mekanismer som påvirker klimaet i ulike regioner.

Faktorer som kan forme klimaet kalles klimapådriv eller mekanismer for pådriv.[8] Disse består av prosesser som variasjoner i solstråling, variasjoner i jordens bane, variasjoner i albedo eller refleksjon forårsaket av landjorden, atmosfære og hav, videre kan fjellkjedefolding spille en rolle, samt kontinentaldrift, i tillegg til endringer i konsentrasjon av klimagasser. Om pådrivet skyldes endringer av jordens strålingsbalanse kalles dette for strålingspådriv. Det finnes en rekke tilbakekoblinger i klimasystemet som enten kan forsterke eller redusere det innledende pådrivet. Noen deler av klimasystemet slik som hav og iskapper, responderer sakte på klimapådriv, mens andre reagere raskere. Det er også økologisk terskler som om de overskrides kan gi raske endringer.

Tilbakekoblingsmekanismer kan være enten intern eller ytre. Interne pådriv er naturlige prosesser i klimasystemet i seg selv, som for eksempel den termohaline sirkulasjonen. Eksterne pådriv kan være enten naturlig, det være seg endringer i innstrålingen av solenergi, jordens bane, vulkanutbrudd, eller menneskeskapte som økte utslipp av klimagasser og støv.

Om den første mekanismen for pådriv er intern eller ekstern, kan responsen til klimasystemet være rask. For eksempel en plutselig avkjøling på grunn av luftbåret vulkansk aske som reflektere sollys vil være rask, men for eksempel termisk ekspansjon på grunn av oppvarming av havvann vil være langsom. Pådriv kan også være en kombinasjon, som for eksempel en plutselig tap av albedo i Nordishavet på grunn av smeltet sjøis, etterfulgt av mer gradvis termisk ekspansjon av vannet. Derfor kan klimasystemet respondere brått, men full respons på grunn av pådriv vil kanskje ikke bli fullt utviklet før det går flere hundre år eller enda lenger tid.

Interne mekanismer for pådriv

Forskere definerer generelt de fem komponentene i jordens klimasystem til å omfatte atmosfæren, hydrosfæren, kryosfæren, litosfæren (begrenset til overflatejord, bergarter og sedimenter), og biosfæren.[9] Naturlige endringer i klimasystemet (indre pådriv) resultere i interne klimavariasjoner.[10] Eksempler er endret artsutbredelse og endringer i sirkulasjonen mellom hav og atmosfære.

Variasjoner mellom hav og atmosfære

Den tiårige svingingen i Stillehavet 1925-2010.

Havet og atmosfæren kan arbeide sammen slik at det spontant gir interne klimavariasjoner som kan vedvare i mange år til tiår av gangen.[11][12] Eksempler på denne type variasjoner er El Niño, den den tiårige svingingen i Stillehavet og den atlantiske multidekadiske svingningen. Disse variasjonene kan påvirke den globale gjennomsnittlige overflatetemperaturen ved å omfordele varme mellom dyphavet og atmosfæren[13][14] og/eller å endre forholdet mellom skyder, vanndamp og havis, noe som kan påvirke det totale energibudsjett på jorden.[15][16]

Disse sirkulasjonene kan generere variasjon på tidsskalaer på hundrevis av år på grunn av at havet har en masse som er flere hundrer ganger større enn atmosfæren, i tillegg til høy termisk treghet. For eksempel vil endringer i havets prosesser som den termohaline sirkulasjonen spille en nøkkelrolle i å omfordele varmen i verdenshavene. På grunn av lange tidsskalaer for denne sirkulasjonen er havtemperaturen i dypet fremdeles under påvirkning av den lille istid,[17] som skjedde mellom 1600 og 1800.

En skjematisk av den termohaline sirkulasjonen. For flere titalls millioner av år siden dannet kontinentalplate bevegelsen et land fritt gap rundt Antarktis, slik at sørishavsstrømmen oppstod og som holder det varme vannet bort fra Antarktis.

Livet på jorden

Livet på jorden påvirker klimaet gjennom karbon- og vannets kretsløp, samt gjennom mekanismer som albedo, evapotranspirasjon, skydannelse og forvitring.[18][19][20] Eksempler på hvordan livet kan ha påvirket fortidens klima er:

Eksterne mekanismer for pådriv

Milanković-syklusene 800 000 år bakover i tid og 800 000 år fromover
Variasjoner i innhold av CO2, temperatur og støv fra iskjerneprøver fra Vostok i løpet av de siste 450 000 årene.

Banevariasjoner

Utdypende artikkel: Milanković-syklusene

Svake variasjoner i jordens bane vil føre til endringer i den sesongmessige fordelingen av sollys som når jordoverflaten, og hvordan lyset blir fordelt over kloden. Det er svært lite endring i arealgjennomsnittet for registrert årlig gjennomsnittlig solstråling, men det kan være sterke endringer med hensyn på fordelingen rent geografisk og sesongmessig. De tre typer banevariasjoner er variasjoner i jordens eksentrisitet, endringer i hellingsvinkelen til jordens rotasjonsakse og presesjon av jordens akse. Disse variasjonene satt sammen gir Milanković-syklusene som har en stor innvirkning på jordens klima, blant annet tilskrives de korrelasjon til istidene og mellomistider,[31] med utbredelse og tilbaketrekkingen av Sahara,[31] og utseende til geologisk lagoppbygging.[32][33]

FNs klimapanel (IPCC) beskriver at Milanković-syklusene har drevet istidsyklusene, innholdet av CO2 etterfulgt av temperaturendringer «med et etterslep på noen hundre år,» dette som en tilbakekobling til forsterket temperaturendring.[34] Havdypet har en forsinkelsestid for endret temperatur på grunn av stor termisk treghet. På grunn av temperaturforandring i sjøvann, endres oppløseligheten av CO2 i havet, samt andre faktorer som påvirker utveksling av CO2 mellom luft og sjø.[35]

Solens strålingspådriv

Variasjoner i solaktivitet i løpet av de siste århundrene basert på observasjoner av solflekksyklusen og berylliumisotoper. Perioden med usedvanlig få solflekker på slutten av 1600-tallet er kjent som Maunder minimum.

Solen er den dominerende kilden til energi overført til Jorden. Andre kilder er geotermisk energi fra jordens kjerne, og varmen fra nedbrytning av radioaktive forbindelser. Både lange og kortsiktige variasjoner i solens intensitet er kjent for å påvirke det globale klimaet.

For tre til fire milliarder år siden slapp solen ut bare 70 % så mye stråling som det gjør i dag. Hvis atmosfæresammensetningen hadde vært den samme som i dag, skulle ikke flytende vann ha eksistert på jorden. Imidlertid finnes det bevis for tilstedeværelse av vann på jorden i tidlige stadier, i hadeikum[36][37] og arkeikum,[38][36] noe som leder mot det såkalte Svak-ung-sol-paradokset.[39] Hypotetiske forklaringer på dette paradokset er at det har eksistert en helt annerledes atmosfære, med mye høyere konsentrasjoner av drivhusgasser enn det som eksisterer i dag.[40] Over de neste om lag 4 milliard år har energiutstrålingen fra solen økt og atmosfærens sammensetning har blitt endret. Den såkalte oksygenkatastrofen, altså at det oppstod stor konsentrasjon av oksygen i atmosfæren for rundt 2,4 milliarder år siden, var den mest bemerkelsesverdige endring som inntraff. I løpet av de neste 5 milliarder år vil solens endelige død inntreffe ved at den blir en rød kjempe, for deretter å bli en hvit dverg, noe som vil ha stor innvirkning på klimaet. Fasen som rød gigant vil muligens avslutte alt liv på jorden som skulle ha overlevd til den tid.

Solens energiproduksjon har også variasjoner på kortere tidsskalaer, som den elleveårlige solsyklusen[41] og modulasjoner med lengre varighet.[42] Solens intensitetsvariasjoner kan muligens tilskrives Wolf-, Spörer– og Maunder minimum og anses for å ha hatt påvirkninger som har utløse den lille istid,[43] og noen av oppvarmingen på jorden som er observert fra 1900 til 1950. Den sykliske naturen til solens energiproduksjon er ennå ikke fullt ut forstått, endringen er svært langsomme og endrer seg etter som solen blir eldre. Forskning viser at variasjoner i solenergien har hatt effekter på jordens klima som Maunder-minimum i årene 1645-1715, deler av den lille istid 1550-1850 som var preget av relativ kjøling vær og større utbredelse av isbreer enn århundrene før og etter.[44][45] Noen studier peker mot solstrålingen øker ved syklisk solflekkaktivitet som igjen påvirker den globale oppvarmingen. Dermed kan klimaet bli påvirket av summen av alle effekter (variasjoner i solaktiviteten, menneskeskapt strålingspådriv, samt andre faktorer).[44][46]

En studie fra 2010 antyder «at effekten av solens variasjoner på temperaturen i hele atmosfæren kan være i strid med gjeldende forventninger».[47]

I en pressemelding i august 2011 annonserte CERN utgivelsen i Nature av de første resultatene fra sin CLOUD-eksperiment. [48]

Resultatene indikerer at ionisering av kosmisk stråling i betydelig grad forsterker aerosoldannelse i nærvær av svovelsyre og vann, men i den nedre atmosfære hvor ammoniakk også er nødvendig er dette allikevel ikke tilstrekkelig til å gjøre rede for aerosoldannelse, og ytterligere stoffer må derfor være involvert. Det neste trinnet er å finne ut mer om disse stoffene, for eksempel om de er av naturlig eller har opprinnelse fra menneskelig aktivitet.

Vulkansk påvirkning

Atmosfærisk temperatur i årene 1979-2010 målt ved satellitter med mikrobølgedeteksjon drevet av NASA. Grafene viser temperaturpåvirkning av aerosoler i atmosfæren etter store vulkanutbrudd (El Chichón og Pinatubo). Her er El Niño en separat hendelse med utspring i havstrømninger.

Vulkanutbrudd anses å være store nok til å påvirke jordens klima på en tidsskala på mer enn ett år, om de injiserer mer enn 100 000 tonn med SO2 i stratosfæren.[49] Dette skyldes de optiske egenskapene til SO2 og sulfataerosoler som sterkt absorberer eller sprer solstråling, noe som skaper et globalt lag av svovelsyredis.[50] I gjennomsnitt vil slike utbrudd forekommer flere ganger per århundre, og føre til avkjøling ved delvis å blokkere innstråling av sollys til jordoverflaten. Varigheten av dette kan være noen år. Utbruddet av Pinatubo i 1991, som var det nest største utbruddet på 1900-tallet, påvirket klimaet betydelig slik at den globale temperaturen sank med 0,5 °C i opptil tre år.[51][52] Dermed oppstod en nedkjøling over store deler av jorden med redusert overflatetemperaturer i 1991-1993. Dette tilsvarende en reduksjon i netto solinstråling på 4 watt per kvadratmeter.[53] Utbruddet av Tambora i 1815 forårsaket det såkalte året uten sommer.[54] Mye større utbrudd enn dette, kjent som supervulkaner, kan ha forekommet noen få ganger med 50-100 millioner års mellomrom. Disse kan i jordens fortid ha forårsaket global oppvarming og masseutryddelser.[55]

Små utbrudd med injeksjoner av mindre enn 0,1 Mt svoveldioksid i stratosfæren påvirker atmosfæren bare i begrenset grad, ettersom temperaturendringene som oppstår uansett er sammenlignbare med naturlig variasjoner. Men fordi mindre utbrudd skjer med mye større hyppighet har de allikevel en betydelig innvirkning på jordens atmosfære.[49][56]

Seismisk overvåking har til hensikt å kartlegge nåværende og fremtidige trender i vulkansk aktivitet, og en forsøker å utvikle varslingssystemer. I klimamodellene prøver en å studere de fysiske mekanismer og tilbakekoblingsmekanismer av vulkansk pådriv.[57]

Vulkaner er også en del av den utvidede karbonkretsløpet. Dette kretsløpet har svært lang (geologisk) tidsperiode, der vulkansk aktivitet fører til utslipp av karbondioksid fra jordskorpen og mantelen, samt at kretsløpet motvirker opptak av sedimentære bergarter og andre geologiske karbondioksidsluk. US Geological Surveys anslag er at vulkanske utslipp er på et mye lavere nivå enn virkningene av dagens menneskelige aktiviteter som genererer 100-300 ganger så mye karbondioksid som det som slippes ut av vulkaner.[58] En gjennomgang av publiserte studier viser at årlige vulkanske utslipp av karbondioksid, inkludert bidrag fra midthavsryggene, vulkanske øybuer, og enkelt vulkaner, bare tilsvarer tre til fem dager av de menneskeskapte utslippene. Den årlige mengden på grunn av menneskelig aktivitet kan være større enn mengden fra selv utslipp fra en supervulkan, den siste av disse var Tobautbruddet i Indonesia for 74 000 år siden.[59] FNs klimapanel definerer eksplisitt vulkanisme som et ekstern påtrykk mot klimasystemet.[60]

Platetektonikk

Utdypende artikkel: Platetektonikk

Animasjon som viser kontinentaldrift de siste 150 millioner år.

I løpet av millioner av år beveger de tektoniske plater seg, noe som fører til rekonfigurering av globale land- og havområder, samt at det skaper jordens topografi. Dette kan påvirke både globale og lokale mønstre i klima og atmosfære-havsirkulasjon.[61]

Plasseringen av kontinentene bestemmer formen til havene og påvirker derfor mønstrene for havsirkulasjonen. Plasseringen av hav på jordkulen er viktige for omfanget av overføring av varme og fuktighet over hele verden, og vil derfor bestemme det globale klimaet. Et nylig eksempel på tektonisk innvirkning på havsirkulasjonen er dannelsen av Panamaeidet for cirka 5 millioner år siden, som direkte førte til stopp i utveksling av vann mellom Atlanterhavet og Stillehavet. Dette fikk sterkt innvirkning på havets dynamikk med Golfstrømmen som konsekvens, og kan ha ført til at den nordlige halvkule har et isdekke.[62][63] Under karbon for cirka 300 til 360 millioner år siden kan platetektonikk ha utløst storstilt lagring av karbon og økt dannelsen av breedannelse.[64] De geologiske bevisene peker mot et «megamonsunt-sirkulasjonsmønster» som varte i perioden der superkontinentet Pangea eksisterte, og klimamodellering tyder på at eksistensen av superkontinentet bidro til etablering av monsunvinder.[65]

Størrelsen på kontinentene er også viktig for klimaet. På grunn av den stabiliserende virkning som havene har på temperaturen, er de årlige temperaturvariasjoner generelt lavere i kystområder enn de er i innlandet. Et større superkontinent vil derfor ha større område der klimaet er sterkt sesongstyrt, enn om det var flere mindre kontinenter eller øyer.

Kometer

Et kometnedslag på jorden av en komet på enn 1 km i diameter vil kunne gjøre stor skade for livet på jorden. I aller første omgang på grunn av glødende partikler fra kometen som slynges inn i atmosfæren. På grunn av dette vil store branner oppstå på landjorden, i neste omgang vil jordens atmosfære bli fylt av tykt støv, som stenger mye av sollyset ute. Resultatet vil bli mye som en atomvinter, med en måned uten sollys og lave temperaturer. Etterpå vil det oppstå store endringer av atmosfæren som vil gi svært endrede klimaforhold i meget lang tid. Blant annet på grunn av skader på ozonlaget, frigjøring av store mengder svovelholdig støv, samt dannelse av nitrogen- og karbonoksid. Større kometer vil gjøre enda større skader. Forskere er uenig om det var en komet eller asteroide som traff jorden for 65 millioner år siden, utryddet dinosaurene og andre livsformer, blant annet på grunn av klimaendring.[66] Kometnedslag hendte mye hyppigere i jordens tidligere tider, og er mer usannsynlig nå.

Menneskelig påvirkninger

Utdypende artikkel: Global oppvarming

Økning i atmosfærisk CO2-innhold siden 1958.

Menneskelige aktiviteter som påvirker klimaet blir kalt antropogene faktorer. Den vitenskapelige konsensus om klimaendringer er «at klimaet endrer seg, og at disse endringene i stor grad er forårsaket av menneskelig aktivitet,»[67][68] og at de «i stor grad er irreversible».[69]

Laquote.svgVitenskapen har gjort enorme fremskritt med å forstå klimaendringene og deres årsaker, og begynner å bidra til å utvikle en sterk forståelse av nåværende og potensielle konsekvenser som vil påvirke mennesker i dag og i de kommende tiår. Denne forståelsen er viktig fordi det gir beslutningstakere mulighet til å plassere klimaendringene i sammenheng med andre store utfordringer nasjonalt og verden. Det er fortsatt noe usikkerhet, og det vil det alltid være med å forstå et komplekst system som jordens klima. Likevel er det en sterk og troverdig mengde bevis, basert på flere angrepsvinkler innenfor forskningen som dokumenterer at klimaet er i endring, og at disse endringene i stor grad er forårsaket av menneskelig aktivitet. Selv om mye gjenstår å bli forstått, har kjernen av fenomet, vitenskapelige spørsmål, og hypoteser blitt undersøkt grundig, og har stått fast i møte med seriøs vitenskapelig debatt og omfattende vurdering av alternative forklaringerRaquote.svg

. United States National Research Council, Advancing Science of Climate Change

Den størst bekymringen knyttet til de antropogene faktorene er økningen i CO2-nivået. Økningen er et resultat av utslipp fra forbrenning av fossilt materiale, og i mindre grad av aerosoler (partikler i atmosfæren) og CO2-utslipp ved sementproduksjon. Andre faktorer som endret arealbruk, ozonhull, husdyrhold[70] og avskoging, har også betydning, både hver for seg og i samspill med andre faktorer.[71]

Fysiske bevis

Global temperatur anomalier for 2015 sammenlignet med 1951-1980 som baselinje. I 2015 var det varmeste året som noen gang er målt av NASA/NOAA med start i 1880. Det har siden blitt overgått av 2016.[72]

Sammenligninger mellom asiatiske Monsuner fra 200 f.Kr. til 2000 (plassert i bakgrunnen), temperatur på den nordlige halvkule, utbredelse av alpine isbreer, samt noen milepæler for menneskets historie. Kurvene er satt sammen av en amerikanske National Science Foundation.

Arktiske temperaturanomalier over en 100-års periode estimert av NASA. Typisk høye månedlige variasjoner kan sees, mens langsiktige gjennomsnittlige trender er markert med linjer.

Klimaendringene er kartlagt ved en sammenstilling av mange ulike kilder som kan brukes til å rekonstruere tidligere tiders klima. Jordens overflatetemperatur er målt siden 1700-tallet, med et tilstrekkelig omfattende målenett til å kunne angi et globalt middel siden av 1800-tallet. For tidligere perioder er de fleste av bevisene indirekte klimatiske endringer som utledes fra endringer i klimaproxy, indikatorer som gjenspeiler klima, for eksempel sedimentkjerner, iskjerner,[73] dendrokronologi, havnivåendring og glasiologi.

Temperaturmålinger og proxy

De instrumentelle måleseriene fra værstasjoner på bakken ble supplert med et globalt nett av radiosondestasjoner fra midten av 1900-tallet, og fra 1970-tallet med globale satellittdata. Forholdstallet mellom 18O og 16O i kalsitt og iskjerneprøver benyttes for å utlede havtemperaturen i fjern fortid. Dette har igjen sammenheng med oksygenisotop-forholdssykluser og er et eksempel på en metode for temperaturproxy.

Historiske og arkeologiske bevis

Klimaendringer i fortiden kan oppdages ved tilsvarende endringer i bosetning og landbruksmønstre.[74] Arkeologiske bevis, muntlige overleveringer og historiske dokumenter kan gi innsikt i endringer i klimaet. Blant annet har historiske klimaendringer har vært knyttet til sammenbruddet av ulike sivilisasjoner.[74]

Isbreer

Tykkelsen av verdens isbreer har i gjennomsnitt gått ned de siste 50 årene.

Isbreer regnes blant de mest følsomme indikatorer på klimaendringer.[75] Størrelsen av breene bestemmes av en massebalanse mellom tilvekst ved snø og avgang ved smelting. Med høyere temperaturer vil isbreer trekke seg tilbake med mindre nedbørøkningen i form av snø er like stor som den ekstra smeltingen. Det motsatte er også tilfelle.

Vekst og tilbaketrekning av breer skyldes både naturlige endringer og ytre påvirkninger. Variasjon i temperatur, nedbør, englasial- og subglasial hydrologi kan påvirke utviklingen av en isbre kraftig i en bestemt sesong. For at isbreers utbredelse skal knyttes til klimaet må det lages et gjennomsnitt på et tiår eller enda lengre tid, og/eller at forholdene undersøkes på mange individuelle isbreer. Dette fordi en må jevne ut den lokale kortvarige variasjonen.

Kartlegging av alle verdens isbreer har blitt gjort siden 1970-årene, i første omgang i hovedsak basert på flyfoto og kart, men nå kan en stole mer på satellitter. Denne oversikten inneholder mer enn 100 000 isbreer som tilsammen dekker et areal på cirka 240 000 km², og foreløpige beregninger viser at den gjenværende isdekket er rundt 445 000 km². The World Glacier Monitoring Service samler inn data årlig for isbresmelting og breenes massebalanse. Fra disse dataene kan en se at isbreer over hele verden har krympet betydelig, med kraftig tilbaketrekning i 1940-årene, stabil tilstand eller vekst i 1920-årene og senere i 1970-årene, men at de igjen begynte å trekke seg tilbake fra midten av 1980-årene fram til i dag.[76]

Istider

De største klimaendringene som har skjedd siden slutten av pliocen, for cirka 3 millioner år siden, er syklene av istider og mellomistider. Den nåværende perioden med mellomistid (holocen) har vart i cirka 11 700 år[77] Endringene er et resultat av jordens banevariasjoner, endringer av utbredelsen av innlandsis, i samspill med betydelige havnivåendringer. Plutselige endringer som i yngre dryas, illustrerer hvordan glasiale variasjoner også kan påvirke klimaet uten at jordbanen er årsaken.

Snøballteorien er en hypotese om at jorden fire ganger før kambrium, det vil si for mer enn 542 millioner år siden, har vært fullstendig dekket av is. På engelsk brukes betegnelsen snøballjorden (Snowball Earth). Noe som bygger opp om teorien er funn i morenebergarter (tillitt). En mener at i disse periodene har eneste liv på jorden vært spesielle miljøer under isen på havbunnen og ved vulkaner. Mellom periodene har øvrige livsformer utdød.[78]

Forskerne er imidlertid enige om at det i jorden har opplved mange istider, der store regioner har vært dekket av tykke iskapper. Mellom disse periodene med global nedkjøling har det vært mellomistider. Overgangen mellom disse er sykliske, men med variable tider mellom endringene.

Kjente istider

Tidslinje for istider vist i blått.

Det har vært minst fem store istider i jordens historie, disse er kjent som Huronistiden, Kryogenium, Andes-Sahara-istiden, Karooistiden, og den siste kvartæristiden. Mellom disse epokene synes jorden å ha vært isfri selv på høye breddegrader.[79][80][81]

Isalderkart over Nord-Tyskland og dets nordlige naboer. Rød: Maksimumgrense for Weichselian iskall; gul: Saale isbre på maksimum (Drenthe scenen); blå: Elster iskall maksimal isbreeding.

Huronistiden

Huronistiden var en periode for rundt 2,4 til 2,1 milliarder år siden i den tidlige fasen av proterozoikum. Nord og nordøst for Lake Huron, som strekker seg fra Sault Ste, er en flere hundre kilometer lang geologisk formasjon kalt Huronian Supergroup. Lignende beviser for denne istiden er paleoproterozoiske islagsavsetninger i Michigan og Vest-Australia. Denne istiden kan ha vært forårsaket av reduksjon av atmosfærisk metan, en klimagass, under oksygenkatastrofen.[82][81] En annen teori er at global nedkjøling startet på grunn av en 250 millioner år lang periode uten vulkansk aktivitet. Dette ga redusert nivå av CO2 i atmosfæren, og dermed redusert drivhuseffekt.[83]

Kryogenium

Den neste veldokumenterte istiden, Kryogenium, var sannsynligvis den alvorligste de siste milliarder årene og skjedde fra 720 til 630 millioner år siden. Denne kan ha formet en såkalt snøballjord hvor isbreer fra polene strakk seg helt ned til ekvator,[84] En hypotese er at istiden startet på grunn av dannelse av liv i form av organiser med én, eller muligens flere celler. Da disse døde la de seg på sjøbunnen og forårsaket reduksjon av CO2 i atmosfæren, noe som reduserte drivhuseffekten og ga nedkjøing.[83] Epoken ble muligens avsluttet ved akkumulering av klimagasser, som for eksempel CO2 produsert av vulkaner. Tilstedeværelsen av is på kontinentene og pakkis på havene vil hemme både forvitring av silikat og fotosyntese, som er de to store kilder for opptak av CO2 i den epoken jorden er inne i nå.[85] Dannelse av klimagasser skapte dermed en drivhuseffekt som avsluttet istiden.[81] Det har blitt foreslått at slutten av denne istiden var ansvarlig for den etterfølgende Ediacara og den kambriske eksplosjon, selv om denne modellen er ny og kontroversiell.

Andes-Sahara-istiden

Andean-Sahara-istiden for 460 til 420 millioner år siden, i periodene fra tidlig ordovicium og silur. Beviser for denne perioden er geologiske prøver fra fjellkjeden Tassili n’Ajjer i den vestlige delen av Sahara, derav navnet på istiden. Det finnes også korrelerte geologiske prøver fra Andesfjellene i Sør-Amerika og andre steder.[81]

Data fra sedimentprøver viser de fluktuerende sekvenser av isbreer og mellomistide i løpet de siste millioner år.

Karooistiden

Utviklingen av planteliv på landjord skjedde ved starten av devon og førte til en langvarig økning i oksygen-nivået og reduksjon av CO2-konsentrasjonen i atmosfæren. Dette resulterte i en global nedkjøling og neste istid, kjent som Karooistiden, for mellom 360 og 260 millioner år siden. Beviser for at denne istiden fant sted er sedimenter i regionen Karoo i Sør-Afrika, med korrelerte funn i Argentina.[86][81] Det finnes noen beviser for at det i denne perioden var istider som kom og gikk.[83]

Pleistocene- og kvartær-istidene

Kvartær startet for 2,58 millioner år siden, og det var i denne periode at dannelsen isbreer på den nordlige halvkule begynte. Disse istidene er kjent som pleistocene- og kvartær-istidene. Siden da har jorden gjennomløpt sykluser av istider med isbreer som strakte seg ut, og trakk seg tilbake med tidsskalaer på 40 000 og 100 000 år. Disse kalles istider og mellomistider. Jorden er for tiden i en mellomistid, der den siste istiden ble avsluttet for rundt 10 000 år siden. Alt som er igjen av de store kontinentale isbreene er Grønlandsisen, isen over Antarktis og mindre isbreer, som på Baffin Island.[81][87]

Definisjonen på kvartær-istiden er dannelsen av den arktiske iskappe. Den antarktiske innlandsisen begynte sin dannelse tidligere, for om lag 34 millioner år siden, i midten av kenozoikum. Begrepet kenozoiske istid brukes for å inkludere denne tidlige fasen.[88]

Paleoklimatologene mener at det for 110 000 og 15 000 år siden var flere perioder med nedkjøling og oppvarming på den nordlige halvkule. Disse hendelsene kalles Dansgaard-Oeschger-hendelser, oppkalt etter Willi Dansgaard og Hans Oeschger. Kunnskapen om dette har en fra iskjerneprøver fra Grønlandsisen samt sedimentprøver fra Atlanterhavet. Karakteristisk for disse hendelsene er at en oppvarming på 10 °C skjer over noen tiår, etterfulgt av et årtusen med gradvis redusert temperatur.[89] Samtidig med oppvarming på den nordlige halvkule skjedde en nedkjøling på den sørlige, mens det motsatte inntraff ved nedkjøling på den nordlige halvkule.[90]

Den norske klimaforskeren Morten Hald har sammen med kolleger gjort undersøkelser av fortidens klima basert på sedimenter i Andforden i Troms. Ut fra dette har en funnet at temperaturen om sommeren for rundt 13 000 år siden var på cirka 8 °C, noe lavere enn i dag. På denne tiden var den siste istiden på hell. Mye av isdekket over dagens Skandinavia smeltet, således var fjordene og kysten isfrie. Resten av Europa hadde temperaturer som i dag. Så kom det en nedkjøling for rundt 12 800 år siden, med temperaturer ved havnivå ved Andfjorden på rundt 3 °C. Dette førte til at innlandsisen igjen vokste. Enda en gang kom en oppvarming for rundt 11 800 år siden, da temperaturen økte til 10 °C på kort tid. Nye sterke variasjoner fulgte de neste 300 årene, der temperaturen varierte i intervallet 2–10 °C. For cirka 11 500 år siden stabiliserte klimaet seg, og disse ustabilitetene opphørte.[89]

Isbreer etterlater morener som inneholder et vell av materiale, blant annet organisk materiale, kvarts og kalium som kan brukes for å datere periodene der en isbre vokste og trakk seg tilbake. Tilsvarende kan tefrokronologi brukes til å analyser områder der breen har trukket seg tilbake. Her kan tilstedeværelse av jord eller vulkansk tefra benyttes for å fastslå årstall for når denne deponeringen inntraff.

Tap av den arktisk havisen

Reduksjonen av den arktiske havisen i omfang og tykkelse i løpet av de siste tiårene er ytterligere bevis for raske klimaendringer.[91] Havis er frosset havvann som flyter på havoverflaten. Den dekker millioner av km² i polområdene. Utbredelsen varierer med årstidene. I Arktis vil noe av sjøisen bli igjen hvert eneste år, mens nesten all sjøis i Sørishavet smelter bort og dannes på nytt hvert år. Satellittobservasjoner viser at havisen i Arktis nå er avtagende med en hastighet på 13,3 % per tiår, i forhold til gjennomsnittet i årene 1981-2010.[92]

Vegetasjonen

Denne filmen oppsummerer hvordan klimaendringene og økte karbondioksidnivåer i atmosfæren har påvirket planteveksten.

Endring av type, fordeling og dekning av vegetasjon kan oppstå på grunn en endring i klimaet. Noen endringer i klima kan føre til økt nedbør og varme, noe som resulterer i økt plantevekst og påfølgende lagring av luftbåren CO2. En gradvis økning av temperaturen i en region vil føre til tidligere blomstring og modning, noe som gir en endring i livssyklusene for andre organismer. Motsatt vil kaldere klima føre til at plantenes sykluser henge etter.[93] Større, raskere eller mer radikale endringer, kan imidlertid under visse omstendigheter føre til stress på vegetasjon, rask plante tap og forørkning.[94][95] Et eksempel på dette skjedde under kollapset av regnskogen i karbon, en utrydding som skjedde for 300 millioner år siden. På denne tiden dekket store regnskoger ekvatorregionene i Europa og Amerika. Klimaendringene ødela disse tropiske regnskogene, det oppstod en fragmentering av habitatene i isolerte «øyer» og forårsaket utryddelse av mange plante- og dyrearter.[94]

Selv om dette er et felt med mange usikkerheter, er det forventet at i løpet av de neste 50 årene vil klimaendringene få innvirkning på mangfoldet av arter av trær, dermed vil det kunne skje en endring av fordelingen av treslag og sammensetningen av skog. Mangfold av skogens artsressurser gjør at potensialet for en art (eller en populasjon) til å tilpasse seg klimaendringer, samt fremtidige utfordringer som temperaturendringer, tørke, skadedyr, sykdommer og skogbrann. Imidlertid er ikke artene naturlig i stand til å tilpasse seg tempoet som klimaet endrer seg med, dermed vil økende temperaturer mest sannsynlig legge til rette for spredning av skadedyr og sykdommer, noe som skaper en ekstra trussel mot tær og livsformene som har sitt tilholdssted her.[96] For å hindre disse problemene kan menneskelige inngrep avhjelpe utviklingen, for eksempel ved overføring av arter fra et sted til et annet.[97]

Pollenanalyse

Pollenanalyse er studiet av moderne og fossilt pollen og sporer. Dette brukes til å utlede den geografiske fordelingen av plantearter, som varierer under ulike klimaforhold. Forskjellige grupper av planter har pollen med karakteristiske former og overflatestrukturer, og siden den ytre overflate av pollen er sammensatt av et meget elastisk materiale, motstår de forråtnelse. Endringer i type av pollen som finnes i ulike lag av sedimenter i innsjøer, myrer, eller elvedeltaer indikerer endringer i plantesamfunn. Disse endringene er ofte et tegn på et klima i endring.[98][99] Som et eksempel har pollenanalyse blitt brukt til å spore endringer av vegetasjonsmønstre gjennom kvartære istider[100] og spesielt siden siste istids maksimum.[101]

Skydekke og nedbør

Øverst: Aridistidsklima
Midt: Atlantikum, varm og våt klima
Nederst: Potensiell vegetasjonsutbredelse i dagens klima uten menneskelig inngripen i form av landbruk.[102]

Fortidens nedbør kan estimeres i moderne tid på grunn av det globale nettverket av nedbørsmålere. Dekningen med målinger over hav og avsidesliggende områder er relativt sparsom, men ved å benytte interpolasjon, har satellitter gitt data for skyer og nedbør siden 1970-årene.[103] Kvantifisering av klimatisk variasjon av nedbør i tidligere århundrer og epoker er mindre komplett, men tilnærmes ved proksydata i form av marine sedimenter, iskjerner, stalagmitter fra huler og årringer fra trær.[104] I juli 2016 publiserte forskere tegn på økt skydekke i polarområdene,[105] som tidligere var forutsakt av klimamodellene.[106]

Klimatologiske temperaturer påvirker i vesentlig grad skydekke og nedbør. For eksempel i løpet av siste istids maksimum for 18 000 år siden, var den termisk-drevne fordampningen fra havene og inn på kontinentene lav, noe som forårsaker store områder med ekstrem ørken, også såkalt polarørkener (kalde områder, men med lite skydekke og nedbør).[102] I kontrast til dette, var verdens klima våtere og med mer skydekke enn i dag nær begynnelsen av den varme atlantikum-perioden for 8000 år siden.[102]

Estimert global nedbør over landområder har økt med cirka 2 % i løpet av 1900-tallet, selv om den beregnede trenden varierer om ulike tidsendepunkter velges. Beregningen er igjen kompliseres av El Niño-oscillasjonen. I tillegg kommer andre svingninger som større global nedbør over land i 1950 og 1970, enn det som kom senere 1980- og 1990-årene, til tross for den positive utviklingen i løpet av århundret samlet.[103][107][108] Dessuten er det obeservert en svak generell økning i global avrenning via elver, samt gjennomsnittlig jordfuktighet.[107]

Dendroklimatologi

Dendroklimatologi er analyse av vekstmønstre for årringer for å avgjøre tidligere klimavariasjoner.[109] Brede og tykke årringer indikerer en fruktbar, vannrik vekstperiode, mens tynne, smale ringer indikerer en tid med lavere nedbør og ikke ideelle vekstforhold for treet.

Iskjerneanalyser

Analyse av isen i en kjerne boret ut fra en innlandsis som den antarktiske innlandsisen, kan brukes til å vise en sammenheng mellom temperatur og globale havnivåvariasjoner. Luften som en gang ble fanget i bobler i isen kan også avsløre CO2-variasjoner i atmosfæren i en fjern fortid, lenge før moderne miljøpåvirkninger gjorde seg gjeldende. Studiet av disse iskjernene har påvist betydelige endringer i CO2-konsentrasjonen over mange årtusener, og fortsetter å gi verdifull informasjon om forskjellene mellom gamle og moderne atmosfæriske forhold.

Dyr

Rester av biller er vanlig i ferskvann og landsedimenter. Ulike arter av biller har tendens til å forekomme under forskjellige klimatiske betingelser. Gitt at billeartenes genetiske sammensetningen ikke har endret seg vesentlig de siste årtusener, kan kunnskap om nåværende klimatiske betingelser for utbredelsen av de ulike artene brukes. Forekomst og omfang av døde biller i sedimenter kan si noe om klimatiske forhold i fortiden.[110]

På samme måte har den store mengden av historiske fiskearter funnet å være en indikator for sammenheng med observerte klimatiske forhold.[111] Endringer i primærproduksjonen av autotrofie organismer i havet kan påvirke marine næringskjeder.[112]

Analyser av foraminifera i sedimentkjerner kan brukes på tilsvarende måte.[113]

Endret havnivå

Endring av globalt havnivå fra 1880 til 2013.

Global havnivåøkning i det siste århundret har blitt beregnet ved hjelp av tidevannsmålinger samlet inn over lang tid fra mange stasjoner. Nylig har høydemålinger i kombinasjon med nøyaktige satellittbaner gitt en forbedret måling av de globale havnivåendringene.[114] For å bestemme havnivået før det ble foretatt instrumentelle målinger har forskere datert korallrev som vokser nær overflaten av havet, kystnære sedimenter, marine terrasser, ooider i kalkstein, og landnære arkeologiske levninger. De dominerende dateringsmetoder som brukes er uranserier og karbondatering. Kosmogenisk radionuklidedatering blir noen ganger brukt til å datere terrasser som har gjennomgått et relativt fall av havnivået. På begynnelsen av pliocen var den globale temperaturen 1-2 °C varmere enn dagens temperaturer, men havnivået var 15-25 meter høyere enn i dag.[115]

Klimaendringer de siste 1000 år

Rekonstruksjon av temperaturen på den nordlige halvkule de siste tusen år er basert på proksydata bestående av årringsanalyser, iskjerneprøver, sedimentprøver, og historiske nedtegnelser. Det ser ut til at temperaturen har vært noe høyere mellom 1050 og 1330 enn fra 1400 til 1900. Spesielt viser nedtegnelser at det i Vest- og Sentral-Europa har vært spesielt varmt i tiden rundt 1300. Fra Island har en nedtegnelser som indikerer milde temperaturer opp til slutten av 1100-tallet. I denne perioden skjedde også vikingenes kolonisering av Grønland og inuitenes bosetning på Ellesmereøya i canadiske Arktis.[116]

The Frozen Thames. Islagt Themsen malt i 1677 av Abraham Hondius, ikke noe vanlig fenomen i moderne tid.

Harde vintre fulgte fra 1450 til 1700; den lille istid. I denne tidsperioden var det stor utbredelse av is i Arktisk og utbredelse av isbreer opp til et maksimum uten sidestykke siden istiden. Den kaldeste perioden av den lille istiden på den nordlige halvkule var fra årene 1570 til 1730.[116]

Analyser av temperaturer de siste 500 år tyder på fluktuasjoner over tre forskjellige tidsintervaller: En svingning på 15–35 år med spenn fra topp til bunnverdier på 0,3 ºC, den andre svingningen på 50–100 år med en amplitude på 1,0 ºC over Nord-Atlanteren, og den tredje global svingning på 100–400 år med temperaturforskjell på 0,75°C. Den første har sammenheng med El Niño – sørlig oscillasjon og Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern (PNA)[a], den andre skyldes svingninger i den thermosaline sirkulasjonen og den tredje synes å ha sammenheng med atmosfærens dynamikk.[116]

I tiden etter den lille istiden foreligger det instrumentmålinger fra både Europa og USA. Disse viser at en varmere periode begynte fra rundt 1850 eller tidligere.[116] Den gjennomsnittlige globale overflatetemperaturen (land og hav) viser at temperaturen var 1,09 °C høyere i perioden 2010–2012 enn i førindustriell tid, basert på flere uavhengig produserte datasett.[117] Trenden var minst i tropene og mest markant i kyststrøk på høye breddegrader med mye skyer. Vintertemperaturene ble mest påvirket i disse sistnevnte områdene. Denne temperaturøkningen har ikke vært jevn, og kan deles inn i fire perioder:[116]

  • 1881–1920 der det var gjennomsnittlig årlig svinging med 0,4 ºC som høyeste verdi, men ingen konsistent trend.[116]
  • 1920–1945 der det skjedde en temperaturøkning på gjennomsnittlig 0,4 ºC.[116]
  • 1945–rundt 1970 med svingninger mellom ytterpunkter mindre enn 0,4 ºC. I denne perioden skjedde det en liten gjennomsnittlig nedkjøling på den nordlige halvkule, mens den sørlige halvkule hadde en nokså konstant temperatur. Sibir, østlige arktiske deler av Canada opplevde i perioder lavere vintertemperaturer,[116] mens det var en vestlige deler av USA og Øst-Europa og Japan.[118]
  • Rundt 1970–2000 med en markert global oppvarming på rundt 0,5 ºC,[118] med unntak for det nordlige og sørlige Stillehavet, Nord-Atlanteren, Europa, Amazonas og Antarktis hvor det oppstod en nedkjøling.[119]

De observerte klimaendringene de siste århundrene er ikke fullt ut forstått. Det finnes mange forklaringer, og sannsynligvis er det også flere enn én faktor som har spilt inn. Noen faktorer er naturlige, andre menneskeskapte, og spesielt aerosoler kan ha begge årsaker.[klargjør] Klimaendringer de første 30 årene av 1900-tallet ser ut til å være drevet av kraftigere global vindsirkulasjon. Det oppstod en kraftig økning i styrken til vestavindene over Nord-Atlanteren, det samme med de nordøstlige passatvindene, sommermonsunene i Sør-Asia og vestavindene på den sørlige halvkule.[120]

Sammenligning mellom global temperatur modelert (brun) og målt (svart) øverst for hele 1900-tallet. Nederst vses vises modelering av temperaturuvrikling om det bare tas hensyn til sulfat aerosoler (rosa), vulkanutbrudd (grønn), ozone (turkis), variasjon i solintensitet (rød) og drivhusgasser.

Foto: Robert A. Rohde

Markerte klimaendringer har skjedd i Nord-Atlanteren i forbindelse med den positive fase av den nordatlantisk oscillasjon. Denne var for det meste negativ mellom 1930 og 1970, men returnerte etter 1980 til den hovedsakelig positive fasen (som ga sterkere vestlige luftstrømmer), som også dominert de to første tiårene av 1900-tallet. Vintrene 1995 til 1996 og 1996 til 1997 avbrøt imidlertid en serie av milde vintre i Nord-Europa.[120]

Årsaken til disse klimaendringene kan finnes i energiblansen for klimasystemet bestående av jorden og atmosfæren, som får sin energi fra solen. Det finnes indikasjoner på at solen har svigniner som gir rundt 0,5 % variasjon for den innkommende solenergien. Spesielt kan store utslipp av energirike partikler og ultrafiolett stråling oppstå ved kortvarige solstormer. Solsykluser kan forklare en svingning i jordens lufttemperatur på rundt 0,1 °C.[120]

En tror også at endrigner av atmosfæresammensetningen kan ha spilt en rolle, spesielt at redusert vulkansk aktivitet etter 1914 kan ha spilt en rolle for global oppvarming tidlig på 1900-tallet. Senere vulkanutbrudd som El Chichon i mars 1982 og Mount Pinatubo i juni 1991 gå økt interesse for å undersøke dette. Imidlertid er dette fremdeles dårlig forstått, spesielt fordi det foreligger få godt observerte tilfeller. På samme måte er bidraget fra aerosoler også kompleks og ikke noe en har sikker kunnskap om.[121]

Fra 1951 til 2010 mener FNs klimapanelt at det er veldig sannsynlig (90–100 %) at mer enn halvparten av den observerte globale gjennomsnittlige overflate temperaturøkningen skyldes menneskeskapt økning av drivhisgasser i atmosfæren. Det er sannsynlig (66–100 %) at drivhusgassene har bidrat med 0,5–1,3 °C av temperaturøkningen og at andre menneskeskapte på påtrykk har bidrat med -0,6–0,1 °C. Videre er det sannsynlig at bidrag fra naturlige påtrykk vært -0,1–0,1 °C og fra interne variasjoner i klimasystemet -0,1–0,1 °C Summen av disse har gitt den observerte oppvarmingen i perioden på 0,6 °C.[122]

Se også

Noter

Type numrering
  1. ^ Ukjent om norsk term finnes

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