by https://www.universitetsavisa.no/geir-hasnes-klima/klimakrisen-savner-basis-i-vitenskap/198753
Ytring
«Klimakrisen» savner basis i vitenskap. Universitetavisa.no Geir Hasnes, universitetslektor 2, institutt for teknisk kybernetikk
Vi snakker om et fenomen som «har eskalert i massemedia mest sannsynlig fordi det er et begrep som folk kan legge hva som helst de måtte føle for inn i det,» skriver Geir Hasnes i denne ytringen.
Klodens klima – i krise? FNs klimapanel anvender ikke ordet «klimakrise» i sin rapport, rapporterer Hasnes, som har lest den fra perm til perm. Foto: Wikimedia Commons
Geir HasnesUNIVERSITETSLEKTOR 2, INSTITUTT FOR TEKNISK KYBERNETIKK
PUBLISERT Tirsdag 31. august 2021 – 12:34 SIST OPPDATERT Tirsdag 31. august 2021 – 14:27
”Klimakrisen” er et interessant fenomen, ettersom det ikke har basis hverken i vitenskap eller observasjoner. Det har eskalert i massemedia mest sannsynlig fordi det er et begrep som folk kan legge hva som helst de måtte føle for inn i det, kombinert med menneskenes trang til å se skrekk- og katastrofefilmer og lytte til profeter med dommedagsvisjoner.
- Klimarapporten forteller ikke om noen klimakrise
FNs klimapanel har kommet med ny klimarapport. I media beskrives denne som selve grunnlaget for ”klimakrisen” og at den nærmest har sementert denne ”krisen”. Overskriftene overgår hverandre i å fortelle hvor ille det står til med Moder Jord. Mange mennesker får ”klima-angst” og mange oppsøker psykolog.
– Det er kanskje én ting mer enn noe annet som har gjort meg sikker på at ”klimakrisen” ikke eksisterer, og det er den uavlatelige, stupide og naive propagandaen som følger den, skriver Hasnes. Foto: privat.
Etter min mening burde de heller oppsøke kildene og finne ut hva som står der. Dette er nemlig det eneste sted klimarapporten nevner ”klimakrisen”:
“Also, some media outlets have recently adopted and promoted terms and phrases stronger than the more neutral ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’, including ‘climate crisis’, ‘global heating’, and ‘climate emergency’ (Zeldin-O’Neill, 2019).” (side 228).
Altså: Klimarapporten konkluderer med at ”klimakrise” og lignende sterke uttrykk finnes kun i media. Ikke ett sted forteller klimarapporten selv at der er en ”klimakrise”. For den saks skyld nevnes ikke noen klimakrise i tidligere klimarapporter.
- Det såkalte ”grønne skiftet” vil aldri finne sted.
I tre av mine tidligere artikler regnet jeg på om det grønne skiftet overhodet var gjennomførbart, om det var ”bærekraftig”, og om vindkraft og solkraft var fornybar energiproduksjon. Det var det selvsagt ikke, til tross for at jeg ikke regnet på eksponensiell vekst, men lineær vekst i energiforbruket i verden. For å oppnå politikernes lovede grønne skifte med nullutslipp må man sette opp 2000+ vindturbiner hver eneste dag i all evighet, eller legge ut 200 kvadratkilometer med solpaneler hver eneste dag i all evighet – eller bygge to atomkraftverk hver dag i all evighet.
Dette vil uansett ikke kompensere for den økte produksjon av stål og sement som da skal til. Men dette er bagateller for politikerne som skal avslutte produksjon av stål og sement for nullutslippets sak.
Dette skrev jeg om i februar. Noen måneder senere besluttet imidlertid de norske politikerne å øke løftene sine om å redusere utslippene, med 55% innen 2030. Men det er ingen ting som tyder på at politikerne har forsert utbyggingen, enn si satt igang overhodet. Jeg tror faktisk at de ikke tror på sine egne ord og løfter; de bare sier det fordi alle andre politikere sier det.
Om dette løftet var gitt på verdensbasis – og det burde det vel, for Norges utslipp utgjør bare 0.167 prosent, så må man øke industrisatsingen. Skal man produsere 22 TW kontinuerlig i 2050 så må man i 2030 produsere 55% av dette som er 12,1 TW. Den 1. september har verden 8 år og 4 måneder å gjennoomføre dette på, altså 3044 dager. Det betyr at behovet for å installere 2,08 GW pr dag har økt til 3,975 GW per dag, altså nesten en dobling av effekten – fortsatt forutsatt en lineær – og ikke eksponensiell – økning av verdens energiforbruk.
I tillegg må man faktisk sette opp vindturbiner og solcellepaneler før 2030, noe man ville slippe om målet kun skulle oppnås innen 2050, fordi en grov levetidsbetraktning gir en snittalder på disse på 20 år om man er snill i beregningene.
Altså: Ved å love et grønt skifte innen 2050 trenger ikke dagens politikere å gjøre noe før 2030, med mindre de ville bygge kjernekraftverk som har lenger levetid enn tyve år, men ved å love 55% av dette innen 2030 så må de faktisk begynne. Ikke at man kan se tegn til noe slikt.
La oss nå si at dette løftet skulle gjøres gjeldende kun for Norge og vi skal erstatte vårt eget CO2-utslipp. Verdens totale utslipp i 2020 var lavere enn i 2019, men er på vei oppover igjen. La oss likevel si at vi holder oss stabile fra 2020 av – istedenfor å regne med lineær vekst, og ta utgangspunkt i 30 Gigatonn. Norges andel i 2020 var 50 millioner tonn. Dette gir 0.167 prosent.
Antallet vindturbiner som må settes opp i Norge hver dag frem til 2030 (uten backup-last) blir da (2080 x 0,0017) = 3,5 vindturbin pr dag. Ganget med 3044 dager er dette 10 552 vindturbiner. Frem til 2030 har altså politikerne lovet oss at her skal poppe opp vindturbiner over hele landet som hestehov om våren, men så skal dette fortsette i litt lavere hastighet frem til 2050. Det er bare det at med tyve års levetid må man begynne å doble oppsettingen i 2042 for å erstatte de som nå er utrangerte.
I 2030 vil det altså stå én vindturbin pr 30 kvadratkilometer i Norge for å besørge 55% måloppnåelse. F. eks. vil Oslo kommune, for å dekke sin andel geografisk, måtte sette opp 15 gjennomsnittlige vindturbiner frem til 2030 eller en i halvåret sånn cirka. Men det vil jo ikke stoppe der. Trondheim kommune på sin side må sette opp litt over én turbin i året og vil i 2050 har 20 turbiner operable. Altså om de trodde på sine egne løfter.
Da dette er utopisk, selv for politikere som lever i sin egen drømmeverden, er det ikke rart at man begynner å snakke om havvind og om dobbelt så store vindturbiner. Men der er det mer interessant å snakke om kapasitetstetthet, da disse ikke kan stå for tett. La oss for enkelhets skyld bruke 5MW pr kvadratkilometer installert vindturbinområde.
Siden det heller ikke ser ut til at vindturbiner på land er særlig populære og at konsesjoner nå er vanskelige å få, så kan vi se på hvordan havvind kan løse politikerløftet. Installasjon pr dag blir (3975 MW x 0,00167) = 6,62 MW pr dag. Dette gir en utbyggingstakt på 1,32 kvadratkilometer hav pr dag og i 2030 vil dette dekke 4000 kvadratkilometer langs norskekysten, hvorpå utbyggingstakten går litt ned frem til 2042 hvor erstatningene må begynne å bli bygget samtidig med at nye områder kommer til.
Hvis vi går ut fra at kostnadene er CAPEX £2 millioner og OPEX £75 tusen / år pr utbygget MW for en offshore vindturbin koster det 210 millioner NOK per kvadratkilometer for en offshore vindpark som varer i 20-25 år. Utbyggingen frem til 2030 koster da 840 milliarder – for 0,17% av verdens klimautslipp. Dersom alle land i verden skulle gjøre tilsvarende vil dette koste 500 billioner eller 56 billion US$ – eller 6,8 billioner dollar per år – hvilket gjør offshore vind dyrere enn konvensjonell vind. Dette tilsvarer forøvrig brutto nasjonalprodukt til mer enn hundre av verdens 195 land oppført i statistikk fra World Monetary Forum.
Jeg er bare forbauset over at folk tar dette seriøst.
3) Ugyldige påstander om ”klimakrisen”
Det refereres f. eks. til at det er ”konsensus” blant klimaforskere for at der er en klimakrise. Men konsensus er ikke vitenskap. Den teller ikke. Konsensus er synsing, og det er helt likegyldig for vitenskapen om noen synser om den. Tenk om man skulle avvise relativitetsteorien for hundre år siden: Det er 97% fysikere som er enige i at Einstein tar feil. Eller: 97% av kardinalene er enige i at Galileo tar feil.
Media går bananas om temperaturrekorder. Men det er helt likegyldig hvor mange rekorder som settes. Det som har betydning er om disse er forårsaket av forhøyet CO2-utslipp eller ikke. Beregninger av global gjennomsnittstemperatur og rekonstruksjon av tidligere tiders temperaturer er ikke så rett frem som man får inntrykk av i media. Hete og temperatur ikke har noen en-til-en relasjon. Rekorder er ganske enkelt anekdotiske bevis – og det gjelder begge veier. Man kan hverken bevise eller motbevise en ”klimakrise” ved temperaturrekorder.
Media går bananas om flom og skogbrann, og der er de også helt likegyldige til å prøve å finne mulige andre årsaker enn øket CO2– som det er mange av. Men dette er uansett også anekdotiske bevis. Årsakssammenhengen mellom katastrofer øg økt CO2 i atmosfæren er ikke vitenskapelig, bare antatt eller påstått.
Teoretiseringen om at økt CO2 fører til økte temperaturer verden over, er ikke formulert i noen vitenskapelig teori og kan derfor ikke falsifiseres. Istedet prøver man å finne en sammenheng, kalt klimasensitiviteten, hvor en økning i CO2 skal føre til en økning i global temperatur. ”Klimakrisen” står og faller med klimasensitiviteten.
Man har prøvd å bestemme denne klimasensitiviteten i hundrevis av studier, men de spriker like mye som for over 40 år siden, til tross for en ufattelig økning i regnekraft siden da. Usikkerheten er like stor i dag som for 40 år siden. Man kan observere en generell trend i nedgangen av anslagene, det er alt.
Uten at man har bestemt klimasensitiviteten og funnet den bevist ved observasjoner, forblir dette kun en modell som må fastsettes ved kurvetilpasning. Dette er ikke vitenskap, men antagelsesskap, hvor man baserer sine modeller på antagelser.
4) Jorda er bevislig blitt grønnere.
Det eneste man kan fastslå vitenskapelig er at jorda har blitt grønnere som følge av CO2-utslipp. Vitenskapelige publikasjoner basert på satelllittobservasjoner slår fast at siden 1979 har jordas grønne dekke blitt mellom 15 og 20% større. Forskjellige studier tilegner økt CO2 en hovedpart av ansvaret for dette, mens intens skogplanting i India og China også utgjør en stor del av økningen.
Det er spesielt morsomt med skogbranner som anekdotisk bevis for ”klimakrisen” fordi narrativet for ti år siden fortalte at det skulle bli mer ørken og mer avskoging. Men det har det altså ikke blitt. Ørknene gror til i randområdene og Amazonas har den største gjenvekst i verden. Dessuten vil mer CO2 i atmosfæren føre til at plantene holder bedre på fuktigheten, hvilket igjen gir færre skogbranner.
5) Hva sier egentlig klimarapportene
Jeg har arbeidet meg gjennom klimarapportene og de forteller ikke det som media forteller om dem. Det fantes f. eks. ingen grunnlag i 2007-rapporten for å tro at isbjørnene skulle få det verre, slik Al Gore messet da han fikk Nobels fredspris. Ingen ting.
En annen påstand som både VG og Direktøren for Direktoratet for Naturforvaltning hevdet, at verdens dyreliv skulle stå 30% mer i fare for å dø ut her etter 2007-rapporten, var ren synsing, og datagrunnlaget i rapporten ga intet grunnlag for påstanden. En tredje profeti allerede fra 1990 om muligheten for aksellererende havnivåstigning skaper til stadighet overskrifter, men det later til, når man ser bort fra den generelle isostasi på jorda, at havet har stoppet å stige etter siste istid. Det observeres simpelthen ingen aksellererende havnivåstigning i verden.
6) Den verste usakligheten: Propaganda
Det er kanskje én ting mer enn noe annet som har gjort meg sikker på at ”klimakrisen” ikke eksisterer, og det er den uavlatelige, stupide og naive propagandaen som følger den.
Er det f. eks. noen som tror at jeg blit mer overbevist om ”klimakrisen” når jeg blir presentert for brunfargede eller gråsvarte fotografier av vanndamp fra kjøletårn til kraftverk som illustrasjonsbilder – som liksom skal være bevis for farlige CO2-utslipp?
Er det noen som tror at jeg blir mer overbevist om ”global oppvarming” ved at man farger værkartet på NRK blodrødt ved alminnelige sommertemperaturer?
Er det noen som tror at jeg blir påvirket av omtrentlige utsagn som at ”forskerne er enda sikrere enn før”, ”forskerne er overrasket over at det går enda raskere enn før”, ”det er enda verre enn det var tidligere”. Det er jo bare å gå til kildene. Dessuten – Hvordan er det mulig å bli ”enda sikrere”? Var de ikke så sikre tidligere? Var all tidligere propaganda basert på usikre kilder?
Er ”Hensikten helliger middelet” en fornuftig grunn for alt dette journalistiske tøvet? At man stiller opp såkalte autoritetspersoner som sier at vi har bare så mange dager eller uker eller måneder eller år igjen før det er for sent?
Ifjor kunne vi bivåne en velregissert propagandaaksjon. Avisoverskriftene skulle gi oss inntrykk av at særlig vi i Norge var ekstra klimakriseutsatte enn resten av verden. Den typiske overskrift var ”Oppvarmingen går dobbelt så raskt i Norge som i resten av verden!”
Så ser jeg noe morsomt. Samme overskrift finnes i Sverige, Finland, Japan, osv osv. – det var bare å bytte ut navnet på landet eller området. Så – egentlig – gikk det dobbelt så raskt i hvert eneste land som i resten av verden. Hvor var mysteriet?
Det var enkelt. Land dekker 29% av jorda, hav 71%. Ved en generell global temperaturstigning vil temperaturen over land stige omkring dobbelt så mye som gjennomsnittet for land og hav sammen. Men – overskriften løy, for nede i teksten sto det som var korrekt – og som er velkjent og etablert vitenskap – at temperaturen i Norge (eller hvilketsomhelst land) steg dobbelt så raskt som gjennomsnittet for verden – som ikke er det samme som ”i resten av verden”. Så når temperaturen på verdensbasis snur, så vil temperaturen på land synke dobbelt så raskt sånn cirka som gjennomsnittet for hav og land. Det er ikke mer med det, men overskriften var designet for å bli oppfattet som bevis for ”klimakrisen”.
7) Hva bør gjøres?
NTNU har et særlig ansvar når det gjelder å holde hodet klart når det serveres en styrtflom av påstander i media. Det forplikter å kalle seg et universitet for vitenskap og teknologi. Studentene kunne ha godt av å ha et fag, aller helst i første klasse, hvor de lærte kildekritikk, retorikk, begrepsdannelse, hersketeknikker, den vitenskapelige metode, vitenskapsteori og vitenskapshistorie, hvor de lærte hva som kjennetegner religioner og massesuggesjon, og hvor de lærte om alle triksene som omgir oss, fra politikere, aktivister, journalister, næringslivsfolk, alle som ønsker å benytte oss til sin fordel.
Vi vil aldri greie å utrydde menneskehetens hang til å elske profetier, men vi kan i det minste forhindre oss selv og dem rundt oss fra å bli lurt.
V
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