9. December 2023

Klimamodeller eller astrologi?

 

Klimamodeller eller astrologi?

Per Arne Bjørkum, professor II, tidligere dekan ved Universitetet i Stavanger, har publisert en interessant og svært lesverdig tekst hos forskerforum den 13. mai. Hans poeng er at «hvis klimaforskere fortsetter å legge vekt på alt som kan gå galt, risikerer vi at folk flest vender seg bort fra vitenskapen.» Her er noen sitater fra oppslaget, med linjene trukket videre til politikken fra teksten til Bjørkum.

Fra tankeeksperimenter

Etter en innledning om legevitenskap, kommer Bjørkum med dette sitatet som nok er kjent for de fleste av våre lesere: Da Albert Einstein (18791955) en gang ble spurt om han forstod hva han holdt på med, svarte han at «Nei, da hadde det ikke vært forskning».

Bjørkum fortsetter: Han var forsker – ikke ekspert. Det er mulig å forstå hvorfor noen forskere har en intellektuell forkjærlighet for fremtiden. Man trenger nemlig ikke kunne så mye for å uttale seg om hva som kan skje om 10–100 år. Og man slipper – enn så lenge – også å bli konfrontert med erfaringen.

Til eventyr

Christopher Essex funderte i sitt Oslo-foredrag for en tid siden på om klimaforskerne var vår tids eventyrfortellere. Mange har gjort den forsmedelige tabbe å spå om nær fremtid, slik at man fortsatt er blant oss når spådommene feiler, og man blir gjort til latter for all verden.

Eller til profetier

Her hjemme har vi Jørgen Randers, listet her som BI-professor i klimastrategi, med boken «Limits to Growth» på samvittigheten. Alle hans profetier har feilet, og Randers selv har neppe fått med seg at signifikant global oppvarming opphørte i 1998. Internasjonalt er John Holdren og Paul Ehrlich godt kjent for sine absurde spådommer. Holdren var president Obamas «science czar» og Paul Ehrlich utgav i 1995 boken «The Population Bomb», som forutså massesulting over hele verden. Før dette, i 1971-teksten «Global Ecology» advarte duoen om at overbefolkning og forurensning ville gi en ny istid. I tillegg hevdet Ehrlich i 1981 at 50 % av artene ville være borte i 2005.

Holdren spådde at en milliard mennesker ville dø i «karbon-dioksid fremkalt hungersnød» som del av en ny istid til år 2020. Nå er det fortsatt 8 måneder igjen til vi kommer til fristen, men i dag er situasjonen at det ikke har vært så lite sult i verden før, og istidsskremselet er i motfase til de mange «kloden koker»-skremslene vi ser i dag.

Klimamodeller eller astrologi?

Grunnlaget for disse kalde profetiene var den lange og klare globale nedkjølingen som varte i ca. 35 år frem til 1977. Men så ble verden velsignet med et FNs klimapanel, samtidig som det ble varmere. Og med klimapanelet kom klimamodellene som la grunnlaget for en helt ny generasjon profetier.

Bjørkum fortsetter i forskerforum med dette avsnittet:

Nå har vi fått datamaskiner, og de har åpnet opp for en helt ny type «eksperimenter uten observasjoner» – og som klimaforskerne benytter seg av. De lager forenklede modeller av deler av naturen og lar datamaskinene «regne» ut, og visualisere, hva som kan skje med klimaet – det er alt de har. Det er i prinsippet et uendelig antall framtidsscenarioer/bilder. Hver enkelt av dem er nokså presise på hva som vil skje, men vi vet ikke hvilke av dem, om noen, som er troverdige. Derav omtrentligheten. Og deri ligger likheten med astrologi.

Det er imidlertid én forskjell som er viktig i denne sammenhengen: Mens astrologien også gir håp om bedre tider, er det særs vanskelig å finne det i klimaforskernes syn på fremtiden – slik det fremstilles i media.

Vi anbefaler leserne å studere hele Bjørkums utmerkede tekst, det vi har sitert her er bare smakebiter.

Klima-astrologien

Mens vi i dag opplever at astrologene står i kø, forskere, politikere, lobbyister og journalister, så er virkeligheten at troverdigheten er helt fraværende fordi modellene feiler. Fra Stein Bergsmarks klimarapport 2, siterer vi (side 12):

Klimapanelet fastslo selv allerede i 2001 at deres forskning og klimamodellering ikke kan brukes til langtids spådommer om det fremtidige klima. I Panelets TAR, avsnitt 14.2.2.2 side 774 heter det… «I forskning på og modellering av klimaet, bør vi være oppmerksom på at vi har å gjøre med et kaotisk, ikke-lineært koblet system, og at langtids forutsigelser av fremtidige klimatilstander ikke er mulig»

Klimamodellene misbrukes altså som grunnlag for profetier og skremsler. Dette i tillegg til at de viser en grad av global oppvarming som ikke eksisterer ute i naturen.

Er det mulig?

Klima-astrologien står sterkt i Stortinget, hvor den gjeveste komiteen for politikere uten naturviten er energi- og miljøkomiteen. Dette oppslaget med Høyres Lene Westgaard-Halle (Dagblad-foto) viser noe nytt, at en blå politiker kan være grønnere og galere enn den mest rabiate MDG-politiker. Foruten flosklene («Kloden er skadeskutt … og vi kan ikke gi opp klimakampen»), er teksten for det meste faktafeil og utelatelser. Det er ikke engang tatt med at Stortinget selv har vedtatt at vindmøllene subsidieres opp til det doble av markedsprisen på strøm, via el-sertifikatene. Hele lønnsomheten ligger altså i subsidiene betalt av deg og meg!

Politiker-krisen

Det ville vært utenkelig i de største partiene før tusenårsskiftet at politikere med denne typen naturfaglig analfabetisme ble sluppet løs i det offentlige rom med sine kannestøperier.

Høyres Lene Westgaard-Halle (Vestfold) har flere ganger før gjort seg bemerket med sin uviten på energi, miljø og klimafeltet, bl.a på NRK med absurde påstander om en artsutryddelse som ikke finner sted i dag. Den siste fuglen som ble utryddet i Europa, forsvant så tidlig som i 1844.

Bare de tre små klimatroende partiene V, SV og MDG kunne før holde på slik med klimapolitikk som en vekkelse, men med de store partienes deltagelse i dansen rundt klimagullkalven, har vi fått en politiker-krise av epidemiske proporsjoner. Pengebruken over statsbudsjettet på en klimakrise som ikke eksisterer, passerer i år 40 milliarder.

For mange politikerne leser ikke eller forstår ikke saksdokumentene. For mange skolebarn opplever indoktrinering i stedet for læring. Både klimapolitikken og energipolitikken er på villspor, og politikerne evner hverken å ta vare på landet eller innbyggerne.

Hvis politikerne fortsetter med sin apokalyptiske klimaretorikk med vekt på alt som kan gå galt, samtidig som angrepene på befolkningens levestandard fortsetter, risikerer vi at folk flest vender seg bort fra demokratiet.

Takk til Høyres Lene Westgaard-Halle for så mesterlig å klargjøre at man i Vestfold bør stemme på noe annet.

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