
Klimamodeller eller astrologi?
- mai 17, 2019
- 00:31
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Alarmer, Dagbladet, Klimadebatt
Per Arne Bjørkum, professor II, tidligere dekan ved Universitetet i Stavanger, har publisert en interessant og svært lesverdig tekst hos forskerforum den 13. mai. Hans poeng er at «hvis klimaforskere fortsetter å legge vekt på alt som kan gå galt, risikerer vi at folk flest vender seg bort fra vitenskapen.» Her er noen sitater fra oppslaget, med linjene trukket videre til politikken fra teksten til Bjørkum.
Fra tankeeksperimenter

Etter en innledning om legevitenskap, kommer Bjørkum med dette sitatet som nok er kjent for de fleste av våre lesere: Da Albert Einstein (1879–1955) en gang ble spurt om han forstod hva han holdt på med, svarte han at «Nei, da hadde det ikke vært forskning».
Bjørkum fortsetter: Han var forsker – ikke ekspert. Det er mulig å forstå hvorfor noen forskere har en intellektuell forkjærlighet for fremtiden. Man trenger nemlig ikke kunne så mye for å uttale seg om hva som kan skje om 10–100 år. Og man slipper – enn så lenge – også å bli konfrontert med erfaringen.
Til eventyr
Christopher Essex funderte i sitt Oslo-foredrag for en tid siden på om klimaforskerne var vår tids eventyrfortellere. Mange har gjort den forsmedelige tabbe å spå om nær fremtid, slik at man fortsatt er blant oss når spådommene feiler, og man blir gjort til latter for all verden.
Eller til profetier

Her hjemme har vi Jørgen Randers, listet her som BI-professor i klimastrategi, med boken «Limits to Growth» på samvittigheten. Alle hans profetier har feilet, og Randers selv har neppe fått med seg at signifikant global oppvarming opphørte i 1998. Internasjonalt er John Holdren og Paul Ehrlich godt kjent for sine absurde spådommer. Holdren var president Obamas «science czar» og Paul Ehrlich utgav i 1995 boken «The Population Bomb», som forutså massesulting over hele verden. Før dette, i 1971-teksten «Global Ecology» advarte duoen om at overbefolkning og forurensning ville gi en ny istid. I tillegg hevdet Ehrlich i 1981 at 50 % av artene ville være borte i 2005.
Holdren spådde at en milliard mennesker ville dø i «karbon-dioksid fremkalt hungersnød» som del av en ny istid til år 2020. Nå er det fortsatt 8 måneder igjen til vi kommer til fristen, men i dag er situasjonen at det ikke har vært så lite sult i verden før, og istidsskremselet er i motfase til de mange «kloden koker»-skremslene vi ser i dag.
Klimamodeller eller astrologi?
Grunnlaget for disse kalde profetiene var den lange og klare globale nedkjølingen som varte i ca. 35 år frem til 1977. Men så ble verden velsignet med et FNs klimapanel, samtidig som det ble varmere. Og med klimapanelet kom klimamodellene som la grunnlaget for en helt ny generasjon profetier.
Bjørkum fortsetter i forskerforum med dette avsnittet:
Nå har vi fått datamaskiner, og de har åpnet opp for en helt ny type «eksperimenter uten observasjoner» – og som klimaforskerne benytter seg av. De lager forenklede modeller av deler av naturen og lar datamaskinene «regne» ut, og visualisere, hva som kan skje med klimaet – det er alt de har. Det er i prinsippet et uendelig antall framtidsscenarioer/bilder. Hver enkelt av dem er nokså presise på hva som vil skje, men vi vet ikke hvilke av dem, om noen, som er troverdige. Derav omtrentligheten. Og deri ligger likheten med astrologi.
Det er imidlertid én forskjell som er viktig i denne sammenhengen: Mens astrologien også gir håp om bedre tider, er det særs vanskelig å finne det i klimaforskernes syn på fremtiden – slik det fremstilles i media.
Vi anbefaler leserne å studere hele Bjørkums utmerkede tekst, det vi har sitert her er bare smakebiter.
Klima-astrologien
Mens vi i dag opplever at astrologene står i kø, forskere, politikere, lobbyister og journalister, så er virkeligheten at troverdigheten er helt fraværende fordi modellene feiler. Fra Stein Bergsmarks klimarapport 2, siterer vi (side 12):
Klimapanelet fastslo selv allerede i 2001 at deres forskning og klimamodellering ikke kan brukes til langtids spådommer om det fremtidige klima. I Panelets TAR, avsnitt 14.2.2.2 side 774 heter det… «I forskning på og modellering av klimaet, bør vi være oppmerksom på at vi har å gjøre med et kaotisk, ikke-lineært koblet system, og at langtids forutsigelser av fremtidige klimatilstander ikke er mulig»
Klimamodellene misbrukes altså som grunnlag for profetier og skremsler. Dette i tillegg til at de viser en grad av global oppvarming som ikke eksisterer ute i naturen.
Er det mulig?

Klima-astrologien står sterkt i Stortinget, hvor den gjeveste komiteen for politikere uten naturviten er energi- og miljøkomiteen. Dette oppslaget med Høyres Lene Westgaard-Halle (Dagblad-foto) viser noe nytt, at en blå politiker kan være grønnere og galere enn den mest rabiate MDG-politiker. Foruten flosklene («Kloden er skadeskutt … og vi kan ikke gi opp klimakampen»), er teksten for det meste faktafeil og utelatelser. Det er ikke engang tatt med at Stortinget selv har vedtatt at vindmøllene subsidieres opp til det doble av markedsprisen på strøm, via el-sertifikatene. Hele lønnsomheten ligger altså i subsidiene betalt av deg og meg!
Politiker-krisen
Det ville vært utenkelig i de største partiene før tusenårsskiftet at politikere med denne typen naturfaglig analfabetisme ble sluppet løs i det offentlige rom med sine kannestøperier.
Høyres Lene Westgaard-Halle (Vestfold) har flere ganger før gjort seg bemerket med sin uviten på energi, miljø og klimafeltet, bl.a på NRK med absurde påstander om en artsutryddelse som ikke finner sted i dag. Den siste fuglen som ble utryddet i Europa, forsvant så tidlig som i 1844.
Bare de tre små klimatroende partiene V, SV og MDG kunne før holde på slik med klimapolitikk som en vekkelse, men med de store partienes deltagelse i dansen rundt klimagullkalven, har vi fått en politiker-krise av epidemiske proporsjoner. Pengebruken over statsbudsjettet på en klimakrise som ikke eksisterer, passerer i år 40 milliarder.
For mange politikerne leser ikke eller forstår ikke saksdokumentene. For mange skolebarn opplever indoktrinering i stedet for læring. Både klimapolitikken og energipolitikken er på villspor, og politikerne evner hverken å ta vare på landet eller innbyggerne.
Hvis politikerne fortsetter med sin apokalyptiske klimaretorikk med vekt på alt som kan gå galt, samtidig som angrepene på befolkningens levestandard fortsetter, risikerer vi at folk flest vender seg bort fra demokratiet.
Takk til Høyres Lene Westgaard-Halle for så mesterlig å klargjøre at man i Vestfold bør stemme på noe annet.
Great blog here! Additionally your website rather a lot up very fast! What host are you the usage of? Can I get your associate link for your host? I desire my website loaded up as fast as yours lol
Thanks for another great post. Where else may anybody get that type of info in such an ideal way of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I’m at the search for such information.
Metody Płatności w Slottica Internetowe Kasyno. Zapewniamy kompleksową obsługę płatności, dostosowaną do potrzeb polskich graczy. Oferujemy różnorodne metody wpłat i wypłat, gwarantując bezpieczeństwo i szybkość transakcji.
I loved your idea there, I tell you blogs are so exciting sometimes like looking into people’s private life’s and work. Every new remark wonderful in its own right.
Your method of telling all in this piece of writing is really nice, every
one be capable of effortlessly know it, Thanks a lot.
Wow, that’s what I was looking for, what a information! existing here at this weblog, thanks
admin of this web page.
I used to be able to find good info from your content.
I am actually happy to glance at this website
posts which carries plenty of helpful data, thanks for
providing such statistics.
Hi! Would you mind if I share your blog with my zynga group?
There’s a lot of folks that I think would really enjoy your content.
Please let me know. Thank you
I would like to thnkx for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I am hoping the same high-grade blog post from you in the upcoming also. Actually your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own web site now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings quickly. Your write up is a great example of it.
I have been surfing online greater than three hours today, but I never discovered any interesting article like yours. It?¦s beautiful price enough for me. In my view, if all website owners and bloggers made excellent content as you probably did, the internet might be a lot more helpful than ever before.
Hey there I am so excited I found your blog page, I really found you by accident, while I was browsing on Askjeeve for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say cheers for a remarkable post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the minute but I have saved it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the superb job.
There’s definately a lot to find out about this topic.
I like all the points you have made.
Z naszego doświadczenia wynika, Mostbet to platforma, która łączy emocje hazardu z nowoczesnymi rozwiązaniami. Oferuje nie tylko atrakcyjne bonusy, ale także intuicyjne logowanie i bogaty wybór gier. Czy wiesz, że możesz zacząć od darmowych spinów i zyskać wyjątkowe promocje? Zapraszamy do odkrycia, jak działa Mostbet i dlaczego w Polska cieszy się taką popularnością! Kiedy myślisz o najlepszej platformie do gier i zakładów online w Polska, trudno nie wspomnieć o Mostbet. To miejsce, które od lat zdobywa serca graczy, oferując coś więcej niż tylko klasyczne gry. Ale co sprawia, że Mostbet to wybór numer jeden? Przyjrzyjmy się temu bliżej. Mostbet to nie tylko kasyno, to całe centrum rozrywki online. Platforma działa od 2009 roku, a jej operator, Bizbon N.V., dba o każdy szczegół.
There is so much to try to understand
Your posts provide a clear, concise description of the issues.
Post writing is also a excitement, if you be acquainted with
then you can write or else it is complicated to write.
I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good.
I do not know who you are but definitely you are going to a
famous blogger if you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!
I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great.
I don’t know who you are but definitely you are going to a
famous blogger if you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!
Article writing is also a fun, if you know afterward
you can write if not it is complicated to write.
I’m extremely inspired together with your writing skills as well as with the structure for
your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a great blog like
this one these days..
Informative article, exactly what I needed.
Hi there, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam
remarks? If so how do you stop it, any plugin or anything you can advise?
I get so much lately it’s driving me mad so any
assistance is very much appreciated.
Hello to all, the contents present at this
web page are in fact awesome for people knowledge, well, keep up the good work fellows.
Very good article. I am experiencing a few of these issues as well..
What’s up all, here every one is sharing these kinds of know-how, therefore
it’s good to read this webpage, and I used to go to see this
weblog daily.
Hello just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your post seem to be
running off the screen in Ie. I’m not sure if this is a formatting
issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but
I thought I’d post to let you know. The layout look great though!
Hope you get the issue solved soon. Thanks
If you wish for to take a good deal from this post
then you have to apply these methods to your
won weblog.
Hey! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site before but after reading through some of the post I realized it’s new to me.
Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be bookmarking
and checking back frequently!
Stunning quest there. What happened after? Thanks!
Great goods from you, man. I have consider your stuff previous
to and you are simply extremely excellent.
I actually like what you’ve got right here, really like
what you are stating and the best way wherein you are saying it.
You’re making it entertaining and you continue to care for to keep
it smart. I can not wait to learn far more from you.
This is really a tremendous site.
I’ve read several good stuff here. Definitely worth bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how much effort you put to make such a magnificent informative site.
I have to disagree with most of the comments here, but maybe I’m just a contrarian.
Enjoyed reading through this, very good material. Thanks!
I’m impressed, I need to say. Really rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both educational and entertaining, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head.
I found your blog through google and I must say, this is probably one of the best well prepared articles I have come across in a long time. I have bookmarked your site for more posts.
I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you create this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for
you? Plz reply as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to know where u got this
from. many thanks
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that.|
hi!,I love your writing so so much! proportion we be in contact more approximately your article on AOL?
I require an expert on this area to resolve my problem. Maybe that’s
you! Taking a look forward to see you.
Very good article! We will be linking to this particularly
great post on our site. Keep up the great writing.
Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thanks, However I am going through difficulties with your RSS.
I don’t understand the reason why I can’t join it.
Is there anybody else getting similar RSS
problems? Anybody who knows the solution can you kindly respond?
Thanks!!
Howdy I am so thrilled I found your website, I really found you by mistake,
while I was searching on Yahoo for something else, Anyhow I am here now
and would just like to say thanks a lot for a remarkable post and a all round entertaining
blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the minute but
I have bookmarked it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the excellent work.
Piece of writing writing is also a excitement, if you know afterward you
can write otherwise it is complex to write.
This is one very informative blog. I like the way you write and I will bookmark your blog to my favorites.
Because the admin of this web page is working, no uncertainty very
soon it will be renowned, due to its feature contents.
We need to build frameworks and funding mechanisms.
I’m curious to find out what blog platform you happen to be
working with? I’m experiencing some minor security problems
with my latest website and I would like to find something more safeguarded.
Do you have any suggestions?
Every weekend i used to pay a visit this web site, because i
want enjoyment, as this this web page conations in fact good
funny stuff too.
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your weblog and in accession capital
to assert that I acquire actually enjoyed account your blog posts.
Any way I will be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.
My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP.
I have always disliked the idea because of the
costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on various websites for about a year and am worried
about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net.
Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress posts
into it? Any help would be really appreciated!
A thoughtful insight and ideas I will use on my blog. You’ve obviously spent some time on this. Congratulations
Nice to meet you! We are a online retailer since 1988. Welcome to Elivera 1988-2025. EliveraGroup sells online natural cosmetics, beauty products, food supplements. We connect people with products and services in new and unexpected ways.
ELIVERA was established in 1988. © ELIVERA LTD was established in 2007. The first project was in 1988. It was carried out in trade with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Belgium, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
When I originally commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify
me when new comments are added- checkbox and
from now on each time a comment is added I recieve 4 emails
with the same comment. Is there a way you are able to remove me from that service?
Thanks!
How do I subscribe to your blog? Thanks for your help.
Very quickly this web site will be famous among all blogging viewers,
due to it’s pleasant content
What a stuff of un-ambiguity and preserveness of valuable know-how on the topic of unpredicted emotions.
Hello to all, how is the whole thing, I think every one is getting more
from this web page, and your views are pleasant in favor of new
people.
Its such as you learn my thoughts! You appear to grasp so
much about this, such as you wrote the book in it or something.
I feel that you could do with a few % to pressure the message house a bit, however other
than that, that is great blog. A fantastic read.
I will certainly be back.
Hello my friend! I want to say that this post is amazing, nice written and include approximately all significant infos.
I would like to peer more posts like this .
Helpful info. Lucky me I found your web site by accident, and I am stunned why
this accident did not came about earlier! I bookmarked it.
It’s very effortless to find out any topic on net as compared to books, as I found this piece
of writing at this web page.
Whoa! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a totally
different subject but it has pretty much the same layout and
design. Great choice of colors!
I love what you guys are usually up too. This kind of clever work and coverage!
Keep up the fantastic works guys I’ve included you guys to my own blogroll.
I like the helpful info you provide in your articles.
I’ll bookmark your blog and check once more right here frequently.
I am somewhat certain I’ll be informed many new stuff right here!
Best of luck for the following!
Hi there everyone, it’s my first pay a visit at this web page, and paragraph
is actually fruitful for me, keep up posting these
types of posts.
This piece of writing will assist the internet users for
setting up new webpage or even a blog from start to end.
I favored your idea there, I tell you blogs are so helpful sometimes like looking into people’s private life’s and work.At times this world has too much information to grasp. Every new comment wonderful in its own right.
Wonderful post! We are linking to this particularly great
content on our website. Keep up the good writing.
Excellent article. Keep writing such kind of information on your blog.
Im really impressed by your site.
Hi there, You have done an excellent job. I will definitely digg
it and in my opinion recommend to my friends. I am sure they’ll be benefited from this web site.
These are genuinely impressive ideas in about blogging.
You have touched some good things here. Any way keep up wrinting.
We’re a bunch of volunteers and starting a brand new scheme
in our community. Your website provided us with helpful information to work on. You have performed an impressive activity
and our whole neighborhood will likely be thankful
to you.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts about descriptive-research.
Regards
Hi, I do think this is an excellent website. I stumbledupon it 😉 I am going to return yet again since I
saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the
best way to change, may you be rich and continue to
help other people.
I’m very happy to uncover this website. I need to to
thank you for your time for this fantastic read!! I definitely appreciated every part of it and I have you saved as a favorite to see new stuff in your blog.
I’d like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this site.
I am hoping to check out the same high-grade blog
posts from you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to
get my own, personal site now 😉
Wow! Finally I got a weblog from where I be able to genuinely get valuable facts
concerning my study and knowledge.
Tips and tools you offer are so helpful to agencies in our community.
This blog post is excellent, probably because of how well the subject was developed. I like some of the comments too though I could prefer we all stay on the subject in order add value to the subject!
Heya! I understand this is kind of off-topic however I needed to
ask. Does managing a well-established blog
like yours require a massive amount work? I’m completely
new to writing a blog but I do write in my diary everyday.
I’d like to start a blog so I can share my own experience
and views online. Please let me know if you have
any kind of recommendations or tips for brand new aspiring blog owners.
Thankyou!
Good day! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I really enjoy reading through your articles. Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
When we look at these issues, we know that they are the key ones for our time.
I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this site.
I am hoping to check out the same high-grade blog posts by you later on as well.
In truth, your creative writing abilities has encouraged
me to get my own, personal website now 😉
Hello to every single one, it’s in fact a good for me to pay
a quick visit this site, it includes important Information.
Thanks for finally talking about > Klimamodeller eller
astrologi? – Klima Klimaendring Hysteri Myte Krise Klimakatastrofe Feil Fakta Fornuft Skypat Senter the
Best Blogg – Nyheter CO2 Usikker Science Vitenskap Patologi < Liked it!
Hi everybody, here every person is sharing these know-how, therefore it’s
good to read this blog, and I used to pay a visit this weblog all the time.
What’s up colleagues, how is everything, and what you would like to
say concerning this post, in my view its truly amazing designed for me.
I constantly emailed this web site post page to all my friends,
since if like to read it after that my contacts will too.
I am lucky that I discovered this website , precisely the right info that I was searching for! .
The clarity in your post is just nice and I can tell you are an expert in the subject matter.
Hi there to all, for the reason that I am truly keen of reading this weblog’s post to be updated
on a regular basis. It includes good data.
I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly look forward to your future updates. The usefulness and significance is overwhelming and has been invaluable to me!
I would really like to appreciate the endeavors you cash in on written this article. I’m going for the similar best product from you finding out in the foreseeable future as well. Actually your creative writing abilities has urged me to begin my very own blog now. Genuinely the blogging is distributing its wings rapidly. Your write down is often a fine illustration showing it.
Great beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend
your web site, how could i subscribe for a blog website?
The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided bright
clear idea
If you don’t mind, where do you host your weblog? I am looking for a very good web host and your webpage seams to be extremely fast and up most the time…
I have learn some excellent stuff here. Definitely value bookmarking for revisiting.
I surprise how so much effort you place to create this type of fantastic informative site.