3. February 2023

Konsensus om klimaet. Søren Hansen

 

https://klimarealisme.dk/2021/10/30/konsensus-om-klimaet/

 

Konsensus om klimaet

For nyligt bragte vi en anmeldelse af vores norske søsterforening Klimarealistenes nye tidsskrift. Her var der bl.a. en fin artikel, skrevet af Grabert et al., om ”konsensus” i klimavidenskaben. Igen og igen hører vi, at der er enighed mellem 97 % af klimaforskerne om, at den nuværende globale opvarmning udelukkende er forårsaget af menneskehedens udledninger af drivhusgasser, og at det er et problem, der er så alvorligt, at det skal løses uden tøven (helst ved en ”grøn omstilling”).

Graberts indlæg dækker en række videnskabelige artikler om ”konsensus” frem til 2020. Den fik derfor ikke det seneste skud på stammen med, en artikel: Lynas et al., der netop er udkommet, og som hævder, at der faktisk er over 99 % konsensus.

Men hvad går alt det her ud på? Indledningen til Lynas et al. lyder som følger:

Omfanget af den videnskabelige konsensus om menneskeskabte klimaforandringer er af stor interesse for samfundet. Hvis der stadigvæk er en betydelig ægte videnskabelig tvivl om, hvorvidt moderne klimaforandringer er menneskeskabte, vil det svække opbakningen til nedbringelse af drivhusgas-udledningerne. I modsætning hertil vil en bred konsensus i den fagfællebedømte litteratur gøre alle de argumenter ugyldige, som ellers hævder, at der stadigvæk er en væsentlig debat i videnskabens verden om realiteten af menneskeskabte klimaforandringer.

I en anden artikel, som vi skal kigge lidt på her, Cook et al. fra 2013, står der tilsvarende:

Et indtryk i offentligheden af, at der er konsensus om menneskeskabt global opvarmning, er en nødvendig forudsætning for at få bred støtte til klimapolitikken.

Vi har altså at gøre med forskning, hvor der allerede fra start af klart meldes ud, hvad resultatet gerne skulle være. Formålet er ikke så meget at undersøge, hvorvidt der er konsensus, men snarere at bevise, at den er der. Det er vist ikke specielt sund videnskab, men snarere politik, der er forklædt som videnskab.

Vi starter med Cook. I udgangspunktet foretog man en søgning blandt sammendrag (abstracts) af videnskabelige artikler udgivet mellem 1991 og 2011 og samlet i en database. Man ledte efter ordene ”global opvarmning” (global warming) og ”globale klimaforandringer” (global climate change). I alt fandt man 11.944 artikler, efter frasortering af et mindre antal åbenlyst irrelevante indslag. 24 personer, der via en klimaaktivistisk hjemmeside var blevet rekrutteret til formålet, blev sat til at gennemgå alle sammendragene, således at to bedømmere uafhængigt af hinanden kiggede på hvert sammendrag. Bedømmerne skulle kategorisere artiklerne efter 2 sæt kriterier, hvoraf det ene specifikt gik på graden af enighed med konsensus. Her var der 7 kategorier at vælge i mellem:

  1. Åben erkendelse af, at menneskeheden er ansvarlig for størstedelen af opvarmningen
  2. Åben erkendelse af at vi står for noget af opvarmningen
  3. Indirekte erkendelse af at mennesker står for opvarmningen
  4. Ingen holdning, og ingen stillingtagen til årsagen til den globale opvarmning – eller at årsagen er ukendt
  5. Indirekte tilkendegivelse af at menneskeheden kun har minimal indflydelse på opvarmningen
  6. Afvisning af vores ansvar, eller udtryk for at det er ubetydeligt, dog uden at opgøre størrelsesordener
  7. Klar udtalelses om at vores ansvar er beskedent, med angivelse af størrelsesordenen

Det andet sæt kategorier opdelte artiklerne efter deres emne, var det klimavidenskab, ”grøn omstilling” eller noget andet?

De to bedømmere på hver artikel var i første omgang uenige om ca. 1/3 af alle bedømmelserne, det tal blev så nedbragt, bl.a. ved at nogle ”overdommere” greb ind.

Resultatet af øvelsen var ganske interessant: Artiklerne fordelte sig på de ovennævnte syv kategorier som vist i tabel 1:

Tabel 1: Resultaterne fra Cook et al.

Der er således 32,6 %, der er for konsensus og sammenlagt 1 %, der er imod. I alt 33,6 % har taget stilling til global opvarmning og heraf er 32,6 % for, hvilket udgør de 97 af alle dem, der har taget stilling.

Det udelader jo så de 66,4 %, hvor man i deres sammendrag ikke kunne udlede nogen mening – måske fordi den ikke var relevant for artiklen – men derfor kunne forfatterne jo sagtens have en holdning til spørgsmålet alligevel.

Dette spørgsmål blev så taget op med en spørgeskemaundersøgelse, hvor man fik svar fra forfatterne til godt 2000 artikler, dvs. 16-17% af totalen ovenfor. Blandt de forskere, der havde en mening om den globale opvarmning, var der igen 97 % der støttede konsensus. Men blandt forfatterne til artikler, hvor sammendraget ikke udtrykte nogen mening om opvarmningen, viste det sig, at kun 53 % støttede konsensus.

Derved kunne man jo lægge de 47 % (af 66,4 %) til dem, der var i mod konsensus, men det gør Cook ikke, de har bl.a. følgende (bort-)forklaring:

Man bemærker det store antal sammendrag, der ikke giver udtryk for nogen stillingtagen til menneskeskabt global opvarmning. Det er, hvad man kan forvente i en konsensus-situation, hvor videnskabsfolk generelt fokuserer deres diskussioner på spørgsmål, der stadigvæk er tvivl om eller er ubesvarede, frem for ting som alle er enige om.

Cook’s artikel slutter fornøjet med konklusionen om de 97% for konsensus – hvilket jo også er det politisk ønskede resultat.

Artiklen Grabert et al. behandler undersøgelser af konsensus mellem 2009 og 2020. Her kigges der primært på studier, der er baseret på udsendelse af spørgeskemaer til forskerne og indhentning af deres svar. Cook, omtalt ovenfor, er således ikke med her.

Det første studie omtalt i Grabert indbefattede udsendelse af spørgeskemaer til 6550 videnskabsfolk, som var blevet identificeret som havende arbejdet med klimaspørgsmål. Der blev stillet 2 spørgsmål: Dels om hvorvidt man mente, at CO2 medfører global opvarmning (det ”kvalitative” udsagn), og dels om CO2 var den dominerende årsag til temperaturstigningen (det ”kvantitative” udsagn). 29 % af de 6550 svarede. I første omgang var det 82 %, der var enige i det kvalitative udsagn og kun 66 % var enige i det kvantitative udsagn. Det var jo klart utilfredsstillende, når forfatterne var på udkig efter ”konsensus” over 90 % og helst langt over.

Man gjorde så det, at man simpelthen begyndte at frasortere nogle af dem, der havde svaret. F.eks. opdelte man videnskabsfolkene efter hvor mange artikler, de havde offentliggjort inden for klimavidenskaben. Det hjalp noget, som vist på fig. 1. Men den eneste måde, hvorpå man kunne komme over de 90 %, var ved kun at se på forfattergruppen til IPCC’s rapport nr. 4 (AR4). Her nåede man endeligt over 90 % tilslutning til konsensus, men desværre var der så også kun 165 forskere tilbage ud af de 6550. I og med at de var medforfattere til en IPCC-rapport, ville man nok forvente, at de havde stor tilslutning til konsensus, og i øvrigt at de var mere motiverede til at svare på spørgeskemaet end alle forskerne i gennemsnit. Begge dele vil selvfølgeligt drive resultatet op i retning af konsensus. Men en sølle omgang var det.

Fig. 1: Metode til at forøge opbakningen til konsensus. Blå stolper er antallet af artikler med forskellige sorteringskriterier (segmenter). Gul kurve er graden af “konsensus” i det udvalgte segment.

En anden artikel udsendte to spørgsmål til medlemmer af det amerikanske meteorologiske selskab. Spørgsmålene lød: 1. Sker der en global opvarmning? 2. Hvis ja, hvad er så hovedårsagen? Til det andet spørgsmål kunne man svare enten ”mest menneskeskabt” eller ”ligeligt naturligt og menneskeskabt”. Resultatet blev at 52 % svarede ”ja – mest menneskeskabt” og 10 % ”ja – ligeligt…”. Det var jo meget langt væk fra 97 % konsensus, mildt sagt. Løsningen blev igen at filtrere efter nogle kriterier om deltagelse i aktiv klimavidenskab, hvorved procenten af ”ja – mest menneskeskabt” kom op på 78 %, men til gengæld var der nu kun 124 personer tilbage blandt de 1821, der havde svaret. Og stadigvæk var man ikke nået de magiske 97 %.

Grabert omtaler et par tilsvarende artikler, med finurlige kombinationer af spørgsmål og lignende metoder, men ingen af dem når faktisk op over 90 % for konsensus, og deres rå tal er lavere, men bringes så op ved filtrering, som nævnt ovenfor. Slutresultatet er hver gang at ”konsensus” kun er blandt en lille del af de oprindeligt udspurgte forskere.

Et sidste bud er en artikel fra 2010, der samler oplysninger fra en database over udtalelser og skrifter, og opdeler videnskabsfolkene i ”overbeviste” eller ”ikke overbeviste” om konsensus. Igen er andelen af ”overbeviste” lav, kun 66 %. Det viser jo klart, at der ikke var konsensus, da den artikel blev skrevet.

Det bringer os så frem til Lynas et al. fra 2021. Her er vi tilbage til Cook’s metode, med database-søgninger i sammendrag. Denne gang er der brugt 3 søgeord: ”global opvarmning”, ”globale klimaforandringer” og ”klimaforandringer”. Man søgte i alle artikler siden 2012 og fik ikke færre end 88.125 hits. Ud af dem valgte man i første omgang 3000, som så blev underkastet en nærmere analyse.

Alle artikler blev kategoriseret i de 7 grupper på samme måde som i Cook. Ud af de 3000 udvalgte artikler, kunne 282 sorteres fra, som værende åbenlyst irrelevante. Resten fordelte sig på de 7 kategorier som vist på fig. 2.

Fig. 2: Resultatet fra Lynas et al., manuel gennemgang af 3000 artikler. Mørke- og mellemblå: For konsensus, Lyseblå: Neutrale, Røde: imod konsensus.

Resultatet ligner meget det fra Cook, det store flertal af artikler er neutrale. 4 artikler afviste den menneskeskabte opvarmning. 19 artikler støttede den kvantitativt, 413 støttede kvalitativt (dvs. uden angivelse af graden af menneskeligt ansvar) og 460 antydede at der var tale om den menneskeskabte indflydelse. Det gav i alt 892 artikler for og 4 i mod konsensus, svarende til at 99,5 % var for. Forfatterne pegede endda på at man også kunne vurdere de 4 imod op imod hele antallet af artikler, dvs. 2718 hvorved procentdelen for steg til 99,8 %.

Ud fra de sammendrag, der i Cook blev identificeret som imod konsensus, blev der af Lynas identificeret klimaskeptiske ord og vendinger. Det blev en liste med i alt 150 ord. Samtlige 88.125 artiklers sammendrag blev nu gennemgået af en computer, der søgte efter de skeptiske ord.

Computersøgningen resulterede i udpegning af en stribe artikler, der kunne være klimaskeptiske, og de 1000 ”værste” blev udvalgt til nærmere manuel analyse. Her fandt forskerne, at 210 artikler alligevel støttede konsensus, 762 var hverken for eller i mod og 28 imod. Hermed konkluderes, at ud af 88.125 artikler var kun 28 i mod konsensus, og dermed var langt over 99,9 % for.

Nogen ville måske indvende, at fordi man ikke åbenlyst er imod noget, er det ikke ensbetydende med at man fuldt og helt går ind for det. Hertil har Lynas følgende bemærkelsesværdige udtalelse:

Mens Cook et al. definerer konsensus ret snævert som udtalt eller indforstået enighed, kan man bruge en bredere definition, der forstår konsensus som en manglende indvending mod et fremherskende synspunkt eller forståelse.

I den verden, vi her har betrådt, er enhver, der ikke højlydt erklærer sig totalt uenig, at betragte som 100 % enig. Imidlertid er der jo masser af artikler, der betragter omfanget af CO2-udledningernes virkning på klimaet som uafklaret. Mange af dem vil således give udtryk for, at der nok er en vis effekt af CO2 på klimaet, men at vi ikke står over for en ”klimakrise” eller en katastrofal opvarmning. Alle sådanne artikler vil i ovennævnte undersøgelser blive talt med som støtte til konsensus om katastrofen. Det ville nok overraske f.eks. R. Connolly & Willie Soon, at deres store artikel om solens mulige indflydelse på den måde betragtes som enig i en rigid konsensus.

Sandheden er jo, at der er masser af diskussioner i den videnskabelige klimalitteratur og masser af forskellige meninger og synspunkter. Med ovennævnte artiklers metode fanges den slags slet ikke – men det er jo heller ikke formålet med dem, et faktum som de selv ikke lægger skjul på.

Som et kuriosum kan her til sidst nævnes Henrik Svensmarks nyligt udsendte artikel om sammenhængen mellem solens aktivitet, kosmisk stråling, skyer og jordens temperatur. Den ville slet ikke have optrådt i ovennævnte søgninger, da dens sammendrag tilfældigvis ikke indeholder nogen af de tre søgeord: ”Climate change”, ”global climate change” eller ”global warming”. Mon ikke der er mange andre artikler i samme situation?

Og så er der selvfølgeligt det faktum, at hele ideen om konsensus i videnskaben er dybt meningsløs. Videnskabelig erkendelse opnås ikke ved en demokratisk proces, men ved vekselvirkning mellem teori og praktiske målinger eller forsøg. En accepteret teori lever kun så længe, ingen har formået at rejse tvivl om den eller bevise, at den er forkert. Klimavidenskaben er ikke på nogen måde hævet over disse grundlæggende principper.

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