21. March 2023
Ukategorisert

Massiv klimapropaganda. Utdrag. Propaganda og faktafeil i VG. Hvor er faktasjekken?

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

Utdrag herfra:

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/03/01/massiv-klimapropaganda/

Massiv klimapropaganda

Tallrike politikere og mediefolk har lenge påstått at kampen mot klimaendringer er en eksistensiell utfordring og den aller viktigste saken for menneskeheten. FNs klimapanel (IPCC) lanserte 28. februar andre del (WG2) av sjette hovedrapport. WG2 handler om virkningene av klimaendringene og hvordan vi kan tilpasse oss. Vi ser på kun ett av mange villedende medieoppslag, fra VG her hvor vi tar tak i tre punkter i en tekst hvor det aller meste er usant, villedende eller manipulerende.

Bakgrunn

Som vanlig finnes det en lengre rapport, samt et såkalt sammendrag for politiske beslutningstagere (SPM), hvor sammendraget slett ikke er dekkende for rapporten, men ligner mer på et bedrag. Det er viktig å huske på at dette er en politisk rapport bygd på første del (WG1) hvor politikerne har ekstrahert ut bare det som passer til den vedtatte klimapolitikken, mens vitenskap som ikke passer narrativet er utelatt eller manipulert. Denne rapporten kommer i det sjette året med synkende global temperatur.

Propaganda og faktafeil i VG

«Verden opplever allerede store tap av menneskeliv og natur som følge av menneskeskapte klimaendringer.»
Denne første setningen er usann. Det årlige tapet av menneskeliv grunnet alle naturkatastrofer har gått ned med mer enn 90 % de siste 100 årene, jfr figuren under som viser en sterkt synkende trend, mens budskapet i VG ukritisk selger en stigende trend. Det er i tillegg et kritisk fravær av data som peker entydig på at våre utslipp har målbar påvirkning på nesten alle typer ekstremvær.

Både dødsfall og økonomisk skade ift GDP på grunn av ekstremvær har gått klart ned siste 100 år, her SSB-forsker Bjart Holtsmark i Aftenposten: «Statistikk fra de siste 120 årene viser at stadig færre omkommer i værrelaterte naturkatastrofer. I inneværende tiår er tallene så langt spesielt lave.»

Hvor er faktasjekken?

VG intervjuer forsker Siri Eriksen, klimaprofessor ved Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet (NMBU). Hun er en av hovedforfatterne og var også med på oppsummeringen for politikere (SPM). VG har unnlatt å ta kontakt med en objektiv forsker for å få en faktasjekk eller faglige motargumenter. Etikken her er tydelig – ingen skal tillates å kritisere FNs klimapanel.

Forsker Eriksen: «For enkelte samfunn, som lavtliggende øysamfunn, er toget i ferd med å gå, om det ikke allerede har gått.»
Setningen over er en usann og politisk påstand, uten nærkontakt med fysisk vitenskap. For det første, på de aller fleste koralløyene vokser arealet til tross for noe havstigning, nå som før. Havstigningen er bagatellmessig, i størrelseorden 5-10 cm pr 100 år, legg til/trekk fra for usikkerhet på 10 cm pr 100 år. Det er ingen tegn til akselerasjon, med mindre man legger til subjektive juksteringer til rådataene.

Usant om irreversible endringer

VG skriver: «Det vil kunne sette i gang prosesser som er umulig å reversere. Havnivåstigning, tap av arter, isbreer og havis, er regnet som irreversibelt.»

Påstanden er at dette kan skje dersom 1,5 grader global oppvarming overskrides. Setningen over er propaganda, og den er håpløst tøvete, uten noen befatning med kjent vitenskap.  i naturvitenskapen kjenner man ikke til prosesser som er irreversible (såkalte vippepunkter, eller tipping points), da det i alle kjente prosesser er dempende tilbakekoblinger. (Se KN273 for mer om tilbakekoblinger)
Det nærmeste man kommer er ferden inn i en istid (en kjølende prosess over minst 5000 år som pågår nå) og ut igjen etter ca 100.000 år, og hvor endringer i havnivå definitivt er reversible i en skala på 80-120 meter mellom havet nå og havet ved full istid. Nåværende varmetopp er den kaldeste av 10 siden forrige istid, jfr. figuren under, fra boka Motvekt av Gregory Wrightstone.

Også Klimapanelet påpeker at irreversible prosesser ikke eksisterer, men begrepet brukes likevel til å skremme befolkningen. Hvor er faktasjekken ???

however, there is no evidence for global-scale tipping points in any of the most comprehensive models evaluated to date in studies of climate evolution in the 21st century

IPCC 2013 WG1AR5. Side 145, siste avsnitt i 1.2.2

Av ti varme perioder de siste 10 000 år er vi nå i den kaldeste av disse ti.

Når det gjelder den globale oppvarmingen, så er vi altså i det sjette året med global nedkjøling etter en kortvarig El Nino-forårsaket varmetopp tidlig i 2016. Og mer vesentlig, professor Richard Tol, en av hovedforfatterne i forrige klimarapport, med ansvar for å kartlegge effektene av global oppvarming, er klar på at all oppvarming opp til 2 grader, utelukkende har positive effekter, altså et nivå nesten 1 grad over nåværende temperatur. Se figuren under. Fjorårets klimarapport påpeker også at de økonomiske effektene av all oppvarming opp til 6 grader er minimale, sammenlignet med alt annet som påvirker økonomien.

To ulike kurver for klimapåvirkning, fra professor Tol.

Hovedelementene i oppslaget over er oversendt de ansvarlige (?) journalistene samt VGs ansvarlige for etiske forhold, da det er etisk uforsvarlig både med så mange grove faktafeil i ett enkelt oppslag, og med en slik subjektiv vinkling av klimasaken i deres tekst 28/2 og i VGs generelle dekning av klimasaken.

scientist dubietas

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