by Hentet: https://klimarealistene.com/mer-is-i-adventfjorden-og-i-barentshavet/
Mer is i Adventfjorden og i Barentshavet
Klimanytt nr. 359 Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Jan-Erik Solheim
Ifølge Fredsprisvinner Al Gores nobelprisforedrag i 2007 skulle isen i Arktis forsvinne om 7 år. Dette ble støttet av et iskart laget av Norsk Polarinstitutt og overrakt Al Gore av Norges utenriksminister på klimatoppmøtet i København i 2009. Men slik har det ikke gått. De siste 17 årene har isen i Arktis holdt seg noenlunde konstant, og i april 2024 var det mer is rundt Svalbard enn på 20 år.
Isen tilbake i Adventfjorden
I Svalbardposten kom det en gladmelding ved påsketider: Isen i Adventfjorden er tilbake etter 20 års fravær. Det ble opprettet en skuterløype så folk fra Longyearbyen kunne komme seg på tur. Men mer is var ikke bare positivt. Kraftverket i Longyearbyen som tidligere brukte kortreist kull er nå bygget om til dieseldrift. Et tankskip med diesel ble liggende fast i isen, men Sysselmesterens skip Polarsyssel greide å få det løs. Om ikke det var nok, så sviktet dieselaggregatet på kraftverket, og forsvaret måtte bruke et av sine Herkules fly til å levere reserve dieselaggregater. Men selv det var ikke nok, og i en periode måtte Longyearbyen få strøm fra kull i den siste gjenværende kullgruven, Gruve 7, som er besluttet nedlagt.
Ismaksimum i Barentshavet
I Norsk Polarinstitutts årbok for 1999 ble det publisert et kart som viste maksimal is i april for fire utvalgte år: 1769, 1866, 1966 og 1995. Kartet var basert på data fra Torgeir Vinje, en av de mest berømte polarforskere i siste halvdel av forrige århundre. Han hadde estimert posisjonen til iskanten i Barentshavet gjennom 400 år basert på skipslogger, oppgaver fra fangstmenn, hvalfangere, ekspedisjoner, fiskere og etter hvert fra fly og satellitter. Hensikten med kartet var å demonstrere de store variasjonene i iskantens posisjon i løpet av 400 år. Jeg har i samme kart lagt inn maksimal iskant i april 2024. Vi ser at iskanten var langt nord i 1769 og 1995. Den var langt sør i 1866 og 1966. I 2024 var den enkelte steder som sør for Svalbard, lengre sør enn de ekstreme årene 1866 og 1966.
Al Gore og iskanten
Tidligere visepresident Al Gore ble tildelt Nobels Fredspris sammen med FNs klimapanel i 2007. I sitt Nobelprisforedrag proklamerte han at forskere hadde fortalt ham at isen rundt Nordpolen skulle forsvinne om 7 år. Dette ble slått stort opp i media.
For å støtte opp om Al Gores påstand ble det av Norsk Polarinstitutt til klimatoppmøtet i København i 2009 produsert et fargerikt hefte med bilder av minkende is. Dette ble overrakt Al Gore av den norske utenriksminister (som nå er statsminister). Den inneholdt et kart som viste maksimal iskant i 1866, 1966 og 1995. At iskanten var lengre nord i 1769 stod ikke på kartet. Dette ble tatt som bevis for at Al Gore hadde rett. Han proklamerte nå at sommerisen rundt Nordpolen kom til å forsvinne i 2014 eller 2016. Men det gjorde den ikke. Al Gore fikk politisk korrekte prognoser, men dessverre fulgte ikke Naturen opp.
I perioden 2007-2023 var det som alltid store variasjoner i isdekkets minimumsstørrelse, men det var ingen trend. (Astrup Jensen 2023). Arktis ble verken isfritt i 2014 eller 2016. IPCC (2021) konkluderte med at sommerisen i Arktis vil forsvinne omkring 2050-70 ved middels og høye klimagassutslipp. Solheim m.fl. (2021) har laget en prognose basert på planetenes periodiske variasjoner. Ifølge denne vil iskanten bevege seg sørover i perioden 2025-2100. Naturen vil bestemme.
Referanser:
Astrup Jensen, A, 2023, Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Science of Climate Change, Vol. 3.4, s 353-358. https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202310/23
IPCC, 2021, AR6 WG1 Summary for Policymakers, Fig. SPM.8b, s.22. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
Solheim, J-E, Falk-Petersen, S, Humlum, O og Mörner, NA 2021, Changes in Barents Sea Ice Edge Positions in the Last 442 Years, Part 2: Sun, Moon and Planets, International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol. 11, s. 279–341, https://doi.org/10.4236/ijaa.2021.112015
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