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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/08/04/meteorologisk-institutt-med-pseudovitenskap/
Meteorologisk institutt med pseudovitenskap
- august 4, 2021
- 23:13
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Arktis, Klimapolitikk
Klimanytt nr. 301. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Meteorologisk institutts faglige renommé har falmet med deres uvitenskapelige klimarelaterte utspill. Manipulering med start og endepunkter i tidsserier, manglende historisk perspektiv og sviktende vitenskapelig integritet bringer fremstillingen over i pseudovitenskap.
Meteorologisk institutt (DNMI) er ikke som før. Da kunne Leif Juster og andre spøke med «Mot normalt» og stor feilprosent i spådommene. Likevel hadde Instituttet høy troverdighet. Folk oppfattet at meteorologene gjorde sitt faglig beste og formidlet værmeldingen på en ærlig måte innen et meget komplekst fagområde med stor usikkerhet. Dagens værmelding utarbeides nok med samme innstilling og med bedre data og metoder.
Meteorologisk institutt med klimaagenda
Men dagens klimarelaterte kommentarer til værmeldingene og deres nettsider er ofte lite troverdige, og mye av deres øvrige klimainformasjon har svekket deres faglige posisjon kraftig blant dem som følger med. Departementet (KMD) som de er underlagt, og NRKs agendapregede klimaformidlere er sikkert fornøyd, i motsetning til folk som ønsker korrekt informasjon. Stadig oftere skinner det igjennom en streben etter å forklare varme og kritiske værhendelser som del av menneskeskapt klimapåvirkning, men det er ikke i tråd med vitenskapen innen ekstremvær som har store bidrag av kaos og ukjente mekanismer.
Det blir faglig sett uholdbart når DNMIs egne ekstremvær-statistikker for Norge siden 1994 ikke viser økende tendens, snarere en svak nedgang (KN 293). Sommerens regionale varmeperioder som hyppig hausses opp og forklares med eller hintes til menneskeskapt CO2-oppvarming, skjer mens den globale middeltemperatur, ekstremområdene inkludert, har sunket en halv grad og er nede på gjennomsnittet for perioden 1997-2015, betegnet som temperaturutflating i IPCCs hovedrapport AR 5.
Når områder har kaldere perioder hintes til at dette bare er regionalt. Eller det omtales ikke. Jeg leste at det lokalt var satt over 4000 kulderekorder i USA sist vinter uten at det utbroderes, selv om klodens middeltemperatur sank med ca. 0.5 C – i størrelse, halvparten av det som ellers betegnes som dramatisk og klimakrise når det dreier seg om oppvarming over hele 140 år (ca. 1 C).
De mange feilaktige forklaringer fra DNMI og NRK som mediene bringer videre, har gitt grunnlag for å etablere nettstedet «værstat.no». De baserer sin virksomhet på å korrigere feilaktige, manglende og tendensiøse meldinger knyttet til værstatistikk. Da har de nok å gjøre og gir mange fine eksempler.
Feilaktig bruk av start og sluttpunkt i måleserier
En kategori av pseudovitenskap, en lumsk variant, er når budskapet isolert sett ikke er direkte feil, men i forhold til en helhetlig sammenheng blir budskapet fordreid og feilaktig og tilfredsstiller ikke vitenskapelige krav. I klimasammenheng finnes en kategori med et stort antall eksempler på manipulerende valg av start og endepunkt i måleserier.
Et godt eksempel er AMAP-rapporten (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) som ble forelagt det politiske møte på høyt politisk nivå i Arktisk råd 20. mai 2021. Hovedkonklusjonen var at Arktis varmes dramatisk med hurtige klimaendringer og tilhørende effekter. Driverne er menneskeskapt økning av drivhusgasser. Tiltak er nødvendig.
Bakgrunnsmaterialet var rapporten med temperaturkurve angitt innen den røde rammen for Arktis (grå) og global middeltemperatur (rød) mellom 1971 og 2019 (Se analyse fra Værstat her). Leserens inntrykk er jo åpenbart at konklusjonen er korrekt, noen tror det også er dramatisk. Men ser man hele kurven fra år 1900 under ett, som Værstat har inkludert og tydeliggjort med de gule kurvene, dannes et helt annet bilde, med en helt annen konklusjon. Den blir enda tydeligere om mønsteret videreføres bakover til en ny topp i 1870-årene som viser minimumet rundt 1910. DNMI som har en sentral rolle i dette arbeidet har bare formelle, uholdbare bortforklaringer.
For disse systematiske variasjonene med anslagsvis 60 års sykluser er velkjente, de finnes andre steder på kloden og er markante i Arktis. Siden antropogent CO2 begynte å øke nevneverdig først etter 1950 fremtrer en motsatt konklusjon: Variasjonen er ikke unik, den er omtrent like markant uten CO2 og syklusen er ikke i fase, snarere motfase, med antropogene CO2-utslipp.
Velkjente arktiske, naturlige variasjoner
De omtalte naturlige variasjoner er velkjente. Utenlandske og norske aviser hadde en rekke artikler særlig i 1930-årene som intervjuet og oppsummerte.
Meteorolog Hesselberg fra DNMI uttalte til Aftenposten i 1947 at temperaturen i Arktis hadde steget jevnt og trutt de siste 25 år med markant retrett av isbreer og betydelige endringer i naturen. Periodiske variasjoner var en mulighet man undersøkte. Professor Knut Fægri omtalte at isbreer over hele verden gikk tilbake. Morgenbladet skrev i 1935 at den amerikanske meteorologen, prof. Kincer hadde påvist at hele verden ble varmere siden midten av 1800-tallet. Aftenposten siterte i 1936 dosent Adolf Hoel som påpekte at Svalbard var blitt ca 7 C varmere om vinteren, omtrent samme relative endring som i senere perioder.
Oseanografen, prof. Bjørn Helland Hansen, uttalte også til Aftenposten i 1938 at sist vinter hadde fangstfolk ikke kunnet observere haviskanten fra fjellene på nordsiden. Som en anerkjent oseanograf påpekte han at Golfstrømmen brakte varmere vann inn i Arktis. Klima nærmer seg forholdene under Bronsealderen. Kaptein Ingebrigtsen (seilt i Arktis siden 1867) skrev i en rapport fra 1922 at det var et m,ye varmere Arktis han ikke kjente igjen. Temperaturen i havet var ikke de normale 2-3 C, men 10-15 C. Russiske Pravda omtalte i september 1945 meget lite is i Arktis som Dagbladet ofret en liten kolonne med 8 linjer på: «Snart isfritt til Nordpolen».
Konklusjon
Selv ikke justerte rådata og statistiske varianter kan rokke ved dette overbevisende observasjonsmaterialet. DNMI har i den senere tid sviktet sin vitenskapelige tradisjon og bedriver pseudovitenskap om klima. Som Norges delegasjon gjorde da de støttet Canadas forslag om å sløyfe referanser i IPCC-rapporten 2007 om oppvarmingen 1920-40. Det som tidligere ledende meteorologer omtalte uten dramatikk, snarere forklart som klimaforbedringer etter den Lille istid.
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One thing I’ve noticed is the fact that there are plenty of beliefs regarding the banks intentions whenever talking about property foreclosure. One fairy tale in particular is that often the bank desires your house. The lending company wants your hard earned money, not your house. They want the money they gave you along with interest. Staying away from the bank will still only draw the foreclosed realization. Thanks for your posting.
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One thing is that if you find yourself searching for a student loan you may find that you’ll need a cosigner. There are many cases where this is correct because you will find that you do not possess a past credit standing so the financial institution will require that you’ve got someone cosign the financial loan for you. Interesting post.
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An added important part is that if you are an older person, travel insurance with regard to pensioners is something that is important to really take into consideration. The mature you are, the greater at risk you might be for getting something terrible happen to you while in foreign countries. If you are certainly not covered by quite a few comprehensive insurance policies, you could have a number of serious complications. Thanks for revealing your ideas on this website.
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One more thing. It’s my opinion that there are a lot of travel insurance websites of trustworthy companies that allow you to enter your trip details and obtain you the insurance quotes. You can also purchase the particular international travel cover policy on the internet by using your own credit card. Everything you should do is always to enter all travel information and you can see the plans side-by-side. Only find the system that suits your capacity to pay and needs and then use your credit card to buy the idea. Travel insurance on the web is a good way to search for a reputable company regarding international holiday insurance. Thanks for discussing your ideas.
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One thing is that often one of the most widespread incentives for using your credit card is a cash-back as well as rebate supply. Generally, you’ll receive 1-5 back in various purchases. Depending on the credit cards, you may get 1 returning on most expenditures, and 5 back on acquisitions made going to convenience stores, filling stations, grocery stores in addition to ‘member merchants’.
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Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!
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Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!
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Thanks for giving your ideas on this blog. As well, a misconception regarding the banking institutions intentions whenever talking about foreclosure is that the bank will not have my installments. There is a certain amount of time which the bank requires payments occasionally. If you are very deep within the hole, they may commonly demand that you pay the actual payment fully. However, that doesn’t mean that they will not take any sort of installments at all. Should you and the standard bank can manage to work a little something out, the foreclosure practice may cease. However, in case you continue to neglect payments wih the new system, the property foreclosure process can just pick up where it was left off.
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