by Hentet: https://klimarealistene.com/ny-studie-antyder-global-oppvarming-er-bare-et-storbyproblem/
Ny studie antyder global oppvarming er bare et storbyproblem
En ny studie publisert i det vitenskapelige fagfellevurderte tidsskriftet, Climate, av 37 forskere fra 18 land antyder at nåværende estimater for global oppvarming er forurenset av for sterke utslag av urbane varmeøyer. Den reelle oppvarmingen i moderne tid kan være opptil 40 % lavere enn påstått.
Studien antyder også at anslått solaktivitet benyttet i de siste rapportene fra FNs Klimapanel (IPCC) trolig har undervurdert solens rolle i global oppvarming siden 1800-tallet. Som kjent fra en tidligere studie fra 2021 har IPCC brukt svært tvilsomme datasett når de har nedvurdert solens rolle. Man legger umiddelbart merke til at mange kjente navn står bak denne studien, i tillegg til den svært meritterte Syun-Ichi Akasofu.
Den samme forskergruppen har i en annen studie som konkluderer likt, sett på samme problemstilling ved å analysere tre ulike temperaturestimater og hele 25 ulike estimater over solaktivitet.
Urbane varmeøyer
Det er velkjent at byer er varmere enn det omkringliggende landskapet. Mens urbane områder bare utgjør mindre enn 4 % av klodens landareal, er mange av værstasjonene som brukes til å beregne global temperatur, lokalisert i urbane områder. Derfor har noen forskere vært bekymret for at nåværende estimat for global oppvarming kan ha blitt forurenset av urbane varmeøyeffekter. Med andre ord, høykvalitets temperaturmålinger fra landlige strøk er blandet med lavkvalitetsmålinger fra storbyer, og dermed får vi mindre seriøe og alt for høye gjetninger for global oppvarming. I siste hovedrapport anslo IPCC at byoppvarming sto for mindre enn 10 % av global oppvarming. Imidlertid antyder denne nye studien at byoppvarming kan utgjøre opptil 40 % av oppvarmingen siden 1850.
Disse 40 % kommer i tillegg til de 17 % som IPCC har plusset på observert oppvarming på grunn av en jukstering som på fagspråket betegnes som demaskering. IPCC mener at siden modellert oppvarming er mye større enn observert oppvarming via termometre, så må det være en oppvarming et sted som termometrene ikke har fanget opp, dermed legges det til 17 %. De endrer altså på observasjonene for å få de til å passe til CO2-hypotesen som har feilet. I vitenskapen er ikke dette tillatt, men i klimapolitikken har de sine egne regler.
Hvordan påvirker vår sol?
Den samme forskergruppen, men med færre deltagere, tok dette forholdet opp tidligere. Mens IPCC har brukt en ny modell for solinnstråling (se øverste panel) står solforskningen samlet bak sin egen modell for solinnstråling (se nederste panel i figuren). I tillegg er det avdekket mer snusk, i og med at det er dokumentert at IPCC-modellen (PMOD) ikke følger vitenskapelig metode, imotsetning til ACRIM som brukes av solforkningen. De best orienterte forstår at når man i akademisk sakprosa skriver «ikke følger vitenskapelig metode», så er det i dette tilfellet snakk om metoder som har mest til felles med bedrageri.
Studien analyserer svært grundig de to viktigste forholdene, først hvor stor andel av oppvarmingen siden 1850 som skyldes urbane varmeøyer, og så hvilket datasett for solinnstråling som er det mest troverdige mht solens bidrag til trenden i observert temperatur. Dette er en pågående vitenskapelig debatt.
IPCC har i AR6 konkludert med at «contemporary climate change is «overwhelmingly due to human influence» (Technical Summary, p. 11).» Denne studien påpeker at denne konklusjonen er grunnløs, fordi den ikke redegjør forsvarlig for de to pågående vitenskapelige debattene vist til i avsnittet ovenfor.
Studien lener seg på 188 vitenskapelige referanser, og den anbefaler videre forskning på disse forholdene:
- Bedre kvantifisering av urbane varmeøyers betydning for globale temperatur estimater.
- Bedre temperatur homogeniserings teknikk for å korrigere for andre forhold.
- Fastslå hvilket TSI datasett som er mest pålitelig.
- Vurdering av muligheten for at menneskets påvirkning av nylige klimaendringer er for høyt.
- Naturlige klimadrivere utenom TSI og vulkansk aktivitet.
Redaksjonen antar at IPCC-leiren vil ignorerer denne forskningen på samme vis som de har ignorert nesten all annen klimaforskning (ca 300 studier årlig) som viser at IPCC tar feil.
Til denne studien har forskerne bare fått svar i form av aktiv trolling fra Gavin Schmidt på bloggen Real Climate.org. Dr. Soon har lovt redaksjonen at vi får forskernes tilsvar til trollingen, slik at vi kan dele dette med leserne. Her er det.
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