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Økt CO2-mengde avkjøler Antarktis
Klimanytt 232, forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad
I juni ble det satt kulderekord i Antarktis med -97.7 o C. Men viktigere er publikasjonen fra NASA som bekrefter at økt CO2 i Antarktis gir avkjøling. Ikke uventet ut ifra satellittmålinger allerede på 1970-tallet. Det medfører fundamentale feil i Klimapanelets beregningsmodeller og i alarmerende klimaeffekter.
IPCC-leiren, inklusive politikere og medier, har lenge hevdet at CO2-effekten er avgjort. Nå er det tiltakene som skal «redde kloden», det dreier seg om. Imens er det siste 2 år publisert over 1000 vitenskapelige publikasjoner om naturlige variasjoner og deres store betydning, langt over 100 av dem bare om solen. Men så kommer NASA-målinger som bekrefter at økt CO2 gir større utstråling og dermed avkjøling i Antarktis. Og da forsvinner også tilhørende alarmer om issmelting, havnivåstigning og pingvinenes utrydding. Alarmrekken er lang, og alle er promotert i Wikipedias manipulerte omtaler (KN 166).
Antarktis er blitt litt kaldere med mer sjøis.
Antarktis har vært gjøkungen i IPCCs omfattende arbeid med å konstruere en fremstilling av drivhuseffekten. Modellene beregner markant oppvarming omtrent som i Arktis, og «klimaeliten» har fokusert på oppvarmingen av den antarktiske halvøy lengst mot nord og nær Sør-Amerika, som bare representerer snaut 3% av kontinentet. Men i Antarktis er det fra 1979 blitt litt kaldere målt på bakken (Note 1) og med satellitter fra 1979 (se climate4you, og KN 149), motsatt av Arktis. Innlandsisen har økt, og sjøisen som omkranser kontinentet, har i perioden nådd rekordnivå (KN 129), med noen mindre variasjoner og brå endringer som er naturlige fenomener.
Da Chapman og Walsh i 2007 publiserte sin omfattende analyse av bakketemperaturene i Antarktis tok det hele 1.5 år å få akseptert publikasjonen, så lå den «på vent» i ytterligere ca 9 mnd og kom dermed ikke med i IPCCs 2007-rapport. Selv på København-møtet i 2009 ble den neglisjert, og Antarktis fremstilt som oppvarmet basert på en modell der oppvarmingen på halvøya (3%) var spredd utover hele kontinentet.
Økt CO2 gir avkjøling i Antarktis
De første resultater kom allerede i 2015. Men et nytt vitenskapelig arbeid fra NASA i juli 2018 viser at med de spesielle atmosfæriske forholdene i Antarktis vil økt CO2 gi avkjøling i ni av årets måneder (Note3). Omtalt popularisert her og på WUWT.
Det er ikke noe nytt (Note2), og målinger med NIMBUS satellitt (figur) viste allerede i 1970-årene at de atmosfæriske forholdene i Antarktis ville gi økning.
Satellittmålinger av emisjon av infrarød, utgående stråling er vist for områdene Sahara (øverst), Middelhavet (midten) og Antarktis (nederst). De to første har felles trekk og omtales også av CICERO, riktignok i et mislykket forsøk på å beskrive drivhuseffekten korrekt (KN 219). Men Antarktis er totalt forskjellig.
Ut ifra de prikkede linjer som viser utstrålingstemperaturen på overflaten (idealisert til sort legeme) observeres fra hvilket nivå strålingen sendes ut (heltrukken linje). I de to øverste figurene synker temperaturen med høyden, hvilket minker effekten av utstrålingen med økt CO2.
Antarktis er det eneste stedet på kloden som er så kaldt mesteparten av året at temperaturen er varmere fra bakken og oppover i troposfæren. Derfor vil mer CO2 øke utstrålingen og avkjøle kontinentet. Den lille toppen oppover i midten av alle tre båndene skyldes at temperaturen i stratosfæren stiger med høyden over hele kloden og gir generelt økt utstråling.
Redusert vanndamp har også stor effekt. Med de særdeles lave temperaturer i Antarktis blir det svært lite vanndamp i atmosfæren over kontinentet. Dette medfører at stråling fra bakken i langt større grad går uhindret ut i verdensrommet enn i øvrige områder på kloden.
Forholdene i Antarktis
Det er viktig å forstå dette enorme kontinentet som er omgitt av hav med verdens kraftigste sirkumpolare havstrøm og tilhørende vinder. Dette skjermer kontinentet i betydelig grad selv om kystene påvirkes av forholdene i de tilstøtende store havområder Stillehavet, Atlanterhavet og Indiske hav, av det nærliggende Sør-Amerika, og av at verdens mest markante og aktive undersjøiske vulkankjede ligger i havet utenfor Vest-Antarktis. Også den alltid aktive Mt. Erebus i 3700 m høyde gir sitt særpreg bl.a. på ozonhullet (KN 76). Kontinentet domineres (90%) av den Øst-Antarktiske platå mens Vest-Antarktis utgjør 10% hvorav den Antarktiske halvøy opp mot Sør-Amerikas sørspiss dekker 3%. Høydene varierer mellom 2000-4000 m med nesten 2300 m i gjennomsnitt. Fordi Antarktis strekker seg mye lengre mot ekvator enn isen i Arktis vil økt refleksjon i sør mer enn kompensere for refleksjonstapet fra isreduksjon i nord (KN 106).
Konklusjon
Slike viktige arbeider omtales ikke av medier og politikere. Det er den ukjente «cherry picking» som IPCC-leiren baserer seg på. Og slik oppførsel er en hovedgrunn til at 53% av befolkningen ikke stoler på miljø og klimaforskning (Gallup 2017, KN 207).
Noter:
1. W. Chapman and J. Walsh 2007: A Synthesis of Antarctic Temperatures
2. H. Schmidthüsen et al 2015 How increasing CO2 leads to an increased negative greenhouse effect in Antarctica
3. S. Sejas et al 2018: Unmasking the negative greenhouse effect over the Antarctic Plateau.
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