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https://www.document.no/2022/06/17/prisbelont-klimaforsker-vi-har-ingen-klimakrise/
Prisbelønt klimaforsker: – Vi har ingen klimakrise
Lennart Bengtsson. Foto: Vogler / Wikimedia Commons.
Verden har ingen klimakrise, langt færre dør av ekstremvær nå enn før i tiden, og verdens matproduksjon øker, sier den svenske klimaforskeren Lennart Bengtsson, som er blitt prisbelønt to ganger for sitt arbeid.
Det er snarere krig og energimangel som skaper kriser, sier Bengtsson i et intervju med Die Welt, der han fastslår at kunnskap er den beste medisinen mot «klimaangst».
Bengtsson, som er spesialist på modellering av klimaet og været, var fra 1975 til 1990 først forskningssjef og siden direktør ved European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, og deretter direktør ved Max Planck-instituttet for meteorologi frem til han gikk av for aldersgrensen i år 2000. Siden den tid har han vært professor emeritus ved universitetet i Reading.
Den svenske forskeren mener at verden trenger klimatiltak:
Die Welt: Herr Bengtsson, lever vi i en klimakrise?
Lennart Bengtsson: Etter min mening bør ikke den pågående oppvarmingen betegnes som en krise. Matproduksjonen er for eksempel økende. Og til tross for raskt voksende befolkning og fortsatt oppvarming, er det mange færre mennesker som dør på grunn av ekstremvær enn tidligere. De akutte problemene i øyeblikket er forårsaket av konflikter og kriger og vanskeligheter med å finne pålitelige erstatninger for fossile energikilder raskt nok. Ikke desto mindre behøves det langsiktige, systematiske tiltak for å redusere verdens utslipp av drivhusgasser for å begrense oppvarmingen.
Likevel virker han mer redd for klimapolitikken som rent faktisk føres enn for klimaet selv: Paris-avtalen kan skape alvorlige økonomiske problemer for Europa, mener Bengtsson.
Bør Paris-avtalen om verdens klima være en rettesnor for begrensningen av CO2-utslippene?
Etter min mening er Paris-målene altfor ambisiøse, særlig for EU, og de burde tilpasses det som er teknisk mulig for å unngå alvorlige og akutte problemer for industrien og allmennheten.
Det finnes riktignok tegn til at et endret klima skaper visse problemer for eksempel med værforandringer, sier Bengtsson, men det finnes ingen klare beviser, og det er svært vanskelig å avgjøre i hvilken grad disse forandringene skyldes noe annet enn naturlige endringer, legger han til.
Han mener det er vanskelig å si noe sikkert om klimaendringers virkninger på samfunnet:
Kan klimavitenskapen gjøre robuste utsagn om hvordan samfunnet vil utvikle seg som følge av klimaendringer?
Jeg tror ikke det. Den samfunnsutviklingen som vi ser så tydelig nå for tiden, har ingenting med vær eller klima å gjøre, men med samfunnsmessige faktorer som politisk inkompetanse, konflikter og kriger. (…) Det er ikke så lett å få øye på noen klimaeffekt.
Bengtsson, som altså selv arbeider med klimamodellering, er heller ikke særlig optimistisk på denne modelleringbransjens evne til å forstå eller forutsi klimaendringene:
For å kunne påvise menneskets klimasignal, må den naturlige variasjonen være kjent. De har forklart at den naturlige klimavariasjonen ikke er godt nok forstått. Hva består problemene i?
De beste klimamodellene vi har nå, reproduserer typiske værsystemer temmelig bra, også typisk variabilitet som forandringer fra år til år. Vi har godt grunnlag for å konkludere med at de kaldere periodene på 1960- og 1970-tallet skyldtes tilfeldigheter. Vi er mindre sikre på den markante oppvarmingen mellom 1910 og 1940. Og det finnes fremdeles ingen troverdig forklaring på den lille istiden fra 1350 til 1850. Svingninger i klimaet på tidsskaler fra ett hundre til noen hundre år er ikke forstått, og de blir heller ikke godt reprodusert av dagens klimamodeller. På den annen side finnes det overbevisende empirisk belegg for at istidene har sammenheng med astronomiske sykluser i Jordens bane. Den globale oppvarmingen gjennom de siste 40–50 årene har derimot en klar sammenheng med drivhuseffekten, selv om det behøves en bedre vitenskapelig forståelse av de regionale forskjellene i oppvarmingen.
Men oppvarming er ikke bare negativ, legger han til. Jeg finner det vanskelig å akseptere at et varmere klima på høyere breddegrader er negativt, sier Bengtsson.
Den svenske klimaforskeren har ikke så høye tanker om den vitenskapelige standarden på feltet:
Er ikke klimaforskningen lenger uforutinntatt og åpen?
Mye mindre i dag enn for 20–40 år siden. Jeg frykter at de skarpeste vitenskapsfolkene i dag søker seg til andre felter, hvor vitenskapen er mer åpen.
Jeg frykter at den sterke politiseringen av klimadebatten har negative følger for grunnforskningen. Vitenskapsfolk er naturlig skeptiske og kritiske, men et resultat av politiseringen er at noen vitenskapsfolk nøler med å gripe fatt i temaer som noen universiteter og finansieringskilder anser som for kritiske til FNs klimapanel (IPCC).
Men det finnes uenighet om hvor raskt oppvarmingen skjer og hvor skadelige forandringene kan være. Det finnes ingen reell konsensus om hvorvidt vi har fått verre ekstremvær, langt mindre om årsaken til den lille istiden.
Unge mennesker som reagerer på klimaendringer med panikk, bør skaffe seg mer kunnskap om klimaet, fastslår Bengtsson. Jeg tror ikke dette lenger vil være noen stor sak om hundre år, avslutter han.
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