9. December 2023
Ukategorisert

Ro ned retorikken. Morten Jødal

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

Ro ned retorikken

Den politiske debatten er for hard, og overdriver ulikheter og problemer. Det skaper en polarisering som er farlig, og satsing på en klimapolitikk basert på frykt. Og resultatet: En verden som forbruker titusener av milliarder kroner, uten å oppnå noen som helst temperaturendring. 

Av Morten Jødal, styreleder Klimarealistene

Vi har vært gjennom noen turbulente døgn, etter stormingen av Den amerikanske kongressen. Denne politiske voldshandlingen er resultat av årevis med polarisert debatt, hvor partiene og de enkelte politikere – og svært mange andre som deltar i samfunnsdebatten – framstiller hverandre som demoner, udugelige sjarlataner, muslimhatere, kommunister eller fascister, eller for den saks skyld rasister eller snillister. Beskyldningene sitter løst, og er ofte stygge. De fyker i alle politiske retninger. Vi hører at det politiske establishment har fjernet seg fra folket, og utelukkende representerer egne interesser. Vi tror ikke lenger noen engasjerer seg til fellesskapets beste, for fellesskapets beste. Egeninteresser skal ligge bak. Det florerer med konspirasjonsteorier som ilegger både industri- og politiske ledere ansvar for å gjennomføre en global politikk som skal styre oss alle. Eller få kontroll med oss via strømmålerne og vaksine. Budskapene har vært framført og gjentatt så utallige ganger at mange henfaller til å tro på dem. Det til tross for at de er så overdrevne og usannsynlige at det burde være opplagt for absolutt alle, at de er gale. For valget i USA ble ikke rigget. Like lite som vi lever med en klimakrise. Men begge påstandene lar seg selge, dessverre til svært mange. Særlig når de gjentas mange nok ganger, av folk med autoritet. Og av mediene.

Vi ser rasende folkemengder skrike i gatene, brenne flagg og religiøse bøker, oppildne til vold og jakte på politiske motstandere. Vi ser mobben med sørstatsflagg trenge inn på Capitol Hill. Vi ser angrep på kirker og synagoger, vet at kristne knapt lenger kan leve i Egypt eller Iran, og har sett maskerte unge menn drepe de fleste i et satiremagasin. Vi vet vi kan miste livet om vi publiserer en tegning av Profeten. Vi hører debatter som ikke handler om sak og politisk analyse, som ikke har fokus på egen ideologi og løsninger, men utelukkende rettes som angrep på motstandere som skal være udugelige. Vi hører påstander om at en president kanskje ikke er født i USA, men i svarteste Afrika – og derfor ikke har noe å gjøre i Det hvite hus. Og stakkars den professor i astrofysikk som ut fra sine kunnskaper om sol og stråling fra verdensrommet våger å hevde at mye av klimaet er styrt av naturen. Han vil bli belært om både tobakksindustri og flat jord, og sannsynligvis bli innkalt til en samtale med både dekanus og rektor.

Alt dette er nedrig, men ikke minst farlig. Retorikken som anvendes, og beskyldningene som slynges ut, skaper splittelse og uvennskap. Og hat. Når presidenten oppildner sin milits til å marsjere mot kongressbygningen, fordi djevelen i form av demokratene har stjålet «hans valgseier», ruller prosessen videre. Når flere tusen har satt seg i bevegelse, bevæpnet med løgner, skytevåpen, pepperspray, sørstatsflagg og tunge støvler, har det for lengst gått galt. For bak hordene på vei mot sperringene, ligger årevis med hatefulle ytringer, elendige analyser og sanseløse overdrivelser, som har skapt splittelse. Og forskrudde virkelighetsforståelser. Det er bygget opp gjennom mange flere år enn det har eksistert en gal tweet-president. Men han har sannelig helt bensin på bålet.

Det er så unødvendig
For vi kan spørre oss; er virkelig de politiske løsningene som demokrater og republikanere representerer så forskjellige at familier skal splittes, og knapt kan feire julaften sammen? Og heller ikke treffes under sommerferien på Hawaii? Er det slik at et svakt annerledes syn på hvordan staten skal regulere våre liv, med eller uten en offentlig helseordning, noen prosenter forskjeller i skattetrykk, en liten forskjell i synet på innvandring, eller i hvor stor grad landet skal skaffe olje og gass gjennom frakturering – være av en så prinsipiell karakter at sympatisører i det andre partiet må oppfattes som representanter for de djevelske makter? Som vil gjennomføre en politikk som er ond, og ikke vil ta vare på de kommende generasjoner? For det er slik debatten går. Folk er virkelig bitre fiender, i noe som egentlig burde handle om nyanser av løsninger innen en demokratisk ramme.

Noe har altså gått galt i store deler av samfunnsdebatten. Noen har klart å disproporsjonere uenighet, og det samme har de gjort med de utfordringene verden står ovenfor. De har oppskalert meningsforskjeller og problemer, overdrevet dem, gjentatt dem, og hamret dem inn i form av propaganda: Biden og valgkommisjonene stjal valgseieren. Og verden står ovenfor et snarlig klimatisk sammenbrudd. Vippepunktet er noen få år foran oss. Dramatikken kommer fra alle kanter. Som et resultat utformes synet på annerledes tenkende som hat, mens frykten blir politikkens viktigste drivkraft. Og frykt er intet godt grunnlag for politiske beslutninger. Det er heller ikke manglende kritisk sans – ett av det mest alvorlige hull også innen utdanningssektoren.

Det er mange skyldige i denne utviklingen. Den politiske debatten handler om å score billige retoriske poenger: ditt parti ønsker et «sorteringssamfunn», hvor ansatte i helsevesenet går rundt med stoppeklokke. Eller: din ideologi tar ikke hensyn til kommende generasjoner, og representerer en «laissez -faire»-politikk. Etter dere kommer syndfloden. Mediene elsker denne polariseringen, og dyrker den. Staten lønner en hel skog av ansatte i frivillige organisasjoner til å fôre disse ytringene inn i samfunnsdebatten. Skal man bli lagt merke til, må man ta hardt i. Og det gjør de. Samtidig er mediene opptatt av dramatikk, konflikt, dommedag og dystre framtidsperspektiver. Framfor undergangen står vi visstnok omgitt av røde, blå og grønne djevler. De gis ubegrenset tilgang til mediene.

Den norske debatten er mer sivilisert, sier du
Ja, kanskje. Vi ser Debatten på NRK med dyktige Fredrik Solvang, og lytter til norske politikere og fagfolk. De får fram nyanser, og klarer å framføre et budskap om egen ideologi, politikk, og løsninger. De oppfører seg anstendig, og virker kunnskapsrike. Slik er det imidlertid sikkert også i de fleste andre land: det finnes lyspunkter.

Samtidig vet vi at det finnes titusener av barn og unge der ute, som skrikende holder opp plakater: Du kommer til å dø gammel av dage. Jeg kommer til å dø av klimaendringer. Forestillingen har de lært på skolen, og er hentet fra lærebøkene. Deres lærere har messet det. De har også lest det i avisene. Og de har hørt Audun Lysbakken fortelle i siste valgkamp: «Vi står i en eksistensiell krise». De har også hørt MDG hevde at «kloden brenner», og at livets bibliotek har tatt fyr. Og de vet at norske kommuner har vedtatt at vi lever med en «klimakrise», en påstand som savner enhver empiri. Med hånden på hjertet vet alle at den påståtte krisen ikke eksisterer, rett og slett fordi ingen hverken kan observere eller dokumentere den. Forskere i FNs klimapanel har heller aldri påstått den. IPCC beskriver en varmere verden, som vil representere både fordeler og ulemper, men de snakker ikke om verdens undergang. Det har noen andre funnet på. De som hevder at «vitenskapen er entydig», farer med løgn.

Alt vi vet om verdens tilstand, forteller at folk vil leve lenger og lenger. De vil bli rikere og rikere. Også fattige land og fattige mennesker vil i tiårene framover oppleve bedrede livsvilkår. Alle vil få bedre helsetilbud, et tilstrekkelig kaloriinntak, tilgang til rent vann og bedre utdanning. De vil få bedre hus, og dermed økt motstandskraft mot en natur som alltid vil buldre ned over dem. Mer velstående land vil være bedre i stand til å ta vare på sine innbyggere, bygge diker mot havet eller flomstore elver, sette opp varslingssystemer og bygge steder hvor folk kan søke ly under flommer og orkaner. De vil gå den veien Nederland og Bangladesh har gjort. I en rikere verden vil vi alle kunne tilpasse oss bedre, mot en ubarmhjertig natur. Det er på ingen måte slik at dagens unge vil dø av klimaendringer. De vil snarere bli mye eldre. Å innpode dem slike vrangforestillinger, burde være kriminalisert.

Samtidig er det slik at rikere land forurenser mindre. Verdens største miljøproblem har alltid vært forurensning. Gjennom mange år har innendørs røyk vært det mest alvorlige problemet, som har drept millioner. Tilgang til strøm fra nettet, eller ren gass, har ført til en kraftig reduksjon av fattige mennesker som dør av skitten inneluft. Samtidig har rike land nesten sluttet å forurense luften utendørs. Når fattige land blir rikere, vil de følge etter.

Miljø- og klimadebatten er ute av proporsjoner – og preges av enorme overdrivelser. Den domineres av skremsler, og frykt. Den får barn og unge til å tro at de snart skal dø. Vi må tone ned denne retorikken, og fortelle den oppvoksende slekt at de snarere vil leve lenger og bedre, med et rikere miljø rundt seg. Alle barn og unge lever i dag med et mye større biologisk mangfold i sine omgivelser, enn deres tipp-tipp-tipp-oldeforeldre. De lever med renere luft, og renere vann. På ingen måte er det slik at vi står ved noe vippepunkt, som enkelte forskere alltid vil hevde – og mediene elske å formidle. Vi har hørt disse dommedagsprofetiene utallige ganger. De har alltid vært gale. Alltid.

Ingen person messet dette budskapet tydeligere enn Stanford-økologen Paul Ehrlich. Han var elsket av TV-programskaperen Johnny Carson, og gjennom programmet Tonight Show ble den amerikanske befolkning tutet ørene fulle av fortellinger om at planeten sto på kanten av et sammenbrudd. Ikke minst skulle det skyldes flere mennesker, som brukte opp klodens ressurser, og forurenset den i stykker. På CBS nasjonale nyheter i 1970 fortalte han at verden ville ta slutt før 1985. «En eller annen gang i løpet av de neste 15 år vil slutten komme. Og med «slutten» mener jeg et sammenbrudd i den evnen planeten har til å legge til rette for menneskeheten». Andre innflytelsesrike akademikere var enige om at slutten var nær, og de var kun uenige om når tidspunktet ville inntreffe. Noen mente så lite som fem år, andre strakk seg til tretti. Og mediene hoppet på disse historiene. Life magazine rapporterte for eksempel i 1970 at «skrekken ligger på vent», og at «den urbane befolkning må bruke gassmasker for å overleve luftforurensningen» før ti år har gått. Som biologistudent på Universitetet i Oslo, hørte jeg akkurat den samme fortellingen.

Advarslene var imidlertid fullstendig gale. Ehrlich forutså at mellom én og to milliarder mennesker ville dø av sult i løpet av 1970-årene. Han bommet med mer enn 99 prosent. Han hevdet at forventet livslengde i Amerika i 1980 ville være 42 år. På dette tidspunkt viste den seg å være 74 år. Folk i Los Angeles hadde intet behov for gassmasker, men pustet i stedet lettere på 1980-tallet på grunn av katalysatorer i biler, andre teknologiske nyvinninger, og strengere miljøreguleringer. Verden tok ikke slutt.

Den apokalyptiske retorikken gjorde imidlertid betydelig skade. Dersom verden begynte å bli overbefolket, var konklusjonen fra politikere og forskere at det var nødvendig å få færre barn, og særlig fattige. Befolkningskontroll ble sett på som «den eneste salige løsningen for den underutviklede verden», slik Ehrlich uttrykte det. Noen forskere begynte å se på tilsetning av kjemikalier i drikkevannet eller i basisføden, slik at verdens fattige midlertidig ville bli sterile. Det gav også legitimitet til kampanjer fra myndigheter, som inkluderte tvungen sterilisering og tvangsaborter. Bare i løpet av ett år, i 1976, tvangssteriliserte den indiske regjeringen 6,2 millioner menn.

Ideen om at verden sto på kanten av et irreversibelt sammenbrudd som skyldtes sult, åpnet også for at noen ledende miljøvernere foreslo at man skulle slutte med matvarebistand til hele land eller regioner. Tanken var at fortsatt matvarehjelp ville føre til flere barnefødsler, hvor de nyfødte senere ville dø i hungerskatastrofer. Ehrlich argumenterte derfor at menneskehetens mest håpefulle scenario var å kutte ut matvarehjelp til Vietnam, Thailand, Egypt og India, og så lene seg tilbake og se på mens sult og opptøyer tok livet av en halv milliard mennesker. Lidelsene som ville ha oppstått, ville vært enorme. En slik politikk ble ikke gjennomført. I stedet lyttet verden til Norman Borlaug, som gjennom den grønne revolusjonen foreslo en vei basert på innovasjon og forbedrede landbruksteknikker. Slik økte man matvareproduksjonen, og unngikk langt på vei sultkatastrofer. Ehrlich´s tilnærming er sannsynligvis det mest avskyelige eksemplet i moderne historie på en dårlig politikk, som stammet fra ubegrunnede, apokalyptiske bekymringer.

Klimafiksing og rådyr symbolpolitikk
I våre dager forestiller noen forskere seg at vi står framfor et klimasammenbrudd. De fantaserer om å ingeniøre vekk et hevdet eksistensielt klimaproblem, gjennom å tilføre atmosfæren svovel. Eller salt. Det skal redusere solinnstrålingen, eller skape skyer. Med den virkelighetsoppfatningen svært mange har om en kommende klimakatastrofe, hvor politikere, næringslivet og frivillige organisasjoner skal frelse verden, er det ikke godt å vite: vil de denne gangen lykkes med en gal-gal miljøpolitikk, basert på en forskrudd virkelighetsoppfatning?

Eller skal verden bare rote bort opp mot halvannet oljefond i året, for å innfri Paris-avtalen – som dersom IPCCs klimamodeller skulle vise seg å være riktige – innebærer at man i år 2100 senker temperaturøkningen med 0,027 grader C? Går de denne veien skal de huske at utryddelse av ekstrem fattigdom er beregnet å koste rundt 940 milliarder kroner i året. For litt mer enn et månedsforbruk av satsingen som følger Parisavtalen, kunne verden i stedet fjerne den mest ekstreme nød og fattigdom. Men det prioriterer ikke verdens ledere.

Dette er de misantrope sidene av klimapolitikken. Denne satsingen, er det regjeringen leverte det norske bidraget til, fredag den 8. januar.

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