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Skyldes nesten all global oppvarming mennesker?
- februar 5, 2021
- 14:40
- Morten Jødal
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk
- Stikkord: CO2-utslipp, Klimaendringer, Naturlig variasjon, Planetene og klimaet, Solen
Den 21. januar hadde Teknisk Ukeblad en artikkel hvor Cicero-forskeren Bjørn Samseth hevdet at nesten all global oppvarming skyldes mennesker. NTB spredte den videre. Men det er solsystemet som rår over endringer i global temperatur. Vi mennesker rår over miljø og økosystemer. Gjør vi det på en god måte, kan naturen tilpasse seg endringer som alltid kommer.
Artikkelen nedenfor sto opprinnelig i Sunnmørsposten den 9. juni 2017. Den passer godt som et svar til Samseth.
Av professor emeritus Harald Yndestad, NTNU Ålesund
Vår oppfatning av solen preger vår forståelse av klimaet. Stråling av varme fra solen har siden Aristoteles vært betraktet som konstant. Da Galileo rettet sin nye kikkert mot solen, og oppdaget han imidlertid at solen hadde svarte flekker.
Solflekkene endret seg over tid, og varslet en aktiv sol. Antall solflekker ble til en dataserie, som viste at de kom i perioder på ca. 11 år. Det var altså noe forutsigbart i naturen, som styrte aktiviteten på solen.
På 1800-tallet la en også merke til at det var en sammenheng mellom kalde klimaperioder, og perioder uten solflekker. Det var et varsel om at varmen fra solen ikke er konstant. Solen kan ha påført oss kaldere klimaperioder, kalde perioder som kan komme tilbake.
I den senere tid har iskjerneprøver fra Grønland gitt oss en ny generasjon dataserier som over flere tusen år viser endringer i temperatur og stråling fra solen. Kalde klimaperioder med redusert stråling fikk navn som: Oort (1010-1070), Wolf (1270-1340), Spörer (1490-1550), Maunder (1640–1720) og Dalton (1790-1820).
Det tydet på en aktiv sol, som kontrollerer kalde og varme klimaperioder. Endringene i solaktiviteten i den senere tid varselet en mulig ny kald klimaperiode, kanskje allerede om noen få 10-år. En Maunder-periode tilsvarende 1600-tallet, eller en Dalton-periode, tilsvarende 1800-tallet.
Klima og konstant sol
Solflekker forteller noe om aktiviteten på solens overflate. Varme til jorden tilføres via elektromagnetisk stråling. Satellittbasert måling av stråling fra solen startet først i 1979. Etter noen år med målinger var det tilgjengelig en kort satellittbasert dataserie med direkte stråling fra solen.
Målingene ble tilpasset en statistisk modell (lineær regresjon), trolig for å redusere usikkerheten. Men en slik modell skiller ikke mellom måleusikkerhet og naturlige variasjoner. Resultatet ble registrering av en tilnærmet konstant stråling fra solen.
Målingene ble forlenget bakover til 1800-tallet, og vi fikk en dataserie (PMOD) som viste en tilnærmet konstant stråling fra solen. I klimapanelets 5. rapport fra 2013 fremgår det at solen fra 1890 har endret global temperatur mellom 0 og 0.1 grader. Altså en konstant sol, som i læren fra Aristoteles. Økning i global temperatur var i samme periode ca. 0.9 grader. Når solen er konstant, og global temperatur stiger med ca. 0.9 grader, er det noe som ikke stemmer. Spørsmålet var, hvor kunne denne varmen komme fra? Forklaringen ble at veksten i global temperatur på 0.9 grader mest sannsynlig er menneskeskapt. Forårsaket av klimagassen CO2.
Målinger fra 1960 viste at det i samme periode hadde vært en sam-menheng mellom vekst i CO2, og vekst i global temperatur. Om veksten i CO2 fortsetter, vil denne sporgassen kunne drive opp global temperatur med 2 grader fram til 2050 og 4 grader fram til 2100. Vi fikk så forestillingen om at en kan regulere global temperatur, ved å regulere utslipp av CO2. Men ser en litt nærmere på dataseriene for stråling fra solen, global temperatur og CO2, ser vi er at det er solen varmer opp havet, og at oppvarming av havet fører til mer CO2.
Klima og variabel sol
Hypotesen om global oppvarming vokste fram i kraft av at vi manglet en samlet forståelse av årsaken til naturlige klimaendringer. Samtidig vokste det fram en gryende skepsis. En skepsis forankret i at klimapolitikken stolte mer på modeller av naturen, enn på reelle målinger av naturen.
Iskjerneprøver viste spor etter en aktiv sol og store temperaturvariasjoner over tusen år. En ny dataserie (ACRIM) over direkte stråling fra solen, uten justering av satellittdata, viste en variabel sol med variasjoner på ca. 0.3 % over 300 år. En variabel sol som kunne forklare variasjoner i global temperatur over flere hundre år.
Iskjerneprøver fra Grønland viste at mottatt strålingen fra solen har periodiske endringer over flere tusen år.
Spørsmålet var så hva som kan være kilden til periodene. Kan det være en underliggende årsakenes årsak, som påvirket stråling fra solen og som påvirker klimaet på jorden?
I 2014 starta vi ved NTNU i Ålesund et arbeid for å analysere helt nye dataserier for stråling og solflekker fra solen. Et arbeid som ble publisert i tidsskriftet New Astronomy i 2016. Denne undersøkelsen viste, for første gang, at stråling fra solen har forutsigbare perioder, styrt av de fire store planetene: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus og Neptun.
Forklaringen er at gravitasjon fra planetene påvirker sirkulasjonen i solens indre dynamo. Solens indre dynamo påvirker stråling fra solens overflate, som leverer stråling til jorden.
Skal en beregne gode prognoser for framtiden, må en ta utgangspunkt i noe forutsigbart. Med nye dataserier over stråling fra solen og forutsigbare perioder fra de fire store planetene, kunne en forklare de kalde klimaperiodene over 1000 år, og hvorfor vi fikk et gradvis varmere klima fra 1800-tallet. De nye dataseriene for stråling fra solen over 300 og 1000 år, viste samtidig at vi framover mot 2050 kan forvente en periode med gradvis mindre stråling fra solen. En «kaldere sol». Kanskje til det nivået vi hadde på 1800-tallet.
Naturen rår
På 1800-tallet studerte George H Darwin (sønn av Charles) dataserier over målt havnivå utenfor London.
Han fant da at lange perioder i solsystemet hadde makt over tidevannet, og startet samtidig diskusjonen om månens kunne påvirke klimaet. I 1960-årene kom datamaskiner med en ny generasjon metoder for å undersøke klimadataserier. Man fant da klimaet ikke hadde helt tilfeldige endringer over tid. Klimaet var påvirket av kjente astronomiske perioder med referanser til månen, solen og solsystemet.
I de senere år er har leting etter olje gitt oss en ny generasjon metoder for å analysere lange dataserier. Med nye metoder kan nå vi nå studere mer i detalj hvordan klimaet følger endringer i stråling fra solen og tidevann styrt av månen. Videre hvordan periodene brer seg i havstrømmer, hvordan de påvirker nedbør og utbredelse av arktisk is, og hvordan de påvirker økosystemer.
Når klimaet påvirkes av solsystemet, får det også likhetstrekk med tidevannsperiodene til Georg H Darwin. Varme og kalde perioder følger hverandre, i perioder fra timer til tuseners av år.
Det er altså solsystemet som rår over endringer global temperatur. Det menneskene rår over, er miljø og økosystemer. Rår en her på en god måte, kan naturen selv tilpasse seg de endringene som alltid kommer.
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