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Solen har et rekordlavt aktivitetsnivå. Det får forskere til å reagere
Solaktivitet
LAV AKTIVITET: Sola har rekordlav aktivitet i 2020. Foto: Wikipedia
Sammenligner det lave aktivitetsnivået med mini-istiden i 1645.
Det er nær dommedagsstemning i enkelte amerikanske aviser.
Sola vår har gått i dvale, skriver New York Post, og melder om iskaldt vær, jordskjelv og hungersnød.
Forbes melder at vi i 2020 har hatt 100 dager med null solflekker, og at 2020 er det andre året på rad med rekordlav aktivitet fra sola.
Sola har vært «blank», altså uten solflekker, 76 prosent av dagene så langt i 2020. I 2019 var sola blank 77 prosent av dagene. Stillere enn det har det ikke vært på soloverflaten siden 1950-tallet.
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– Veldig spesielt
Skal vi tro norske forskere er imidlertid ikke virkeligheten like dramatisk, selv om det ikke er noen tvil om at solen sitt aktivitetsnivå er det laveste vi har sett på veldig lenge.
– Det er uvanlig stille på solsiden akkurat nå. Den blanke og polerte solskiven vi ser nå for tiden er veldig spesielt. Men så har også sola vært ganske spesiell bakover i tid, og vi har hatt tidligere perioder med lite aktivitet også. Sola går i sykluser, forklarer Oddbjørn Engvold til Nettavisen.
Han er professor emeritus ved Institutt for teoretisk astrofysikk ved Universitetet i Oslo og ekspert innen solfysikk.
Solflekker er en indikasjon på solas aktivitet, og bidrar blant annet til strålingsutbrudd, og såkalte masseutbrudd.
Disse solflekkene har blitt telt og registrert nøye helt siden 1715, forklarer han. Dermed vet vi mye om aktiviteten, og syklusene sola går i. Sola beveger seg alltid mellom maksimumer og minimumer, med en gjennomsnittstid på 11,2 år.
Nå ser vi imidlertid to år med rekordlav aktivitet etter hverandre, som kan tyde på at vi er på vei inn i en dyp minimumstid, melder Forbes.
– Det er litt uvanlig stille nå for tiden, men aktiviteten øker nok igjen om en stund, sier Engvold.
Denne lenken oppdateres daglig, og viser hva som til enhver tid kan observeres på solskiven. Det gule bildet øverst i midten, er tatt i såkalt hvitt lys. Det demonstrerer tydelig at den nå er uten solflekker og tegn på solaktivitet.
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Frykter hungersnød
Ifølge New York Post frykter NASA at dette kan føre til en gjentakelse av perioden Dalton Minimum, som inntraff fra 1790 til 1830.
I den perioden var det også veldig lav aktivitet på solas overflate, noe som førte til at jordas temperatur falt med én grad. Det skal blant annet ha ført til tap av avlinger og hungersnød.
Nyere forskning viser imidlertid at en økning i vulkanske utbrudd også kan være noe av årsaken til temperaturfallet, og at den lave solaktiviteten dermed ikke hadde hele skylden.
Bakover i tid har det imidlertid vært flere episoder med såkalt minimum-aktivitet. Den mest kjente er perioden mellom 1645 til 1715, også kjent som den lille istiden.
Klimaforsker Bjørn Samset er ikke bekymret for solas manglende aktivitet.
– Variasjonene vi ser i klimaet grunnet slike aktive og slappe perioder er veldig svake egentlig. De kan være viktige dersom det ikke skjedde noe annet i klimasystemet, og det får virke over lang tid. Skulle den derimot gå inn i en lang og slapp periode, kunne vi i løpet av noen tiår sett lengre vintre og ting som det, sier han til Nettavisen.
Han forteller at han selv er redd for hungersnød, men ikke på grunn av solas aktivitetsmønstre.
– Siden 70-tallet har jorda blitt 0,2 grader varmere hvert eneste tiår. Det er femti år med veldig jevn oppvarming. Jeg er veldig bekymret for hungersnød, men ikke på grunn av sola. Jeg er bekymret på grunn av klimaendringene og global oppvarming.
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Sårbare for endringer
Langset påpeker at klimaforskere forsker mye på sola, men at de ikke ser de store effektene av den på klimanivå, sammenlignet med andre påvirkninger.
Likevel mener han at hungersnøden under den lille istiden lærte oss hvor sårbare vi mennesker er for klimaforandringene.
– Om det er en ting vi lærte av den lille istiden, så er det hvor sårbare vi er for små endringer i klimaet. Det viste hvor lite som skal til for at vi blir påvirket når sommeren og vinteren forandrer seg. Det forteller oss hvor bekymret vi bør være for de endringene som skjer i klimaet nå, for de er mye mer alvorlig enn mini-istiden, sier Samset.
Endringene i sola er altså verken Langset eller Engvold bekymret for. Men, det er liten tvil om at det er et spesielt fenomen.
– Det er spesielt og interessant, men jeg er ikke spesielt bekymret. Det er vanskelig å si hva de langvarige effektene kan bli, avslutter Engvold.
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