by FRA:
https://no.frwiki.wiki/wiki/S%C3%A9cheresses_en_Californie
Tørke i California
Gjennom historien har California opplevd mange tørker , som 1841, 1864, 1924, 1928–1935, 1947–1950, 1959–1960, 1976–1977, 1986–1992, 2006–2010 og 2011–2019. Den mest folkerike staten i USA og en stor landbruksprodusent, tørke i California, kan ha alvorlige økonomiske og miljømessige konsekvenser. Tørke kan utelukkende skyldes eller være forbundet med værforhold; økonomiske eller politiske handlinger; befolkning og jordbruk.
Årsaker
Vann i California forvaltes veldig tett, med et omfattende nettverk av rørledninger som betjener de mest folkerike og tørrere områdene i staten. Nedbør er begrenset, med det store flertallet av regn og snøfall i vintermånedene i den nordlige delen av staten. Denne delikate balansen betyr at en tørr regntid kan få varige konsekvenser.
Mangel på ny infrastruktur
Svært få store hydrauliske prosjekter har blitt bygget siden 1979, til tross for at befolkningen har doblet seg siden det året.
Ineffektive distribusjonssystemer
Fordi mye av Californias vannsystem er avhengig av et pumpesystem for å flytte vann fra nord til sør, går store mengder vann ofte tapt til Stillehavet under vinterstormer når strømmen av elven overstiger kapasiteten til pumpene. Dette kompliseres ytterligere av miljøregler som begrenser pumping i visse måneder av året, for å beskytte vandrende fisk. I 2015 vann året , 11,6 m3 vann krysset Sacramento – San Joaquin elvedelta, men bare 2,3 km3 ble gjenfunnet i vannledningsnett.
Reservoarkapasitet forbeholdt flomkontroll
De fleste av Californias store reservoarer betjener viktige flomkontrollfunksjoner. På grunn av den begrensede kapasiteten til elvekanaler og damutløp, kan magasiner ikke tømmes raskt før store stormer. Dette begrenser kapasiteten til en tank som kan brukes til langvarig lagring. Reservoarer i California er designet for å kontrollere flom fra regn, flom fra snøsmelting eller begge deler.
I kystnære og sørlige deler av staten og mye av Sacramento River- systemet kommer den største trusselen fra flom på grunn av regn i regntiden november-april. Oceaniske “ Atmospheric River ” eller Pineapple Express stormer kan generere massiv nedbør over kort tid (ofte opptil 50 prosent av den totale årlige nedbøren i noen få stormer). Dette krever å opprettholde en viss sikkerhetsmargin i tankene, som ofte ikke får kapasitet før slutten av april eller mai. Shasta Lake , Californias største reservoar, er begrenset til omtrent 71 prosent av kapasiteten om vinteren for å kontrollere flom fra regn. Diker langs elver i Nord-California, som Sacramento og American Rivers, er sjenerøst store nok til å passere store mengder flomvann.
I San Joaquin River Basin ( San Joaquin Valley ) og andre områder av staten hvor snøpakken er den primære kilden til elvestrømning, er elvekanalene dimensjonert først og fremst for å kontrollere snøsmelteflommene, som ikke produserer de enorme toppene som er typiske for regn flom, men er lengre og har et mye høyere totalvolum. Som et resultat har magasiner i denne regionen svært strenge begrensninger på mengden vann som kan slippes ut. Et eksempel på et reservoar som drives for snøflom er Pine Flat Lake nær Fresno, som er begrenset til rundt 53 prosent kapasitet til våren for å fange sommersnøsmelting. Imidlertid er Pine Flat og andre reservoarer i San Joaquin ofte ineffektive til å kontrollere flom fra regn fordi de ikke kan slippe vann raskt nok mellom vinterstormene.
Deler av staten, spesielt i det sentrale Sierra Nevada, er utsatt for flom fra regn og snø. Reservoarer som Lake Oroville og Lake Folsom må svare på et bredere utvalg av avrenningsforhold. Lake Oroville er generelt begrenset til 79–89 prosent av vinterkapasiteten og Folsom Lake til 33–60 prosent. Disse verdiene blir ofte justert opp og ned avhengig av mengden regn og snøvarsel. På grunn av reservoarets lille størrelse er det vanskelig å balansere behovet for vinterflomkontrollplass med behovet for å lagre vann til sommeren. Dette resulterer ofte i manglende fylling av innsjøen på grunn av svakere snøsmelting enn forventet. Vannforvaltere og hydrologieksperter kritiserte de utdaterte og altfor konservative driftskriteriene for Folsom Dam, med henvisning til forbedret værvarsling og teknologi for måling av snøpakker.
Fremskritt i prognosemetoder har gjort det mulig for noen californiske reservoarer, som Lake Mendocino, å fungere mer effektivt eller “intelligent” . Hvis det forventes tørt vær, kan vann lagres over den lovlige grensen for flomkontroll, i stedet for å bli kastet bort nedstrøms. Dette programmet er kjent som “ Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations ”. I tillegg vil kapitalforbedringer som oversvømmelsesprosjektet på 900 millioner dollar ved Folsom Dam tillate større fleksibilitet i vannutslipp, noe som gjør det tryggere å opprettholde et høyt reservoarnivå under prosessen.
Værsykluser
California har et av de mest varierte klimaene i noen amerikansk stat og opplever ofte veldig våte år etterfulgt av ekstremt tørre år. Statens magasiner har ikke tilstrekkelig kapasitet til å balansere vannforsyningen mellom våte og tørre år.
El Niño og La Niña har ofte vært assosiert med våte og tørre sykluser i henholdsvis California ( El Niño-hendelsen fra 1982 til 1983 , en av de sterkeste i historien, forårsaket rekordnedbør i staten), men nylige klimadata viser blandede bevis for et slikt forhold delvis på grunn av den økende virkningen av menneskeskapt global oppvarming. Den veldig våte sesongen 2010–2011 skjedde i en sterk fase av La Niña, mens El Niño-hendelsen 2014–16 , som oversteg 1982–83 i intensitet, ikke førte til en merkbar økning i nedbør i staten.
Den nordamerikanske tørken 2012-2015 var forårsaket av forholdene for den arktiske oscillasjonen og den nordatlantiske oscillasjonen som ryddet de amerikanske stormene vinteren 2011-2012.
Klima forandringer
I følge NOAAs tørkeoppgave fra 2014 er ikke tørken en del av en langsiktig endring i nedbør, og er et symptom på naturlig variasjon, selv om rekordtemperaturen som fulgte den siste tørken kan ha blitt forsterket. På grunn av menneskeskapt global oppvarming. Dette ble bekreftet av en vitenskapelig studie fra 2015 som anslår at global oppvarming utgjorde 8 til 27% av tørkeanomalien observert i 2012-2014. Selv om naturlig variasjon dominerer, har antropogen oppvarming dramatisk økt den generelle sannsynligheten for ekstrem tørke i California.
Svingninger som er stadig mer dramatiske i det kaliforniske klimaet, er observert i xix – tallet. I 2015 hadde California sin svakeste snøbagge på minst 500 år; 2012-2015 var den tørreste perioden i minst 1200 år. Imidlertid var vinteren 2016-17 den våteste på rekord i Nord-California, og overgikk den forrige rekorden som ble satt i 1982-1983. I, Shasta, Oroville og Folsom vann samtidig vann i havet for å bekjempe flom. Lake Oroville sølte ut på nødutløpet for første gang på 48 år, etter at hovedutløpet ble skadet , noe som resulterte i midlertidig evakuering av 200 000 mennesker. Den kombinerte tilstrømningen til innsjøene Shasta, Oroville og Folsomvar 0,942,929 km3. To dager senere var den kombinerte flomkontrollutgivelsen 0,456 71 km3. Dette vannet ville ha vært verdt 370 millioner dollar til kommunale tariffer i Los Angeles County.
Kompleksitet av vannrettigheter
Uten endringer i vannforbruket ville det ta omtrent seks tørre år å tømme statens magasiner.
Store forbrukere av vann
Cirka 6,3 km3 brukes årlig i California til husdyrfôr .
I tillegg ble det fra 2008 til 2015 frigitt mer enn 3,0 km3 (0,37 km3 per år) i San Francisco Bay for å redde 36 smelter fra deltaet . Et alternativ, saltholdighetsbarrierer, blir installert.
Tilbud og etterspørsel
Vann i California kan være dyrt. Dette fører til bevissthet om utfordringene med vannforvaltning.
I regnrike stater og land som ikke er utsatt for tørke, forvaltes vann, som andre steder, etter samtykke fra regjeringen, som forutsetter eierskap og forvaltning av alle elver, innsjøer og planlegger fritt strømmende vann innenfor sine parametere. Vann som brukes til kommersielle formål, slik som Nestlés 72 merker av flaskevann , brukes bare i den grad det er tillatt og gitt av myndighetene. I det siste har innbyggerne kjempet mot “tyveri” av dyrebare ressurser ved å motsette seg og ikke tillate etablering av enorme vannuttaksanlegg. I noen tilfeller har grunnvannstabeller falt fra 100 til 400 til 600 fot dype, og i hovedsak isolert de fleste private brønneiere fra sine egne vannkilder.
Orange County jobber mot vannuavhengighet ved å bygge verdens største indirekte resirkuleringsprosjekt for drikkevann – grunnvannspåfyllingssystemet. Poseidon Water utvikler også et avsaltingsanlegg for sjøvann i Huntington Beach for Orange County, og har allerede bygget og driver et saltvannssaltingsanlegg i Carlsbad for San Diego County. Kombinert vil de to plantene gi 100 millioner liter drikkevann per dag, nok vann til rundt 800 000 mennesker.
Kortsiktige effekter
Avrenningen fra nedbør som brukes til å støtte mange aspekter av Californias infrastruktur, som jordbruk og kommunal bruk, vil reduseres betydelig under tørke. Ettersom grunnvannet avtar med en mye lavere hastighet enn avrenning, vil mangelen på avrenning føre til økt pumping av grunnvann for å møte kravene til vannbehovet. Hvis grunnvann pumpes med en høyere hastighet enn det kan etterfylles med nedbør, vil grunnvannsnivået begynne å synke, og vannkvaliteten vil også synke. Når det er sagt, bidrar forholdet mellom overflatevann og grunnvann til det hydrologiske systemet, og grunnvann bidrar til å opprettholde strømmen av overflatevann i lengre perioder med tørke. Med reduksjon av begge kildene vil kvaliteten og tilgjengeligheten av vann reduseres.
Langtidseffekt
Overdreven pumping av grunnvann og uttømming av akviferer vil føre til nedsenking av jorden og permanent tap av grunnvannslagring. Reduksjonen i grunnvannsnivået fører til eksponering av lagringsområder for grunnvann, noe som vil føre til manglende styrke i jordstrukturen og mulig innsynking hvis jorden over er tung nok. Det har allerede startet i deler av staten under den siste tørken. I kystsamfunn kan overdreven pumping av vann føre til inntrenging av sjøvann , noe som betyr at sjøvann vil begynne å strømme til underjordiske vannlagringsområder som er drenert av overdreven pumping. Dette kan føre til en reduksjon i vannkvaliteten og føre til en kostbar avsalting for å rense vannet før distribusjon. Vann strømmer gjennom naturreservater og nasjonalparker kan reduseres eller stoppe sammen på grunn av avtagende overflate og grunnvann. California Water Science Center er en del av et team som prøver å gjenopprette og opprettholde vannstrømmen i disse områdene i fare. Med reduksjon i vannføring og økning i vind eller tørt vær øker risikoen for skogbranner; lynnedslag eller utilsiktede menneskelige feil kan føre til store skogbranner på grunn av det tørrere enn normale klimaet.
Historiske tørke
Siden 1900 har de følgende tørre årene hatt mye under gjennomsnittlig nedbør.
- 1841
- 1863–64
- 1917–21
- 1922–26
- 1928–37
- 1943–51
- 1959–62
- 1976–77
- 1987–92
- 2006-2010
Tørke
1841
Tørken er så alvorlig at “en tørr Sonoma ble erklært helt uegnet for jordbruk”.
1863–1864
Denne tørken ble innledet av de kraftige flommene 1861–62.
1924
Denne tørken har oppmuntret bønder til å bruke vanning mer regelmessig. På grunn av det svingende kaliforniske klimaet er behovet for konstant vanntilgjengelighet avgjørende for bønder.
1929–1934
Oppstod under den beryktede Dust Bowl- perioden som herjet slettene i USA på 1920- og 1930-tallet. Central Valley-prosjektet startet på 1930-tallet som svar på tørke.
1950-tallet
Bidratt til opprettelsen av State Water Project .
1976–77
Tørrere år i statens historie til dags dato. I følge Los Angeles Times ,
“Tørke på 1970-tallet ansporet tiltak for bevaring av byene og statens tørkeberedskap vannbank kom ut av tørke på 1980-tallet”
.
Ettersom tørkeforutsigelsen for det meste er tilfeldig og som svar på de siste årene med alvorlig tørke, engasjerte det amerikanske innenriksdepartementet, Office of Water Research and Technology i 1977 Entropy Limited for en utforskende studie av metodens anvendbarhet. Statistisk entropi minimax entropi minimax for multivariat statistisk dataanalyse til problemet med å bestemme den betingede sannsynligheten for tørke ett eller to år i fremtiden, er området av spesiell interesse California. Christensen et al. (1980) demonstrerer at en informasjonsteorimodell forutsier sannsynligheten for at nedbør vil være under eller over gjennomsnittet med beskjedne, men statistisk signifikante ferdigheter ett, to og til og med tre år fremover. Det var dette banebrytende arbeidet som oppdaget innflytelsen fra El Nino-Southern Oscillation på amerikanske værmeldinger.
1986–1992
En av de lengste tørkene i historien, sett fra slutten av 1986 til slutten av 1992. Tørken forverret seg i 1988 ettersom mye av USA også led av en kraftig tørke . I California endte den seks år lange tørken i slutten av 1992 med en betydelig El Niño-begivenhet i Stillehavet (og utbruddet av Mount Pinatubo i) sannsynligvis forårsaket uvanlig vedvarende kraftig regn.
2007–2009
12 th alvorlig tørke i statens historie og den første tørken som en nødsituasjon forkynnelsen over Sta temen test publisert. Tørken 2007–2009 reduserte også vannledninger fra det offentlige vannprosjektet betydelig. Sommeren 2007 ser noen av de verste brannene i Sør-California historie .
2011–2016
Den lengste tørken i California, på , i 340 uker.
Perioden mellom slutten av 2011 og 2014 var den tørreste i California-historien siden journalføring begynte. I, en undersøkelse av statsboere utført av Field Poll, fant at to av tre respondenter var enige om at vannbyråer skulle ha mandat til å redusere vannforbruket med 25%.
El Niño-prognosen fra 2015 for å bringe regn til California har gitt håp om at tørken vil ta slutt. Våren 2015 vurderte National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sannsynligheten for at El Niño-forhold skulle oppstå til slutten av 2015 på 80%. Historisk sett skapte seksten vintre mellom 1951 og 2015 El Niño. Seks av dem hadde under gjennomsnittlig nedbør, fem hadde gjennomsnittlig nedbør og fem hadde over gjennomsnittet nedbør. Imidlertid i, hadde tørkeforholdene forverret seg, og havets temperatur over gjennomsnittet hadde ikke ført til alvorlige stormer.
Tørke får guvernør Jerry Brown til å innføre obligatoriske 25% vannbegrensninger i .
Flere millioner California-trær dør av tørke – anslagsvis 102 millioner, hvorav 62 millioner bare i 2016. Ved utgangen av 2016 var 30% av California tørke, hovedsakelig i den nordlige halvdelen av staten., Mens 40% av staten forblir i ekstreme eller eksepsjonelle tørkenivåer. De tunge regnene fraforventes å ha en betydelig fordel for den nordlige statens vannforsyning, til tross for omfattende strømbrudd og erosjonsskader fra flommen. Blant ofrene for regnet var et Pioneer Cabin Tree , et tusen år gammelt tre i Calaveras Big Trees State Park , som klipper.
Vinteren 2016-17 viste seg å være den våteste på rekord i Nord-California, og overgikk den forrige rekorden som ble satt i 1982-1983. Flomvann forårsaket alvorlig skade på Oroville-demningen i begynnelsen av februar, og forårsaket midlertidig evakuering av nesten 200 000 mennesker nord for Sacramento. Som svar på kraftig nedbør, som har oversvømmet flere elver og fylt de fleste av statens store magasiner, erklærer guvernør Brown tørken offisielt over på.
Mulige svar
Tilpasning
Tilpasning er prosessen med å tilpasse seg omstendighetene, som betyr ikke å prøve å stoppe tørke, men å prøve å spare vann gitt tørkeforholdene. Dette er det mest brukte alternativet, ettersom det er vanskelig å stoppe en tørke siden det er en meteorologisk prosess. Å tilpasse seg problemet ved hjelp av innovasjon og problemløsning er ofte den billigste og mest nyttige måten, ettersom å prøve å endre jordens naturlige prosesser kan få utilsiktede konsekvenser.
- Avsaltning av vann;
- Resirkulering av avløpsvann ;
- Økt lagring av grunnvann;
- Økt lagring av overflatevann;
- Reparasjon og utskifting av skjøre diker.
Se også
- California tørke manipulasjon konspirasjonsteori
- Globale klimaforstyrrelser
- Effekter av jordens overflate på klima
- Vannbruk i California
Referanser
- « California | Drought.gov ” , www.drought.gov (åpnet 22. april 2020 )
- ” En historie om tørke i California: Læring fra fortiden, blikk mot fremtiden “ , Civil Eats ,(åpnet 3. mai 2017 )
- ” California tørke: dårlig politikk, dårlig infrastruktur “
- ” California står overfor tapte tiår i å løse tørke “
- ” Dagstrømberegninger 2015 “
- ” Arkivert kopi “ [ arkiv av] (åpnet 3. mai 2017 )
- http://www.water.ca.gov/storage/docs/NODOS%20Project%20Docs/NODOS_Prelim_Admin_Draft_EIR/09-Flood_Control_prelim_admin_draft_Dec2013_w_figures.pdf
- US Army Corps of Engineers, ” Central Valley Flood Management Systems “ [ arkiv av] , Auburn Dam Council (åpnet 2. mai 2017 )
- https://www.usbr.gov/mp/sccao/storage/docs/phase1_rpt_fnl/tech_app/09_pine_flat.pdf
- http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article60419396.html
- http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/FIRO/
- http://www.spk.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Folsom-Water-Control-Manual-Update/
- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/california-climate-temperature_us_58a49f38e4b03df370dca5cf
- ” Klimaprogramkontor> Klimaprogrammer> Forutsigelser og prognoser for modelleringsanalyse> MAPP Task Forces> Tørkeoppgave> California tørke “ [ arkiv av]
- Williams, “ Bidrag fra menneskeskapt oppvarming til tørke i California i løpet av 2012–2014 ”, Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 42, n o 16 , s. 6819–6828 ( DOI 10.1002 / 2015GL064924 , Bibcode 2015GeoRL..42.6819W )
- ” California hadde bare den verste tørken på over 1200 år “
- ” California tørker den verste på 1200 år, sier ny studie “
- ” California tørke verst på 1200 år: studie “
- ” Californias tørke er nå den verste på 1200 år “
- ” California er midt i den verste tørken på 1200 år “
- ” Californias verste tørken i 1200 år i bilder “
- ” Takket være stormavrenning er det mye vann over Californias nest største reservoar “
- ” Oppsummering av daglig reservoar “
- ” LA County Water Rates “
- ” Nok et tørt år kan være dårlige nyheter for California “
- ” Kyr ikke mandler er de største vannbrukerne “
- ” Glem den manglende nedbøren. Hvor er Delta Smelt? “
- ” Tørkeutløsere trenger installasjon av nødsaltbarriere på Delta Channel “ [ arkiv] (åpnet 6. januar 2016 )
- ” California tørke “
- ” Groveland Battling Water Bottler (Niagra) for å bevare sjansen for fremtidig vekst “
- ” Nestle Outbids Township That Wanted Well for Drinking Water “
- Påfyllingssystem for grunnvann
- avsaltingsanlegg for sjøvann i Huntington Beach
- avsaltingsanlegg for sjøvann i Carlsbad
- (in) Center, ” Virkninger av tørke | USGS California Water Science Center ” , ca.water.usgs.gov (åpnet 3. mai 2017 )
- Curwen, ” Tørke i California: Ikke regn, men ‘himmelen faller ikke’ “ , LA Times ,(åpnet 8. juni 2015 )
- 1976–1977 California Tørke: En gjennomgang , Department of Water Resources,( les online )
- (in) R. Christensen, En utforskende anvendelse av entropi på Minimax Weather Prediction: Estimating the Sannsynihood of Multi-Year Drys in California , Entropy Limited, 15 th ed. , 103 s. ( ASIN B0006XOUGG ).
- Water Resources Support Center, Institute for Water Resources, US Army Corps of Engineers , leksjoner fra California tørke (1987–1992) , ASCE Publications,( ISBN 978-0-7881-4163-8 , leses online ) , s. 122
- Californias tørke fra 2007–2009: En oversikt , California Department of Water Resources,, 1–2 s. ( les online )
- Ellen Hanak, Jeffrey Mount og Caitrin Chappelle, ” Californias siste tørke “ , PPIC,
- Alexander, ” California tørke: Folk støtter vannbeskyttelse, i teorien “ , SF Gate ,(åpnet 20. mai 2015 )
- Rogers, ” California tørke: El Niño forhold styrker, men ikke bryte ut galoshes ennå “ , San Jose Mercury News ,(åpnet 20. mai 2015 )
- ” Tørken i California: Hva vil du spørre Gov. Jerry Brown? “ , USC News ,(åpnet 10. juni 2015 )
- USDA Office of Communications, “ Ny flyundersøkelse identifiserer mer enn 100 millioner døde trær i California ” , USDA / US Forest Service,(åpnet 22. november 2016 )
- USDA Brad Rippey, ” US Drought Monitor California “ [ arkiv av] ,(åpnet 28. desember 2016 )
- Paul Rogers , ” Stormene i California legger til 350 milliarder liter til uttørkede magasiner, “ The Mercury News (San Jose) ,( les online )
- Travis M. Andrews , ” Morning Mix: Winter storm fells a of California’s icon-drive-through tunnel trees, carved in the 1880s “, The Washington Post ,( les online )
- Parvini, Sarah, ” Nord-California får sin våteste vinter på nesten et århundre “, Los Angeles Times ,( les online , konsultert 16. april 2017 )
- Park, Madison, ” Evakueringer bestilt over bekymringer ved California damsystem “, CNN ,( les online , konsultert 16. april 2017 )
- ” Californias tørke er offisielt over, Gov. Jerry Brown sier, ” CBS News ,( les online , konsultert 16. april 2017 )
- ” Californias tørke: tilpasning og formildende, “ på www.agrion.org (åpnet 12. januar 2021 )
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