by Hentet: https://klimarealistene.com/vaer-og-klimaaret-2023/
Vær- og klimaåret 2023
Klimanytt nr. 355 Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Været i Norge i 2023 var normalt, men med kontraster. Globalt var året det varmeste etter Den Lille istid. Medier og klimahysterikere boltret seg, men varmen skyldtes naturlige variasjoner, primært økt solinnstråling fra redusert skydekke uten drivhusgassenes fingeravtrykk.
Alarmene gjaller
Mediene har vært preget av ‘krigsoverskrifter’ om ‘varmeste målt noensinne’ osv. WMO slapp sin klimarapport om året 2023 med en direktør i ‘fri dressur’. Lederen, prof. Taalas, uttalte tidligere: «Extreme weather is destroying lives and livelihoods on a daily basis – underlining the imperative need to ensure that everyone is protected by early warning services».
FNs generalsekretær Guterres har allerede lenge før 2023 omtalt at kloden brenner. Den velkjente alarmist Jenifer Francis uttalte at «World probably the hottest year in 125 000 years».
Det er varmt, og noen ekstremhendelser har inntrådt. Resten er overdrevet eller galt og strider endog mot informasjon fra IPCC og FAO.
De har lært av Al Gore, men værhendelser er ikke klima. Det er statistisk sett for få ekstremhendelser i ett år til å endre veletablerte tendenser. De tør ikke møte andre syn siden de vet dette og at det er sola som varmer opp havet og at oppvarmingen skyldes mindre skyer og mer solinnstråling. Om de dataene er det musestille.
Klimastatus
Professor Jim Skea, IPCCs nye leder fra juli 2023, uttalte allerede i tiltredelsesintervjuet (her og her) at det er ingen klimakrise, og en temperaturøkning på 1.5 C er ingen eksistensiell trussel for kloden (se KN 345). Hans ønske om en balansert debatt ble ikke bønnhørt i IPCC-leiren der ‘klimakrise’ florerer.
Skeas nye toner er i tråd med status for vitenskapen om drivhuseffekten og klimaforandringer. Klimarealistenes vitenskapelige tidsskrift ‘Science of Climate Change’ har siden starten i 2021 publisert over 1000 sider hvorav 575 sider i 2023 om sentrale tema. Oppsummert i et foredrag av den nye sjefsredaktøren, professor i strålingsfysikk Hermann Harde, Helmuth Schmidt Universitet, Hamburg, har CO2-økningen i atmosfæren på 135 ppm siden 1880 en antropogen andel på bare 30-35 ppm (25 %). Total menneskeskapt CO2-effekt fra økningen blir under 0.1 C. Økning av metan og dinitrogenoksid er uten betydning – slik John Tyndall målte allerede i 1860.
Det er ingen økte tendenser til ekstremeffekter (IPCC 2021, og KN 335) og rekordavlinger siste tiår (FAO) viser at CO2-økning bare har fordeler. Årets og tidligere målinger fra de viktigste observasjonskilder er gitt i Climate4you for desember måned.
Alle klimaendringer domineres derved av kjente, naturlige variasjoner: variabel solaktivitet, månens tidevannssykluser, energiutveksling knyttet til overgang mellom vannmolekylets tre aggregattilstander (vann, vanndamp og is), skydannelse samt transport av varme fra ekvator mot polene påvirket av vinder, havstrømmer og jordrotasjon.
Som vist i figuren basert på data fra satellitten CERES følger temperaturen (rød linje) i hovedtrekk den markante økte absorpsjon av solenergi (blå linje) forårsaket av avtagende skydekke (ikke vist) som var betydelig i 2023 (se også KN 311). Det ga markant oppvarming av havet i ekvatorial sone (+/- 30 grader nord/sør) sammen med overgang fra kald La Niña til en kraftig, varm El Niño. Dette reflekteres også i de nedenstående oppsummeringer av værhendelser i 2023.
Sentrale observasjoner 2023
Temperaturene steg fra mars til september/oktober og overgikk tidligere målinger med klar margin. Året ble det varmeste etter Den lille istid og med middeltemperatur i overkant av 0.2 – 0.3 C høyere enn super-El Niño-året 2015/16. Siden 1980 er observert global temperaturforandring + 0.18 C per tiår (UAH) (0.15 C i årene 1915-40). Tiden vil vise om 2023 var et blaff eller avtegner et nytt nivå for inn- og utstråling, men waveletanalyser viser at vi nå er rundt et optimum, og at det blir kaldere.
I Sørvest- og Sørøst-Europa var det kraftige varmebølger som krevde mange liv. Det var store skogbranner i Canada. Generelt forårsaker hetebølger bare 30 % av dødsfallene registrert i kuldeperioder. Flere områder som Nord-Europa var rundt normalen.
Siden 2004 er havet over 1900 m dybde blitt 0.07 C varmere (ARGO-bøyer). De øverste 100 m i tropisk sektor har en økning på 0.2 C. 2023 hadde spesielt varme områder i deler av Nord-Atlanteren. Sør for England i en bue til Vest-Afrika ved Dakar, var overflatetemperaturen 1.1 C varmere. Vindsystemet NAO hadde særdeles negativ indeks (dirigerer luftstrømmer over Sør-Europa) over lang tid (se KN 342). Sør-Europa opplevde tørke og England var varm.
Nordlige Brasil inklusive Amazonas hadde kraftig tørke (se KN 356, kommer etter påsken) forårsaket av kjente forhold som endring i den Intertropiske konvergenssone (ITCZ), El Niño og i Atlanterhavsstrømmen (AMO). Også flere landområder og det østlige Stillehavet, var og vil bli preget av El Niño mm.
Tidevannsmålere viser en midlere økning i havnivå på 1-2 mm per år helt tilbake til 1810 med noen små avvik som følger Atlanterhavsstrømmens varme og kalde perioder. Usikkerheten ligger på over 3 mm, litt større for satellittmålinger. I år 2100 vil en fortsatt stabil økning samlet gi 8-16 cm. Satellittmålinger viser en stigning på 3 mm per år – tilsynelatende en merkverdighet siden satellitter måler netto tilvekst av landareal siden 1979 på størrelse med Belgia. Det er nivået langs land som teller – ikke langt ute på havet. I Stillehavet viste undersøkelsen over 709 øyer og atoller at 88 % hadde stabilitet eller landstigning.
Havisen rundt Antarktis nådde i februar sitt laveste nivå siden satellittmålinger begynte. Havisen økte år for år mellom 1979 og 2016 til tross for 27 år med CO2-økning. Så skjedde en brå endring helt uavhengig av CO2. Havtemperaturene var over normalen unntatt for Vest-Antarktis. Antarktis er et godt bevis på IPCCs feilaktige modeller.
Maksimalt isnivå i Arktis var i mars det fjerde laveste siden 1979, minimumsnivået i september det 6. laveste. Smelting av Grønlandsisen var den 15. laveste siden 1980. Snømengden var som før.
Norske forhold
Ifølge MIs Terje Alsvik Walløe hadde Norge et normale årstider, men med kontraster. Regnværet Hans i august var meget kraftig, og fra starten av oktober var det kaldere enn normalt med mere snø mange steder. Se mer detaljer på Værstat. Kulda holdt seg til slutten av januar 2024.
Årsaken var ekstrem oppvarming av stratosfæren over Arktis fra -70 C til over 0 C. En stram jet-strøm holder i varme perioder den kalde polarluften innen området, men nå buktet den seg, og den kalde polarluften strømmet sørover i lange perioder.
Landmassene i Norge stiger fremdeles som del av prosessen etter istiden med isbreer som lå over deler av Nord-Europa. Deler av kyst-Norge er i balanse, men enkelte steder ligger i den geologiske vippesonen.
Norske medier fokuserte sedvanlig ekstatisk på varme områder. MIs direktør var opptatt av økte skogbranner til tross for reduksjon til noen få prosentpoeng av nivået for 100 år siden.
Værstat oppsummerte at de 7 viktigste sakene presentert i 2023 var knyttet til feilaktige opplysninger fra MI, YR, NRK, VG, faktisk.no, sivilombudsmannen m.fl. – de mest sentrale formidlingsaktører i Norge. Viljen til endring var minst hos dem som er finansiert av det offentlige.
To forskere fra Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) publiserte en analyse basert på lange tidsserier i NASAs database. Senere tiårs variasjoner ligger innen rammen av de lange serier, dvs. perioder der CO2 fra fossile kilder ikke hadde betydning (se KN 347 og KN 349).
Konklusjon
Satellitter som måler inn og utstråling (ERBE, CERES) viser at temperaturen følger variasjon i skydekket. De kraftige værvariasjonene kan forklares med kjente, naturlige variasjoner. Dermed har året 2023 igjen demonstrert IPCC-leirens, inklusive politikernes, trang til skremselspropaganda uten vilje til å søke etter og formidle realitetene.
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