16. April 2024
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Klimaskepsis Fra Wikipedia, den frie encyklopedi

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https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimaskepsis

 

Klimaskepsis

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Klimaskepsis er en samlebetegnelse for mistro til det vitenskapelige grunnlaget for påstandene om at klimaendringer som global oppvarming er menneskeskapt. Spesielt retter holdningen seg mot konklusjonene i rapportene fra FNs klimapanel (IPCC).

Representanter for et slikt syn kalles klimaskeptikere, eller i en mer negativt ladet form, klimafornektere. Tilsvarende bruker klimaskeptikere ofte begrepet klimahysterikere eller klimaalarmister for å betegne personer som i de anser for ukritisk å overdrive farene ved klimaendringer.[1][2] Noen klimaskeptikere velger å kalle seg klimarealister. Klimaskepsis brukes også om skepsis til IPCCs forslag til miljøtiltak, siden slike tiltak vil være for dyre i forhold til gevinsten eller ha utilsiktede, negative virkninger.

Skepsis[rediger | rediger kilde]

Variasjoner i CO2-konsentrasjonen (tidsaksen i tusen år før nåtid). De menneskelige utslippene førte til en økning (rød del av kurven) som er uten sidestykke i hvert fall gjennom de siste 417 000 år.

Kalkuleringer av den globale oppvarmingen fra en rekke med klimamodeller, som er basert på et utslippsscenario hvor ingenting blir gjort for å bremse oppvarmingen.

Den geografiske fordelingen av oppvarmingen gjennom 2000-tallet er kalkulert med modellen HadCM3. Figuren er basert på et utslippsscenario hvor ingenting blir gjort for å bremse oppvarmingen.

Noen kretser, ofte utenfor klimatologien, avdramatiserer eller tilbakeviser sammenhengen mellom den globale oppvarmingen og den menneskelige aktiviteten. De fleste moderate klimaskeptikere aksepterer at det er en sammenheng mellom den globale oppvarmingen og menneskelige klimagassutslipp, men mener at effektene av mange av de konkrete klimapolitiske tiltakene som har blitt foreslått ikke vil stå i forhold til kostnadene, og at andre gode formål blir skadelidende. Den samme gruppen mener at utslippsreduksjoner i størrelsesorden 80 prosent innen 2050 vil være urealistisk å oppnå, all den tid FN legger til grunn at 18 prosent av de globale utslippene stammer fra landbruket.[3] En påstand er at den registrerte temperaturøkningen kommer av at klimaet var spesielt kaldt i slutten av middelalderen da den lille istiden slo inn, og at senere temperaturøkninger representerer en normalisering i forhold til denne istiden. Andre påstander går på at effekten av CO2 er begrenset, og at det ikke er noen sterk positiv og monoton sammenheng mellom CO2 og de historiske temperaturene. Dette har klimaskeptikere begrunnet med at rekonstruksjoner fra istapper viser en 800 års forsinkelse i korrelasjonen mellom økt temperatur og økt CO2-nivå.[4] Videre har man hatt perioder hvor CO2-nivået har økt, mens den globale middeltemperaturen har falt, noe som klimaskeptikerne hevder svekker den kausale sammenhengen.[5] I det anerkjente tidsskriftet NewScientist tilbakevises imidlertid disse påstandene[6][7][8] som endel av de mange mytene[9] som har oppstått i klimadebatten.

I kontrast til påstanden om konsensus, finner vi en lang liste av klimaforskere og andre forskere som har publisert arbeider som avviker helt eller delvis fra IPCCs antagelser om klima. Prominente klimaskeptikere inkluderer Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Claude Allègre, John Christy[10], Petr Chylek, William M. Gray[11], Craig D. Idso, Patrick Michaels, William Kininmonth, Richard Lindzen[12][13][14], Tad Murty, Garth Paltridge[15], Tim Patterson[16][17], Fred Singer[18][19][20], Roy Spencer[21], Hendrik Tennekes m.fl.

Flere forskere, deriblant Heinz Hug, Jack Barrett og David Bellamy har målt effekten av CO2 ved infrarød spektroskopi, og deres påstand er at en dobling av CO2-nivået leder til en varmeisolerende effekt på 0,012 grader i en atmosfære med 2,6 prosent vanndamp.[22][23][24] IPCC legger til grunn en varmeisolerende effekt på 125–500 ganger over dette[25], og det er nettopp feedback-mekanismene og effekten av CO2 på klimaet som er stridens kjerne i klimadebatten.[14]

Den sterkeste kritikken retter seg mot Michael Manns rekonstruksjon av historiske temperaturforhold, med bakgrunn i McIntyre og McKitricks undersøkelser. Klimaforskere tilbakeviser imidlertid kritikken av Manns forskningsresultat[26]. Videre kritikk kom fra Richard Linzen og Yong-Sang Choi gjennom deres publikasjon «On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data» fra 2009. Her ble det gjennomført målinger av satellittmålinger av både langbølget og kortbølget stråling til og fra Jorden, kombinert med målinger av havtemperaturene rundt tropene. Deres arbeid gikk på å finne ut hvor sterk klimafølsomheten i forhold til[klargjør] CO2 er. Deres målinger antydet en halv grad stigning av den globale middeltemperaturen ville bli resultatet av en dobling av mengden CO2 i atmosfæren. Dette står i strid med flere studier som foreslår at en dobling av CO2-nivået vil lede til en temperaturøkning på mellom 2 og 4,5 grader.[27]

Globale holdninger[rediger | rediger kilde]

I industrialiserte land som bidrar til debatten omkring global oppvarming var det i 2010 fortsatt et befolkningsflertall som oppfatter den som en alvorlig trussel mot seg selv og den nærmeste familien. Men andelen for eksempel i Vest-Europa var sunket til 56 % fra 66 % i 2007–2008. I USA var denne utviklingen også merkbar, idet andelen falt fra 63 % til 53%. I 2016 var andelen imidlertid steget til 64%, det høyeste tallet siden 2008. I Afrika sør for Sahara, som er rammet av betydelige klimaendringer, var tendensen også stigende; det samme var tilfelle i Latin-Amerika, mens tendensen i Asia under ett var noe fallende. Globalt steg andelen av mennesker som var bekymret for innvirkningen på seg selv og familien ubetydelig, fra 41 % til 42 % i samme tidsperiode. Nedgangen i bekymring for klimaendringen kan skyldes at befolkningen generelt blir mindre opptatt av miljøspørsmål i økonomisk vanskelige tider.[28][29]

En undersøkelse fra 2010 viste at bekymringen var størst i Sør-Korea (77%), Brasil (78%), Venezuela (80%), Ecuador (85%) og Hellas (87%).[30]

Konsekvenser[rediger | rediger kilde]

En meningsmåling utført av Populus for BBC i 2010 viste at andelen av briter som ikke tror på global oppvarming hadde steget fra 15 % i november 2009 til 25 % i februar 2010. Andelen som mente at global oppvarming skjer og at mennesker er årsaken hadde falt fra 41 % til 26 %. De som mente at global oppvarming skjer, men at vi ikke vet årsaken hadde økt fra 32 % til 38 %.[31]

En undersøkelse utført av Yale University i årsskiftet 2009-2010 viser at 57 % av amerikanere tror at global oppvarming skjer, et fall fra 71 % i 2008. Antallet som mente at global oppvarming var menneskeskapt hadde falt fra 57 % i 2008 til 47 % i 2010. Andelen som mente at det var mye uenighet blant forskere om hvorvidt global oppvarming skjer eller ikke hadde økt fra 33 % i 2008 til 40 % i 2010.[32]

I februar 2010 sa Kjetil Rommetveit, forsker ved Senter for vitenskapsteori ved Universitetet i Bergen, at den kalde vinteren «har vært en gavepakke til klimaskeptikerne».[33]

En landsdekkende undersøkelse av norske lærerstudenter gjennomført i 2017 viste at grad av tilknytning til oljevirksomhet ser ut til å tildels henge sammen med ikke bare grad av klimaskepsis, men og i hvilken grad disse tenker å prioritere klimaproblematikk i sin fremtidige undervisning[34][35].

Reaksjoner fra klimaforskere[rediger | rediger kilde]

255 medlemmer av The National Academy of Sciences i USA, inkludert elleve nobelprisvinnere skrev et åpent et brev som ble publisert i tidsskriftet Science, der de kritiserer klimaskeptikernes forsøk på å undergrave det vitenskapelige grunnlaget for konklusjonene rundt global oppvarming og dets årsaker.[36][37][38]

Profilerte klimaskeptikere[rediger | rediger kilde]

  • Sallie Baliunas, pensjonert astrofysiker, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics[39]
  • Timothy F. Ball, professor emeritus i geografi[40] med doktorgrad på et historisk-klimatologisk emne[41]
  • Eigil Friis-Christensen, tidligere direktør ved Danmarks nationale institut for rumforskning
  • John R. Christy, dr., Professor and Director, Earth System Science Center, University of Alambama, klimaforsker, tidligere hovedforfatter i FNs klimapanel.[42].[43]
  • Ian D. Clark, prof., Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
  • Judith Curry, Ph.D. Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, Prof. Atmospheric & Ocean Dynamics, Dynamics of Weather & Climate, Remote Sensing, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [44]
  • David Evans, dr., matematiker, Australia
  • Chris de Freitas (†), dr., Universitetet i Auckland, New Zealand
  • Ivar Giæver, professor emeritus, nobelprisvinner fysikk 1973
  • Zbigniew Jaworowski (†), dr., polsk fysiker
  • Hans H. J. Labohm, pensjonert økonomihistoriker
  • David Legates, dr., professor i geografi, University of Delaware, USA.
  • Richard Siegmund Lindzen, atmosfærefysiker, utdannet ved Harvard University, professor emeritus i meteorologi ved Massachusetts Institute of Technology[45]
  • Patrick Michaels, dr. i landbruksmeteorologi fra University of Virginia, ansatt ved Cato Institute
  • Christopher Monckton, forretningsmann, politiker og forfatter.[46]
  • Tad Murty (†), dr., oseanograf, University of Ottawa, Canada
  • Tim Patterson, dr., professor i geologi
  • Fred Singer (†), professor i miljøforskning ved University of Virginia
  • Henrik Svensmark, dr., astrofysiker, DTU Space, Danmark
  • Willie Wei-Hock Soon, astrofysiker, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
  • Elsa Widding, svensk sivilingeniør, energianalytiker, forfatter av Klimatkarusellen
  • Donald Trump, politiker

I Norge[rediger | rediger kilde]

Se også[rediger | rediger kilde]

Referanser[rediger | rediger kilde]

  1. ^ «Sannhetsmonopol». Minerva. 16. april 2008. Besøkt 24. juli 2008.
  2. ^ «Kaller Gore hysteriker». Aftenposten. 18. oktober 2007. Besøkt 24. juli 2008.
  3. ^ http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000448/index.html
  4. ^ http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/ice-core-graph/
  5. ^ http://www.grist.org/article/what-about-mid-century-cooling
  6. ^ http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11645-climate-myths-we-are-simply-recovering-from-the-little-ice-age.html
  7. ^ http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11659-climate-myths-ice-cores-show-co2-increases-lag-behind-temperature-rises-disproving-the-link-to-global-warming.html
  8. ^ http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11640-climate-myths-ice-cores-show-co2-rising-as-temperatures-fell.html
  9. ^ http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed.html
  10. ^ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119387567378878423.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries «I’m sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never «proof») and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.»
  11. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/1023334.stm «This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that influential.»[8] «I am of the opinion that [global warming] is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people.»
  12. ^ http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/OpEds/LindzenWSJ.pdf Arkivert 26. juni 2016 hos Wayback Machine. «We are quite confident (1) that global mean temperature is about 0.5 °C higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen over the past two centuries; and (3) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of many, the most important being water vapor and clouds). But – and I cannot stress this enough – we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future.»
  13. ^ Wall Street Journal, 26. juni 2006. «[T]here has been no question whatsoever that CO2 is an infrared absorber (i.e., a greenhouse gas – albeit a minor one), and its increase should theoretically contribute to warming. Indeed, if all else were kept equal, the increase in CO2 should have led to somewhat more warming than has been observed.»
  14. ^ a b http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html
  15. ^ http://books.google.com.au/books?id=FXNzPgAACAAJ&dq=climate+caper&ei=DCDQSuylA5-qkASewLz1DQ «There are good and straightforward scientific reasons to believe that the burning of fossil fuel and consequent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to an increase in the average temperature of the world above that which would otherwise be the case. Whether the increase will be large enough to be noticeable is still an unanswered question.»
  16. ^ http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm «There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth’s temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years. On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century’s modest warming?»
  17. ^ http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/comment/story.html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4
  18. ^ https://web.archive.org/web/20061205114918/http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/denialmachine/index.html «It’s not automatically true that warming is bad, I happen to believe that warming is good, and so do many economists.»
  19. ^ http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0422/p08s01-coop.html «The greenhouse effect is real. However, the effect is minute, insignificant, and very difficult to detect.»
  20. ^ «Arkivert kopi» (PDF). Arkivert fra originalen (PDF) 5. desember 2010. Besøkt 7. november 2010.
  21. ^ http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=e12b56cb-4c7b-4c21-bd4a-7afbc4ee72f3 «I predict that in the coming years, there will be a growing realization among the global warming research community that most of the climate change we have observed is natural, and that mankind’s role is relatively minor»
  22. ^ Die Klimakatastrophe – ein spektroskopisches Artefakt? Arkivert 20. august 2010 hos Wayback Machine.(Engelsk oversettelse av teksten)
  23. ^ «A critical review of the hypothesis that climate change is caused by carbon dioxide» Energy & Environment, årgang 11, utgivelse 6, november 2000, side 631–638.
  24. ^ «On the sensitivity of the atmosphere to the doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration and on water vapour feedback». Energy & Environment, årgang 17, utgivelse 4, juli 2006, side 603–607
  25. ^ http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm
  26. ^ http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11646-climate-myths-the-hockey-stick-graph-has-been-proven-wrong.html
  27. ^ «Arkivert kopi» (PDF). Arkivert fra originalen (PDF) 18. juli 2011. Besøkt 4. mai 2011.
  28. ^ Anita Pugliese og Julie Ray (20. april 2011). «Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat» (engelsk). Gallup-instituttet. Besøkt 16. april 2016.
  29. ^ Lydia Saad og Jeffrey M. Jones (16. mars 2011). «U.S. Concern About Global Warming at Eight-Year High» (engelsk). Gallup-instituttet. Besøkt 16. april 2016.
  30. ^ Lydia Saad og Jeffrey M. Jones (20. april 2011). «Top 5 Countries Worried About Global Warming» (engelsk). Real Clear World. Arkivert fra originalen 12. juli 2016. Besøkt 16. april 2016.
  31. ^ «Climate scepticism ‘on the rise’, BBC poll shows» (engelsk). BBC. 7. februar 2010. Arkivert fra originalen 21. juni 2020. Besøkt 6. september 2020.
  32. ^ «Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in January 2010» (PDF). Yale University. Arkivert fra originalen (PDF) 16. februar 2010. Besøkt 18. februar 2010.
  33. ^ «Kald by på varm klode». Universitetet i Bergen. 19. februar 2010. Arkivert fra originalen 6. september 2020. Besøkt 6. september 2020.
  34. ^ Skarstein, Frode (2. april 2020). «Climate beliefs in an oil-dependent economy: Norwegian pre-service science teachers’ attitudes towards climate change». Environmental Education Research. 4. 26: 491–510. ISSN 1350-4622. doi:10.1080/13504622.2020.1728233. Besøkt 21. mars 2021.
  35. ^ Stavanger, Universitetet i; Bakken, Anja Kristin (15. april 2020). «Noen lærerstudenter er mer skeptiske til menneskeskapte klimaendringer enn andre». forskning.no (norsk). Besøkt 21. mars 2021.
  36. ^ http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5979/689
  37. ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/06/climate-science-open-letter
  38. ^ http://www.desmogblog.com/esteemed-scientists-hit-back-climate-denier-campaign-science-letter
  39. ^ Virginia Postrel and Steven R. Postrel (1998). «Stars in Her Eyes: Astronomer Sallie Baliunas on sunspots, global warming, and the benefits of privately funded science». Reasononline.
  40. ^ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZzwRwFDXw0
  41. ^ «University of London Theses». Besøkt 28. mai 2010.
  42. ^ David H. Douglass, John R. Christy, Benjamin D. Pearson og S. Fred Singer (2007). «A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions» (PDF). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. Arkivert fra originalen (PDF) 15. november 2012.
  43. ^ Klimatolog og professor John R. Christy intervjues under et besøk i Hellas (Publisert 2012)
  44. ^ Judith Curry. «Judith Curry Home Page».
  45. ^ Richard Lindzen (2006). «Climate of Fear: Global-warming alarmists intimidate dissenting scientists into silence». Wall Street Journal.
  46. ^ Christopher Monckton. 2008. “Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered” . http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm
  47. ^ Pål Brekke (2003). «En varmere verden – hvor mye betyr Solen?». Cicero – Senter for klimaforskning. Arkivert fra originalen 20. februar 2008.
  48. ^ Pål Brekke (2009). «Al Gore fortjente ikke fredsprisen». Teknisk Ukeblad.
  49. ^ «CO2 and the “Greenhouse Effect” Doom». Besøkt 29. desember 2007.
  50. ^ NRK. «FrP-Hagen avviser sammenheng mellom klimaendringer og CO₂-utslipp». NRK (norsk). Besøkt 23. januar 2017.
  51. ^ «FrPs Amundsen gir solen skylden for klimaendringene». VG. Besøkt 21. desember 2016.
  52. ^ «18 år med fiasko er nok».

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