Åpent brev til norske klimapolitikere: Det eneste dere oppnår er å gjøre oss lutfattige
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Jeg leser at mange norske politikere har satt seg som mål å kjøle ned jorda ved å redusere utslippene våre av CO2, bl.a. ved å legge ned den norske oljenæringa. Prosjektet støtter seg på CO2-hypotesen.
Ja, CO2 kan i teorien varme opp atmosfæren, men forutsetningen for å lykkes med et slikt prosjekt er 1) at hypotesen er riktig og at det er mulig å påvise en positiv sammenheng mellom antropogene CO2-utslipp og en global temperaturutvikling, uten å bruke modelldata, 2) at de største utslippslandene er enige om at dette målet er ønskelig, og at ingen andre land vil ta over vår rolle som olje- og gassprodusent, og slik nulle ut vårt bidrag, 3) at den globale temperaturen er for høy, 4) at CO2-konsentrasjonen også er for høy og 5) at prediksjonene fra FNs klimamodeller så langt har vært riktige.
1)Hypotesen er ikke bekreftet vitenskapelig, tvert om, men den har likevel overlevd politisk. En sammenheng mellom antropogent CO2 og den globale temperaturutviklingen er ikke påvisbar, hverken ved bruk av måledata eller proxy data. Tvert om har det over geologisk tid vært en invers korrelasjon. En Fourir-transformasjon av Lüdecke og Weiss viser at temperaturutviklingen de siste 2.500 årene har vært syklisk og derfor er matematisk uavhengig av CO2-konsentrasjonen, som er monotont voksende.
2) De største utslippslandene ønsker ikke å redusere sine utslipp, og dersom Norge stanser produksjonen sin av olje og gass, står andre land klare til å ta over vår rolle som produsent.
3) Jorden er nå inne i en relativt kald periode, det blir etter alt å dømme kaldere, og nesten alle temperaturrelaterte dødsfall skyldes i dag kulde, ikke varme. Tidligere varmeperioder var dessuten globale og ikke lokale, slik det hevdes fra Cicero og NRKs klimapolitiske avdeling.
4) CO2-konsentrasjonen i atmosfæren er i dag kritisk lav, ikke kritisk høy; over geologisk tid har den variert mellom 180 ppm og 7.000 ppm, mens den nå ligger på litt over 400 ppm. Nedre grense for at planter skal kunne overleve er 150 ppm.
5) Prediksjonene fra FN har vært gjennomgående feil. Fra påstanden til António Guterres om at Tuvalu synker (Tuvalu har økt landarealet sitt med 2,9 %), at hele nasjoner kan bli liggende under vann, at det blir mer ekstremvær, at flere vil bli offer for ekstremvær og at matproduksjonen vil gå ned. Absolutt ingen av disse dommedagsprofetiene har slått til, tvert om er det motsatte påvist).
Pressestøttemedienes stadige gjentakelser av de samme profetiene, og tilhørende sensur av kontrær informasjon i det offentlige rom, endrer ikke på disse forholdene, men det kveler den vitenskapelige delen av debatten, fordi dagens forskere i stor grad overlever ved å snakke politikere etter munnen, med det resultat at politikerne tror at de har støtte for sine visjoner. Eller med historikeren John M. Barrys ord; «Når du blander politikk og vitenskap, får du politikk.»
Det er relativt trygt for meg å si dette i dag, fordi jeg er pensjonert forsker, og fordums trusler om å miste jobben virker derfor ikke lenger avskrekkende. Jeg kan derfor også noenlunde trygt følge min moralske plikt, ved å gjøre dere oppmerksomme på at dagens politiske ambisjoner om å stanse oljeproduksjonen og elektrifisere Norge, ikke vil ha noen annen effekt enn å gjøre oss veldig, veldig fattige, med alt hva det fører med seg av sosial uro og menneskelige lidelser.
Følgelig er det heller ikke særlig fornuftig å søle bort nasjonalformuen vår på grønne sertifikater, biodrivstoff, vindmøller, karbonfangst og andre meningsløse prosjekter. Da er det bedre å bruke pengene våre på å bygge landet og ta vare på de mest trengende blant oss.
Jeg har ingen politiske motiver med det jeg skriver, jeg bare ber dere om å tenke dere om én gang til, på et selvstendig grunnlag, uten å støtte dere til politiske rådgivere eller andre tungt politiserte informasjonsleverandører som, lett forkledd, bare leverer deres egne ord i retur i en evig runddans.
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