by Climategate-skandalen har 10-års jubileum
Klimanytt nr 267. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad
De famøse «Climategate»-epostene publisert fra 2009 er autentiske og gir korrekt uttrykk for de herskende oppfatninger i interne dialoger mellom sentrale forskere i IPCCs rapportskriving. Spesielt kritikkverdig er at de samme faglige forbehold, som IPCC-kritikerne også har påpekt, ikke gjenspeiles i IPCC-rapportene, men forties. Det medfører en tendensiøs og feilaktig offentlig klimafortelling som narresmokk for medier og IPCC-leiren forøvrig.
Hvorfor skeptikere fortsetter å kritisere IPCC
Hvorfor fortsetter vi å kritisere IPCC år etter år? Avspist med en spaltesnutt for å svare på en avisside med grove karakteristikker og hårreisende regi med kryssklipping på NRK osv. Jo, stor tro på vitenskapens betydning for folkeopplysning og demokrati der klimaobservasjoner av naturens variasjoner over tid trumfer IPCCs mangelfulle beregningsmodeller.
Men også fordi vi har dokumentasjon på at motparten i realiteten er enige med oss i sentrale, vitenskapelige spørsmål. Og de ser de samme svakheter i sine teorier som vi skeptikere påpeker. Det viser «Climategate», de mange tusen eposter med kommunikasjon mellom forskere sentralt i utarbeiding av IPCC-rapportene. Nå er det 10-års-jubileum for avsløringen. Se systematiske kommentarer av John Costella, The Climategate emails, en oversiktsliste av Tom Nelson, og Senathøring i USA. Men det finnes mange flere.
Epostene omhandlet sentrale vitenskapelige klimapørsmål
Epost-dialogene dekker et stort spektrum av sentrale vitenskapelige spørsmål og vellykkede forsøk på å hindre opponenters publisering, taktisk bruk av mediene og å bygge opp en falsk konsensusoppfatning. Her er noen forkortede smakebiter fra epostene (Climategate 1.0: 1000+ eposter sluppet 19. november 2009, Climategate 2.0: 5000+ eposter november 2011 og Climategate 3.0: Alle 220.000 eposter samlet, mars 2013).
Det viktigste er at epostene gir tydelig uttrykk for at beregningsmodellene som IPCC benytter er alt for dårlige:
- Fra Phil Jones: «Basic problem is that all models are wrong – not got enough middle and low level clouds.» (Dette nevnes også i de faglige rapportdeler, men kommuniseres ikke gjennom medier)
- Fra Tom Wigley til M. Mann (Climategate 2.0): «Mike, The Figure you sent is very deceptive […] there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC […]»
- Fra Kevin Trenbert til Tom Wigley (14.10.2009): «How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!» (De er langt fra å vite energibalansen i systemet – det viktigste element i beregningene. Likevel skal det være konsensus)
- Fra Benjamin Santer: «there is no individual model that does well in all of the SST (havoverflatetemperatur) and water vapor tests we’ve applied.» (Forsterkningseffekten feilaktig)
- Fra Watson: «But the “big climate picture” includes ocean feedbacks on all time scales, carbon and other elemental cycles, etc. and it has to be several decades before that is sorted out I would think. So I would guess that it will not be models or theory, but observation that will provide the answer to the question of how the climate will change in many decades time.» (Men politikerne tar beslutninger nå ut i fra modellene).
- Fra Barnett: (Climategate 2.0) «[IPCC AR5 models] clearly, some tuning or very good luck involved. I doubt the modeling world will be able to get away with this much longer» (tuning er forskernes egne justering av modellberegningen til observasjoner ved en rekke frie parametre)
Om solens rolle (3 eposter viser at de er ajour med forskningen) :
- Data concerning the warming of other planets in the solar system, indicating the sun as a major influence of earth’s temperature rise, has been ignored by the AGW supporters.
- «But how do we square the fact that almost every planet in our solar system is simultaneously undergoing temperature change and volatile weather patterns. Does this not suggest that global warming is a natural cycle as a result of the evolving nature of the sun?»
- «Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be natural phenomena.» (IPCC hevder solvariasjoner har meget liten betydning).
Om medienes rolle (se avsnittet climate communication). Det foreligger en rekke eposter om «pleie» av mediene, kontakter til viktige journalister, hvem de kan stole på osv.
- Fra Michael Mann: «the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what the site [Real Climate (disse personenes nettsted)] is about.»
- « …organized and deeply committed environmental activism has long been an important part of the UNFCCC process… »
- «At The Hague, this “inside” role was supplemented by hundreds of young, relatively naïve demonstrators brought in specifically to energize the environmental presence and confront the process.» (Greta er bare et nytt desperat forsøk når det meste går dem imot)
Om Hockeykølle-figuren: Ross McKitrick og Steve McIntyre avslørte den skandaløse «Hockeykurven» som fjernet middelaldervarmen og den lille istid. De har laget en 33 siders beskrivende rapport der relevante eposter settes i sammenheng med de vitenskapelige diskusjoner:
- Fra M. Mann (epost 0071) « …pointed out to him that we certainly don’t know the GLOBAL mean temperature anomaly very well, and nobody has ever claimed we do (this is the question he asked everyone). There is very little information at all in the Southern Hemisphere on which to base any conclusion.» (Dette er ikke det vi hører om den lille 0,8 C i økning siden 1880).
- (Oversatt, fra McKitrick og McIntyre): «Folk vil elske å lese dette i New York Times. Vi hadde ikke tillit nok (confident) til å komme med en sterk uttalelse, og så, plutselig, under oppmuntring fra Sir John har vi inkludert den. Det gjør oss flaue. Det føles som om noen få mennesker har en sterk føring (say) uansett hva som diskuteres på forhånd, og de store beslutninger tas i ellevte time av en liten, sterk kjernegruppe.» (Sir John Houghton ledet UK Hadley klimasenter og var IPCC-leder/forfatter 1988-2002 da Hockeykølla ble lansert).
Om konsensus i litteraturen (Epost 4027):
- Fra Tom Wigley til Phil (Jones): «This is weird. ….. Analyses like these by people who don’t know the field are useless. A good example is Naomi Oreskes work». (Oreskes, vitenskapshistoriker, er en prominent bidragsyter i konsensus-retorikken).
Hva skjedde?
Det var 19. november for 10 år siden at ca. 1000 eposter sendt mellom mars 1996 – oktober 2009 fra University of East Anlia (UEA) var lagt ut på en russisk server. De avslørte vitenskapelige og taktiske dialoger mellom forskere og deres ledere, alle sentrale i utarbeidingen av IPCCs vitenskapelige rapporter. De involverte må åpenbart ha sett det kritiske i at utenforstående leste dem siden flere eposter oppfordret til å slette dem, holde informasjonen hemmelig eller på annen måte hindre innsyn i viktig datamateriale og vurderinger. Flere avsløringer kom i 2011 og 2013.
Materialet ble tilbudt journalister. BBC avslo, de hadde jo allerede i mange år drevet effektiv kampanje for IPCC. Ingen grep fatt i det før James Delingpole. Det ble et stort oppstuss før Københavnmøtet et par uker senere. Etterpå ble det fra IPCC-leiren og britiske myndigheter organisert flere «cover up»-prosesser med rapporter og omtaler som ofte får fremtredende eksponering på Internett, Wikipedia mm. De ulike komiteers rapporter er godt omtalt i i Andrew Montfords bok, The Climategate Inquiries: Alle søker å fortie de vitenskapelige fakta.
30. august 2010 ble rapporten om evaluering av IPCCs organisasjon (De turte ikke evaluere vitenskapen) publisert. En meget kritisk rapport. Selv om den ble foretatt av IPCC-tilhengere uten deltagelse av IPCC-kritikere påpekte den manglende vitenskapelige prosesser, manglende usikkerhet og formidling av denne og sammenblanding av roller såvel som vitenskap og politikk (KN 167), slik epostene også viser. Nå er det 10-års jubileum. Forsvaret er i full beredskap med de vanlige programtriksene fra BBC, omtaler fra The Guardian og norsk fortiing. Også IPCC-kritikere er aktive med flere omtaler på nettet og i øvrige medier
Konklusjon
Det er bare å lese epostene. De taler tydelig for seg selv. Norske mediers antidemokratiske fortiing er direkte pinlig – en skam for den 4. statsmakt og folkeopplysningen. På de viktige punktene påpeker epostene at man kjenner på langt nær den globale middeltemperatur og viktige, observerte naturlige variasjoner forties og manipuleres. Beregningsmodellene er for dårlige, forskningspubliseringen er blitt mer ensrettet, og man har arbeidet systematisk med taktiske disposisjoner overfor mediene. På dette grunnlaget utarbeides de fremtidsscenarier politikerne understøtter med billiarder av kroner.
Vi vet også at politikerne gjennom allokering av personell, ressurser og med direkte deltagelse i de vitenskapelige prosesser, sogar ved direkte intervenering i rapportskrivingen, har støttet opp om og søkt å forsterke de alarmerende konklusjonene. Med FN som utøvende aktør. Det får være vitenskapens magre trøst og unnskyldning når naturen etterhvert feller sin dom – svært sannsynlig mens dagens politikere ennå er aktive.
Når Greta Thunberg med sine ungdomstropper bryter inn i Madrid-møtets sal og forkynner at politikerne ikke vet nok er pinlighetene fullendt.
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