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Global temperatur april 2020
Vi har temperaturdata for april fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for april er med +0,38 o C noe ned fra mars. Tilsammen med fallet i forrige måned har vi det nest kraftigste 2-måneders temperaturfall på nordlige halvkule gjennom 497 måneder med observasjoner: februar til april med 0,53 o C. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer hvordan man beregner klimaet. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1981-2010. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og er av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. April 2020 er med (+0,38 o C) noe ned fra mars (+0,48 o C) etter en betydelig nedgang siden tidlig i 2016.
- Nordlige halvkule klart ned til 0,43 o C nå, fra 0,61 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule uendret med 0,34 o C, samme som forrige mnd.
- Tropene noe ned til 0,45 o C nå, fra 0,63 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig ned til -0,59 o C nå, fra 1,09 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis kraftig opp til 1,03 o C nå, fra -0,72 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia kraftig opp til 0,97 o C nå, fra 0,17 o C forrige mnd
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Men ENSO påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.
NOAA i USA modellerer nøytrale forhold i sin ENSO status, i en fersk analyse (27. april) oppgis det 60 % sjanse for sommeren, med fallende temperaturer utover høsten. Prognosen kan tyde på La Niña til høsten, men prognosene i første halvår er ofte mye mer usikre enn de vi får fra juli måned. Den tykke sorte linjen er gjennomsnittet av de ulike modellene.
Meteorologene i Australia regner også med nøytral ENSO. De viser i en analyse 28. april til nøytral ENSO-status til det vi regner som tidlig sommer. 5 av 8 modeller viser nøytral status, mens 3 modeller viser at en La Niña vil manifestere seg når vinteren kommer i Australia og vi har sensommer her i nord.
April er ismaksimum for Arktis
Vanligvis starter issmeltningen forsiktig i Arktis i siste halvdel av april måned. Samtidig starter sesongen for medieoppslag om det isfrie Arktis, og propagandaen fortsetter uavlatelig til godt ut i september, I år har det imidlertid vært stillere enn vanlig, noe som muligns kommer av at media har fokus på Koronaskremsler nå. Det kan også skyldes at vi i år har et kaldere Barentshav med mer is. Meteorologisk Institutt viser i hvert fall på denne figuren at havisen stortrives rundt Svalbard (tykk, sort strek). Den mørke stripen er normal ismengde for 1981-2010, med et standardavvik. Dette er en varm referanseperiode, og representerer bare den varme halvdelen av en kjent 60-65 år lang kjent naturlig variasjon. For en historisk oversikt over iskanten, se siste Klimanytt som kom ut i går.
Isbreene samarbeider heller ikke med IPCC-leiren
Det tikker jevnlig inn med klimaforskning basert på observasjoner i naturen, og disse viser vanligvis noe helt annet enn det modellstudiene fra IPCC-leiren gjør. I bransjen for klimakommunikasjon (Bjerknes, Cicero etc) er man nøye med å passe på at slikt ikke skal vises til journalister, i tilfelle enkelte av dem innimellom tenker litt selv.
Shisper-breen i Karakoram-regionen nord i Pakistan er en av mange breer lokalt som har lagt på seg, Shisper har avansert 1047 meter fra februar 2018 til september 2019. Hele fem studier beskriver i år dette fenomenet, og det påpekes at man så en tilsvarende framrykning på 1950- og 1960-tallet, en periode preget av sterk global nedkjøling.
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