15. October 2024
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Grov klimaindoktrinering fra NTB

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

 

https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/07/28/grov-klimaindoktrinering-fra-ntb/

 

Grov klimaindoktrinering fra NTB

Forfattet av E. Montagrius.

NTB skriver nå i avisene at ‘Naturkatastrofer bekrefter advarslene’ om ekstremvær og klimakrise. Men klimaet har til alle tider fra tid til annen ført til problemer for menneskene. De samme spådommene om en snarlig klimakatastrofe har vært framsatt i snart 60 år, uten at katastrofen har manifestert seg. For 30 år siden fortalte en representant fra FNs miljøprogram at vi bare hadde 10 år igjen for å redde verden.

Hva NTB fortier

NTB fortier at perioden fra 2010 til 2019 har vært det beste tiåret for menneskeheten noensinne. I løpet av den siste 25-årsperioden har verdens sult gått ned med 40 %, fattigdom med 74 %, analfabetisme med 56 %. Dødsfall pga klimarelaterte hendelser i verden har sunket med mer enn 90 % de siste 100 år. Matvareproduksjonen øker, både fordi det er mer CO2, og fordi vår innovasjon driver utviklingen i denne retningen. Kornavlingene er firedoblet siden 1960, og prognosene framover er meget gode.

Den nylige hetebølgen i USA er ikke verre enn den i 30-årene. I uken som endte den 18. juli 1936 gikk 12 183 liv tapt på grunn av den ekstreme varmen, mer enn de 8851 som ellers døde i juli 1934. (The Bend Bulletin Newspaper, Oregon). I 37 dager etter hverandre mellom 17. desember og 22. januar 1938 var det opp mot 40 grader i Bourke i Australia (Coffe Harbour and Dorrigo Advocate).

Flommen i Tyskland var dramatisk, men den sveitsiske meteorologen Jørg Kachelmann sier at de tyske myndighetene kjente til flomvarslene på et tidlig stadium, men unnlot å varsle, så 200 helt uforberedte mennesker døde. Likevel var flommen antagelig ikke verre enn de enorme flomkatastrofene i Tyskland i 1804 og 1910. På Wikipedia kan man lese at de 30 mest dødelige flomkatastrofene i historien skjedde før 1980.

NTB skriver at CO2-utslipp hittil har ført til en oppvarming på 1,1 grader. Det er helt umulig, fordi mye av denne oppvarmingen skjedde mellom 1850 og 1940, da våre CO2-utslipp var minimale.

Det var varmere før

Så hevdes det at en temperaturøkning på 2 grader vil være ødeleggende for kloden. Men en veldokumentert klimahistorikk forteller noe annet. I løpet av de siste 4000 år har vi hatt tre markerte varmeperioder, den minoiske, den romerske og den middelalderske, hvor sivilisasjon, kultur og jordbruk blomstret. Spesielt den minoiske og den romerske varmeperioden viser at 1 – 2 grader høyere temperatur enn i dag ikke har vært et problem for menneskene, men tvert imot et gode.

Observasjoner trumfer modellbaserte studier

NTB forteller om et gjennombrudd for de såkalte attribusjonsstudiene, som forsøker å koble klimaendringene til spesifikke ekstreme hendelser som hetebølger, storm og flom. Men dette er modellbaserte studier så dette er svært tvilsomt. Gjennombruddet består bare i at slike studier har dukket opp, for å forsøke å bøte på at tradisjonell klimamodellering har ikke klart å gjøre koblingen.

Modellresultater må alltid verifiseres mot observasjoner. Og det er særlig på to områder vi har observasjoner som er fysisk målbare og relativt pålitelige, det er den globale atmosfæretemperaturen og havnivåstigningen. Høyt meritterte uavhengige klimaforskere som Dr. John Christy har vist at modellene ikke klarer verken å reprodusere historiske temperaturer eller gi korrekte temperaturframskrivninger, verken i forrige hovedrapport fra IPCC eller i den kommende rapporten. Og havnivåstigningen har ikke vist den akselerasjon som en økt CO2-konsentrasjon skulle tilsi.

IPCC sier selv «I forskning på og modellering av klimaet, bør vi være oppmerksom på at vi har å gjøre med et kaotisk, ikke-lineært koblet system, og at langtids forutsigelser av fremtidige klimatilstander ikke er mulig». Hvorfor i all verden skal vi da tro på klimamodellene fra IPCC eller på attribusjonsstudiene? Dessuten finnes det ingen måte hvor vi kan verifisere modellbaserte attribusjonsstudier mot kvantifiserbare observasjoner.

Den eneste måten vi kan teste trendene i ekstremvær på, er å studere langsiktige statistikker, for å se om hyppighet og styrke endrer seg, og det viser seg at vi ikke kan påvise noen økning. Dette eliminerer også behovet for attribusjonsstudier.

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