Isbjørnen – Klimarealistenes første store seier

 

Isbjørnen – Klimarealistenes første store seier

7. februar 2020

Av Geir Hasnes

De som tror at økning i CO2 i atmosfæren fører til alle mulige former for klimakrise, enten de er politikere, journalister, aktivister, eller alminnelige normale mennesker, henviser til Vitenskapen når de skal grunngi hvorfor de tror på dette. Så hvorfor ikke kikke på vitenskapen deres, og se om de har rett? For eksempel om isbjørnen?

Isbjørnen ble med Al Gores Oscar-belønnede film An Inconvenient Truth og David Attenboroughs BBC-program The Truth about Climate Change i 2006 et ikon for menneskeskapte katastrofale klimaendringer, og mens disse ble spredt til tusener av hjem og ikke minst skoler, kom FNs klimapanel som en vitenskapelig støtte til spekulasjonene og forutsigelsene. Dermed kunne klimapanelet og Al Gore motta Nobels fredspris i 2007 for sin opplysningsvirksomhet. Men var fremstillingen av isbjørnen vitenskapelig holdbar?

Klimarapporten
I september 2007 kom den fjerde versjonen av Klimarapporten, produsert av FNs klimapanel og tilgjengelig for alle å se på deres webside.

Den besto av tre hoveddeler: Vitenskapen, virkningene og tiltakene, samt et samlende og kortfattet sammendrag av hele rapporten. Hver del inneholdt dessuten et sammendrag for beslutningstakere, nærmere bestemt politikere, og de tre første inneholdt også et teknisk sammendrag for dem som ikke var engasjerte nok til å pløye seg gjennom tusener av sider med innsamlede forskningsresultater.

Vi vet jo alle at Klimapanelet sammen med Al Gore fikk Nobels fredspris i 2007 for sitt arbeid, hvor en isbjørn på et isflak ble et samlende symbol for all elendigheten i verden som kom til å skje i nær fremtid, der den svettet i solsteiken mens isen smeltet under labbene dens.

Så hva sa den såkalte klimavitenskapen og de såkalte klimaforskerne om isbjørnen dette året, som gjorde at den ble et slikt symbol for dette grundige og prisbelønte arbeid?

Del 1, Vitenskapen, eller The Physical Science Basis, nevner ikke isbjørnen med ett ord.

Del 3, Tiltakene, eller Mitigation of Climate Change, ikke heller. Merkverdig.

Del 4, Sammenfatningen, eller Synthesis Report, pussig nok ikke heller.

Kun Del 2, Virkningene, eller Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, inneholder noen korte fraser her og der. De skal vi kikke nærmere på.

Det Tekniske Sammendraget
Det er to konklusjoner i det tekniske sammendraget, i seksjonen De viktigste anslagene for systemer og sektorer:

1) Når sjøis-biomer krymper, vil avhengige polare arter, inkludert rovdyr som pingviner, sel og isbjørn, med stor sannsynlighet oppleve degradering og tap av habitat. D [4.4.6].

2) I begge polare regioner vil klimaendringer føre til nedgang i habitat (inkludert havis) for trekkfugler og pattedyr, med store konsekvenser for rovdyr som seler og isbjørn [15.2, 15.4.3]. Endringer i distribusjon og overflod av mange arter kan forventes. D [15.6.3].

Ingen av disse punktene er vitenskapelig formulert. Ordet vitenskap kommer av ordet viten, mens vi her finner antagelser og betingede formuleringer, altså antakelsesskap.

Merk at i punkt 1 er der et betinget vil og deretter en sannsynlighet: Reduksjon av is i Arktis vil føre til at det er en viss sannsynlighet for at isbjørnen vil få et mindre område å boltre seg på, men man er altså slett ikke sikker. Det som virkelig står er at enten skjer det ene eller det andre. I punkt 2 finner vi verdiløse omtrentlige formuleringer som store konsekvenserendringer og kan forventes, men altså ikke hva disse er.

Utsagn nr. to er dessuten direkte usant, for klimaendringer kan gå begge veier; det kan også bli økning i habitat ved en klimaendring, og dette vil også ha store konsekvenser og endringer, og kan forventes. Det er tydelig at man har basert disse utsagnene på at klimaendringene som ligger til grunn for dem, kun er negative.

Med andre ord: punkt én er mer gjettverk enn antagelse og langt fra vitenskap, mens punkt to er usant og verdiløst, og hverken vitenskap eller teknisk sammendrag.

Dette er ikke flisespikkeri. Vi ser her formuleringer som er satt sammen på en slik måte at leseren skal ledes til å legge inn det han tror det står. Han skal formulere noe selv på basis av ledende ord som degradering, tap, konsekvenser, endringer og sannsynlighet. Slik har forskerne sitt på det tørre. De har ikke sagt noe definitivt i det hele tatt.

På norsk er ordet vitenskap direkte basert på viten. Slik ser man ikke knowledge umiddelbart i det engelske ordet science, som er et direkte lån fra latinsk scientia, viten eller kunnskap, en avledning av scire, som betyr å vite. Derfor er det så lett å bruke ordet science på engelsk, for det forplikter ikke uten videre at man har viten.

Vi får sjekke videre hvilken vitenskap som ligger til grunn for de vage og tvetydige utsagnene i det tekniske sammendraget.

Kapittel 2.1
kap. 2.1 kan vi lese:

3) Ernærings-stress relatert til lengre isfrie sesonger i Beaufort Sea kan indusere synkende overlevelsesrater, mindre størrelse, og kannibalisme blant isbjørn (Amstrup et al., 2006; Regehr et al., 2006).

4) Isbjørn er helt avhengig av sjøis som en plattform for tilgang til sjøpattedyrene som fyller deres ernæringsbehov (Amstrup, 2003).

5) Reproduktiv suksess hos isbjørn har gått ned, noe som har resultert i nedgang i kroppstilstand, som i sin tur skyldes smelting av ishavet. Uten is kan isbjørn kan ikke jakte på sel, deres favorittbytte (Derocher et al., 2004).

I pkt. 3 ser vi det ikke-vitenskapelige kan. Var der en virkelig sammenheng ville man sagt vil. Igjen ser vi at det innføres en betingelse: lengre isfrie sesonger.  Virkelig vitenskap har vist at isbjørnen spiser voldsomt på ettervinteren når selene føder, slik at den kan gå sulten om sommeren og høsten mens det er lite eller ingen is. Den kan faktisk gå uten å spise i opp til 8 måneder, og dersom sommerisen er vekk går den gjerne på land, som vist i nyhetene på Novaja Zemlja, Svalbard, Grønland, Jan Mayen og vinteren 2019 på Bjørnøya. Den er gjerne på land om vinteren også, det viser alle fangsthistoriene vi har fra de siste 150 år, og bjørnene som besøkte Longyearbyen her nylig.

Punkt 4 er ikke relatert til skrekkscenariene i seg selv, og er delvis sant. Isbjørnen er ikke helt avhengig av sjøis, og det er heller ikke alle selarter som føder på isen. Det er sant at isbjørnen foretrekker sel, og da sel som føder på isen, men den fornekter seg ikke om den finner annen mat, f. eks. hvalross, fugleunger eller mennesker. Sjøisen i Arktis må forsvinne også om vinteren for at det skal bli vanskelig for seler og isbjørner. Likevel har disse dyreartene overlevd hundretusener og millioner av år med drastisk større klimaendringer enn de små vi har observert i løpet av det siste årtusen. Isbjørnen som art har i alle fall overlevd forrige mellomistid da den globale gjennomsnittstemperatur var langt høyere enn dagens.

Punkt 5 er påstander, som motbevises av andre observasjoner som vi skal se på nedenfor, eksempelvis økningen av bestanden, som motbeviser påstanden om at reproduksjonen har gått ned. Isbjørnene som observeres i dag ser i hovedsak sunne og velfødde ut, og sammenhengen med smelting av ishavet er i beste fall å finne i datamodeller basert på antagelser. Utbredelsen av sjøis i Arktis fluktuerer, isbjørnen kan gå og svømme tusener av kilometer for å finne sel, og selene holder seg helst i områder hvor isen ikke er tykkere enn at de kan komme gjennom den for å finne fisk. Isbjørnens reproduksjon finner i hovedsak sted på fast land (de kan også gå i hi på isen), og man forbød jakt på paringsområdet på hele Kong Karls land allerede i 1939. Iskanten har heller ikke forsvunnet, så selene er der fortsatt og isbjørnen finner fortsatt mat.

Kapittel 2.4
kap. 2.4 kan vi lese:

6) Vesentlig tap av havis vil redusere leveområdet for avhengige arter (f.eks. isbjørn) (svært høy sannsynlighet) [4.4.9, 4.4.6, Box 4.3, 4.4.10, Figure 4.4, Table 4.1, 15.4.3, 15.4.5].

7) Negative innvirkninger, inkludert forurensning, ble anslått for arter som sjøfugl, sel, isbjørn, tundrafugl og tundrahovdyr (Gitay et al., 2001).

8) Unikt lokalt biologisk mangfold (f.eks. isbjørn, boks 4.3) så vel som tundraavhengige arter som trekkfugler (f.eks. vannfugl, Box 4.5, 4.4.8, Table 4.1)) er bekreftet å møte økende utryddelsesrisiko, som samtidig truer levevei og matsikkerhet for urfolk.

9) For arktiske arter som isbjørnen er økende risiko for utryddelse forbundet med den prosjekterte store nedgang i omfanget av havis-biomet og havis-dekket (boks 4.3).

10) Boks 4.3. Isbjørn – en art i fare?

Det er anslagsvis 20 000 til 25 000 isbjørner (Ursus maritimus) over hele verden, for det meste som bebor den årlige havisen over kontinentalsoklene og øygruppene i det sirkumpolare Arktis, der de kanskje vandrer tusenvis av kilometer per år. De er spesialiserte rovdyr på seler som avler på is, og er derfor avhengige av havis for å overleve. Hunnbjørn krever næring etter at de har kommet frem om våren fra en 5 til 7 måneders faste i ammehuler (Ramsay og Stirling, 1988), og er dermed veldig avhengige av nærhet mellom land og havis før den brytes opp. Kontinuerlig tilgang til havis gjør at bjørner kan jakte hele året, men i områder der havisen smelter helt hver sommer, er de tvunget til å tilbringe flere måneder i tundra med å faste på lagrede fettreserver inntil havet fryser til.

Isbjørn står overfor store utfordringer fra virkningene av klimaoppvarming (Stirling og Derocher, 1993; Stirling et al., 1999; Derocher et al., 2004), ettersom anslått reduksjon i havisen drastisk vil krympe det marine habitat for isbjørn, is-boende sel og andre dyr (Hassol, 2004b). Havisens oppbrytning i den vestlige Hudson Bay i Canada forekommer allerede omtrent tre uker tidligere enn på begynnelsen av 1970-tallet, noe som har resultert i at isbjørn i dette området kommer på land tidligere med reduserte fettreserver (en nedgang på 15% i kroppens tilstand), faste i lengre perioder og redusert reproduserbarhet (Stirling et al., 1999). Foreløpige estimater antyder at den vestlige Hudson Bay-bestanden har gått ned fra 1200 bjørner i 1987 til færre enn 950 i 2004. Selv om disse endringene er spesifikke for en underbestand, kan lignende innvirkning på andre underbestander av isbjørn være rimelig å forvente. I 2005 konkluderte IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group at IUCN’s rødliste-klassifisering av isbjørnen bør oppgraderes fra minst bekymring til sårbar basert på sannsynligheten for en total nedgang i størrelsen på den totale bestanden på mer enn 30% i løpet av de neste 35 til 50 årene. Den amerikanske Fish- and Wildlife Service vurderer også en begjæring om å liste isbjørnen som en truet art delvis basert på fremtidig risiko for arten fra klimaendringer. Hvis havisen avtar i henhold til noen av anslagene (Meehl et al., 2007, figur 10.13; figur 4.4, tabell 4.1), vil isbjørner møte en høy risiko for utryddelse med oppvarming på 2,8 ° C over det før-industrielle (område 2,5-3,0 ° C, tabell 4.1, nr. 42). Andre isavhengige arter står overfor lignende konsekvenser, ikke bare i Arktis, men også i Antarktis (kapittel 1; Barbraud og Weimerskirch, 2001; Croxall et al., 2002).

11) Reduksjoner av vinter-havis vil påvirke reproduksjon, vekst og utvikling av fisk, krill og deres rovdyr, inkludert seler og sel-avhengige isbjørn (f.eks. Barber og Iacozza, 2004; Boks 4.3), som vil føre til ytterligere endringer i utbredelse og fordeling av marine arter (kapittel 15, avsnitt 15.4.3).

12) Vagile dyr [som er i stand til å vandre], som isbjørn (sjø-is biomer, tundra; Boks 4.3) og spesielt trekkdyr (tundra, våtmarker, innsjøer, tropiske skoger, savanner osv.; Boks 4.5) responderer på påvirkninger både i og på tvers av biomer. Mange arter parrer seg i ett område og flytter seg deretter til et annet for å tilbringe den ikke-parende sesongen (Robinson et al., 2005). Mange trekkarter kan være mer utsatt for klimaendringer enn bosatte arter (Price and Root, 2005).

13) Tabell 4.1. [Nr.]42, [temperaturøkning] 2.8 [temperaturøkningsområde] 2.5-3.0[:] Multimodell middelverdi 62% (rekkevidde 40-100%) tap av arktisk sommeris-omfang, høy risiko for utryddelse av isbjørn, hvalross, seler; Arktisk økosystem stresset.

Punkt 6 er temmelig vagt. Hva er vesentlig? Arktis kan faktisk reduseres vesentlig uten at iskanten blir særlig mindre i utstrekning. Kanskje den til og med blir lengre? Iskanten følger også konturene av land og øygrupper. I tillegg er det slik at iskanten ikke er overgang fra 100% is til 100% åpent vann. Iskanten er egentlig ingen kant, men et bredt område mellom fast is eller fast land, og åpent vann, hvor det er en blanding av isflak, isbaks, mindre drivis, og vann. Dessuten har forskerne her gardert seg nok en gang, ettersom ordet vesentlig ikke er kvantifisert, og man snakker om sannsynlighet, slik at om det motsatte skjer så har man dekning for det også.

Punkt 7 er et modellert anslag og det er da også en følgesak av antagelser. Med sykluser kan man oppleve både positive og negative innvirkninger, og menneskelig aktivitet fører ofte til forurensning, så utsagnet er ikke vitenskap, men antagelsesskap.

Punkt 8 er igjen et modellert anslag, gjennom mange forutsetninger som må oppfylles. Bekrefting av å møte økt risiko for utryddelse er antagelsesskap, og den bekreftelsen befinner seg bare i datamodeller. Da inuitene fikk geværer for over 100 år siden, møtte reinsdyrene på Vest- og Sør-Grønland en økt risiko for utryddelse. Ja, de ble faktisk så godt som utryddet, og det kunne bekreftes ved observasjoner, men man har ingen bekreftelse av økt risiko for isbjørnutryddelse i dag. Men man hadde det faktisk på 50-tallet, for fangsten var så effektiv at det derfor førte til lovgivning om norsk fangst i 1957 og en internasjonal avtale om fredning og kvoter i 1973.

Punkt 9 er nok et modellert anslag, hvor man bruker ordet prosjektert. Her har man bestemt en sammenheng mellom antall isbjørn og størrelsen på havisen og prosjektert ut fra en gitt nedgang i størrelse gitt økende temperatur. Sammenhengen er heller tvilsom, da isbjørnen faktisk kan gå på land og lete etter annen mat, jfr. invasjonen på Novaja Zemlja nylig. Det er ikke uten grunn at innbyggerne i Churchill i Canada har spikermatter foran inngangsdørene sine. Så har man da også brukt de vage ordene økende og store, uten videre kvantifisering.

Pkt. 10, en faktaboks, er det lengste stykket om isbjørn i klimarapporten, og dette har nok vært viktigst for de påfølgende historiene av ymse kvalitet i mediene.

Det er morsomt med anslag, for de blir ansett som fakta gode nok for politikere og medier. Men hva er fakta bak dette anslaget?

Susan Crockford

Forvaltningsmessig deles Arktis inn i 21 isbjørnområder, og i 2007 hadde man ingen tall for isbjørnbestandene i og nord for Sibir, Øst-Grønland og Det arktiske bassenget, halvparten av hele isbjørnområdet. Isbjørnforskeren Susan Crockford siterer en interessant epost: på sin webside: I 2014 sendte styrelederen for IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) e-post til meg for å fortelle at størrelsen av antallet på deres globale bestand ’aldri har vært et estimat for total utbredelse i vitenskapelig forstand, men bare en kvalifisert gjetning gitt for å tilfredsstille offentlig etterspørsel’.

Crockford har beregnet tallet for 2018: 39 000, med en usikkerhet mellom 26 000 og 58 000 isbjørner.

Det er derfor vanskelig å ha sympati for resten av innholdet i boksen i pkt. 10, siden klimarapportens forskere aldri har prøvd på en vitenskapelig måte å finne gode og holdbare estimater for sine tall, og at de reelle anslagene nå er på bortimot dobbelt så mange isbjørner som det de hadde for borti 15 år siden. Man kan faktisk (med basis i fakta) konkludere med at det ser ut til at isbjørnen ikke har det spesielt ille trass i alle modellbaserte anslag, som igjen da opererer med antagelser som ikke holder stikk. Her opplever vi ikke engang antagelsesskap, men direkte gjettskap. Merk også ladet ordbruk som tvungetdrastiskredusertsårbar og utryddelse, godt hjulpet av helgarderingen med bruk av ordene sannsynlighet og hvis.

Punkt 11 og 12 er vage og intetsigende, de sier bare at hvis det blir reduksjon av havis så kan isbjørnen bli påvirket og at endringer kan skje, men ingenting om i hvilken retning, og at klimaendringer kan påvirke trekkende dyr mer enn fastboende, noe som også er en høyst generell, og egentlig ganske tvilsom påstand.

Punkt 13 er en del av en tabell over virkninger ved stadig økende global temperaturøkning, fremkommet gjennom modellering og bruk av statistiske metoder, uten noen som helst verdi utenom det propagandiske.

Kapittel 2.15
kap. 2. 15 kan vi lese:

14) Når havisen beveger seg nordover, vil distribusjonen av krepsdyr (copepoder og amfipoder), tilpasset for livet ved iskanten, og fisk som polartorsk (Boreogadus saida), som nærer seg på dem, endre seg og deres utbredelse reduseres (Sakshaug et al., 1994). Denne reduksjonen vil sannsynligvis ha alvorlig innvirkning på andre rovdyr, for eksempel seler, sjøfugl og isbjørn (Ursus maritimus), avhengig av havis for ernæring og avl (se kapittel 4, boks 4.3; Sakshaug et al., 1994) så vel som mennesker som er avhengige av dem (Loeng et al., 2005; Vilhjálmsson et al., 2005).

15) Tynning og redusert dekning av arktisk havis vil sannsynligvis endre økosystemer som er i nær tilknytning til havis substansielt (Loeng et al., 2005). Polartorsk, et viktig medlem av disse økosystemene, er en viktig matkilde for mange marine pattedyr. Ringsel, som er avhengig av havis for avl, ernæring og hvile, livnærer seg på tanglopper og polartorsk. For tidlig oppbrudd av fast is kan ikke bare føre til høy dødelighet på nyfødt sel, men produserer også atferdsendringer i selpopulasjoner (Loeng et al., 2005). Isbjørn, et rovdyr i toppen av næringskjeden, er svært avhengig av både havis og ringsel (se kapittel 4, boks 4.3). Initielt vil tap av havis og de påfølgende skadelige effektene sannsynligvis forekomme ved den sørlige distribusjonsgrensen for isbjørner, der tidlig smelting og sen frysing av havis utvider perioden hvor bjørnene er begrenset til land og bare begrenset næringsinntak kan forekomme. Nylig har tilstanden til voksne bjørner avtatt i Hudson Bay-regionen og førsteårsunger kommer i land i dårlig forfatning (Stirling et al., 1999; Derocher et al., 2004; Stirling og Parkinson, 2006). Som andel av bestanden har antallet unger falt som et resultat av den tidligere oppbrytningen av havis. Tap av havis kan også ha negativ innvirkning på andre arktiske sjøpattedyr, for eksempel hvalross (Odobenus rosmarus) som bruker havis som en hvileplattform og som opptar en smal økologisk rekkevidde med begrenset mobilitet. Tilsvarende er narhvalen (Monodon monoceros) og grønlandshvalen (Balaena mysticetus) avhengig av havisorganismer for ernæring og naturlige ishull for pusting (Loeng et al., 2005).

16) Endringer i fysiske omgivelser som truer bestemte samfunn (f. eks. gjennom erosjon og tining av permafrost) og fører til tvangsflytting av innbyggere, eller forskyvninger eller nedgang i ressursene, noe som resulterer i endret tilgang til arter som er nødvendige for deres eksistens (f. eks. inuitters jakt på isbjørn) kan føre til rask og langsiktig kulturendring og tap av tradisjoner. Slikt tap kan på sin side skape psykologisk smerte og angst hos enkeltpersoner (Hamilton et al., 2003; Curtis et al., 2005).

Punkt 14 er nok en gang en antagelse. Det er ingen entydig sammenheng mellom lengden av iskanten rundt Arktis og havisens flate. Det er slett ikke sikkert at utbredelsen av krepsdyr og polartorsk reduseres.

Punkt 15 faller på observasjonen av flere isbjørner enn på dette tidspunktet. Crockford har dessuten behandlet tilstanden til voksne bjørner i Hudson Bay-regionen og påvist at den har vært syklisk.

Punkt 16 er direkte merkelig. Inuittene har aldri hatt isbjørn som hovedmatkilde – og de siste hundre årene har isbjørnkjøttet vært fullt av trikiner. De har først og fremst ernært seg på fisk og sel, og deretter reinsdyr og av og til hval. Inuittenes muntlige overleveringer forteller om et tøft liv hvor man ofte sultet dersom det var for mye drivis utenfor kysten. Det var omkring 1929 at inuittene på Grønland ble samlet på småsteder av den danske stat og sluttet med å leve sitt opprinnelige liv med familiegrupper i telt på bitte små plasser langt fra hverandre om sommeren, og i større stein/torvhus om vinteren.

Inuittene behøver derfor ikke å jakte på isbjørn, men det er vanlig at man går bevæpnet der isbjørn forekommer, og hundeflokkene gir beskjed om de nærmer seg folk. Selv guttunger på 10-12 år har lært å skyte med rifle for å knerte ned isbjørn som truer.

Dessuten observerte vi ikke at fangstfolket i Norge ble særlig engstelige av seg og gikk inn i psykologiske kriser da isbjørnfangsten ble nedlagt her for et halvt århundre siden. At de mistet en næringsvei og måtte legge om inntektsgrunnlaget sitt er et faktum, men dette gikk gradvis og det ble stadig mer behagelig å jobbe i Norge fremfor å dra på fangst i Arktis.

Kapittel 2-17
I kap. 2.17 kan vi lese:

17) Tapet av Arktisk havis truer isbjørnens overlevelse, selv om jakt av bjørner skulle reduseres (Derocher et al., 2004).

Som vi har sett over er jakten på isbjørner for lengst redusert til et minimum inkludert de stedene hvor der er kvoter, og det er bare i nødsfall at isbjørner blir skutt. Dermed øker bestanden av isbjørner år for år, selv om det har vært en nedgang i utbredelsen av isdekket i Arktis i september, som er tiden for minimumsutbredelsen. Det ser ut til at denne utbredelsen også går i syklus og utbredelsen de siste årene ser ut til å vokse fra et minimum. Mye av den såkalte klimaforskningen baserer seg på linearisering, slik at en observert endring postuleres å fortsette lineært videre, noe som går direkte mot naturens observerbare sykliske endringer.

Konklusjon: Isbjørnbestandene og individenes kondisjon indikerer ingen katastrofale klimaendringer.

Nå har den ivrige leser fått se hva klimapanelet serverte om isbjørner i 2007, på den tiden isbjørnen var blitt selve ikonet på de forferdelig klimaendringene man skulle ha i vente.

Vi ser at klimapanelets innsamlede grunnlagsmateriale ikke kan sies å være basert på vitenskapelige metoder i særlig grad, men heller antagelsesskap og i stor grad gjettskap. Det er ikke viten som anvendes når man snakker om at noe kanskje kan skje eller at det nok vil skje dersom noe annet skjer som kanskje er sannsynlig vil skje – og så videre i det uendelige.

Isbjørnen har vært brukt som en stedfortredende indikator i den enkle årsaksrekkefølgen mer menneskelige CO2-utslipp – øket global temperatur – mindre is i Arktis – færre sel – færre isbjørner. Dette er en postulert, og innbilt årsakskjede, og her har vi påvist at isbjørnen ved observasjoner og tellinger ser ut til å være ved god helse og i stort antall i Arktis, og at den derfor ikke bekrefter årsakskjeden.

Andre mulige hypoteser
De to punktene jeg begynte med, er altså konklusjonen til klimarapportens arbeid om isbjørner. Biologien til isbjørngruppen er intet mindre enn banal. De har intet annet poeng enn at når det blir mindre is, blir det mindre isbjørn. Den isbjørnbiologien Susan Crowford beskriver i sin bok The Polar Bear Catastrophe that Never Happened, som tar hensyn til næringsgrunnlaget og isbjørnens grunnleggende ernæring, forklarer hvorfor isbjørnbestandene har vokst, og gitt fete isbjørner. Det viktige er at isbjørnen i all hovedsak ernærer seg på isen om våren, og den isen reduseres ikke av et svakt varmere hav. Om sommeren er selen i sjøen, og da kan isbjørnen nesten aldri få tak i den. Redusert sommeris har derfor minimal betydning. Det som betyr noe, er mer mat i økosystemet. Det får vi gjennom et svakt varmere hav med mer næringssalter, større områder hvor lyset slipper ned i vannmassene og gir fotosyntese (takket være mindre is), og derfor som sluttresultat flere og fetere isbjørner.

Det kan godt være at global temperatur går opp, og at isbjørnen trives med det, noe som er den motsatte hypotesen av den vi finner hos klimapanelets isbjørngruppe, men den hypotesen har de ikke funnet for godt å undersøke. At isbjørnen gjør det godt er altså intet bevis for at det ikke blir varmere. Man ikke kan bruke isbjørnen som et symbol og bevis for klimaendringer gjennom at den er i ferd med å dø ut. Det gjør den faktisk ikke. Kanskje isbjørnstammenes vekst skulle bevise at der er global oppvarming istedet?

Svalbarddelen av Barentshavbestanden tar seg fremdeles opp etter fredningen, og har ført til stadig mer isbjørn på øygruppen. Ved nærmere ettersyn finner man at isbjørnforskning baserer seg på mangelfull og vanskelig tilgjengelig informasjon, og at isbjørnen er den eneste dyreart som er plassert på rødlisten som sårbar ut fra datamodeller, og ikke fra aktuelle observasjoner.  Det ser ut til å ha vært et fokus på bestander som (midlertidig) har blitt redusert. Denne typen selektiv informasjon lyver, og den snur virkeligheten på hodet. Det antas – og det er på ingen måte vitenskapelig – at alt er best slik det foreligger på ett eller annet tilfeldig årstall, og at enhver endring utelukkende kan være negativ. Derfor holdes eksempelvis ikke muligheten åpen for at mindre sommeris kan være positivt for isbjørnen – slik det i virkeligheten har vært. Begge hypoteser, at mindre sommeris gir færre isbjørn, og at mindre sommeris gir flere isbjørn, burde vært undersøkt. Videre ses det tydeligvis ikke på den realitet at mindre sommeris og svakt varmere vann øker primærproduksjonen, som gir mer zooplankton, mer polartorsk og annen fisk, og derfor mer ringsel. Og på toppen: Flere og fetere isbjørner.

Isbjørnen ser ut til å være mer tilpasningsdyktig til de naturlige sykluser i Arktis enn klimapanelets utvalgte forskere ser ut til å anta. Derfor er det ikke faglig mulig å bruke den som ikon for eventuelle katastrofale klimaendringer.

Emosjonenes betydning
Al Gore viste filmen An Inconvenient Truth på filmfestival i USA 24. januar 2006, og etter flere filmfestivaler ble den sluppet for publikum 30. juni det året. Til Norge kom den 8. september og den høsten bredte den seg ut over hele verden og invaderte etter hvert klasserommene. I 2007 vant den Oscar samtidig som Al Gore mottok Nobels fredspris sammen med Klimapanelet. Al Gores ikoniske bilde av den druknende isbjørnen på et isflak som smelter skapte illusjonen om at isen i Arktis forsvant og at isbjørnene derfor druknet. Som vi har vist her fantes det ikke vitenskapelig grunnlag for å si dette på denne tiden, men hvorfor ødelegge en god propagandaidé.

Samtidig presenterte David Attenborough klimapropaganda på BBC i filmen The Truth about Climate Change, 24. mai 2006, og filmen kom på DVD i 2008 og ble raskt spredt til klasserommene over halve verden. Her fortalte de den samme historien om isbjørnbestanden i Hudson Bay som vi behandlet over. WUWT/Polar Bear Science omtaler Attenboroughs filmer her.

Da vitenskapen begynte å bli kjent og utbredt om isbjørnenes hardnakkede motstand mot klimapåstandene, begynte fotografier og film om syke, døende og døde isbjørner å florere i media. Mer og mer gikk man bort fra å behandle isbjørnenes virkelige tilstander og baserte seg på emosjonell propaganda i stedet.

Men det er ikke lenger emosjonelt mulig å trekke frem isbjørnen. Det endelige nederlaget til en klimahysterisk presse kom da National Geographic i august 2018 motvillig måtte innrømme at selv de nusselige isbjørnene kunne se fæle ut når de var syke eller døende. Deres hensikt var å bruke den syke isbjørnen de filmet i 2017 på Baffin Island, som et eksempel på hva som kunne skje når klimaendringene var over oss. Filmen gikk verden rundt, og det er estimert at 2,5 milliarder mennesker har sett den.

Folkene i National Geographic skjønte ikke at de frastøtte millioner av mennesker med denne filmen. Isbjørnen hadde muligens kreft, men de antok at den var syk som følge av sult, og de hjalp den ikke! Dette slo tilbake på dem, da folks første reaksjon var: Dere filmet, men hjalp ikke til! Filmfolket laget heller en film de kunne bruke som klimaendringstragedie. Dette er hva klimaendringer ser ut som, sa de, noe som var blank løgn.

The Guardian kunne vi 18. oktober 2019 lese: Guardians bilderedaktør Fiona Shilds forklarer hvorfor vi kommer til å bruke færre isbjørner og flere mennesker til å illustrere vår dekning av klimakrisen.

Der kan vi lese at: Ofte, når vi signaliserer miljøhistorier til våre lesere så har et bilde av en isbjørn på smeltende is vært det selvsagte, men ikke nødvendigvis det riktige, valget.

Det anbefales å vise bilder hvor det er mennesker som rammes, da det viser seg at leserne responderer bedre til slike bilder, mens andre temaer, som isbjørnen, lett kan vise seg å bli for fjernt og abstrakt. Men jeg har en mistanke om at redaksjonen er temmelig klar over at folk flest har gått lei av isbjørnpropagandaen, for de anbefaler nå bilder av mennesker omgitt av miljøkatastrofer i stedet. Som selvsagt ikke gjør klimastoffet deres mindre løgnaktig, bare mer spisset mot menneskenes emosjoner.

Isbjørnen er faktisk ikke truet, men mer og mer ser det ut til at det er menneskene som blir truet. Det meldes om stadig flere hendelser med mennesker, og stadig flere med dødelig utgang. Da jeg var på Svalbard i forbindelse med arbeidsuka på ungdomsskolen i 1972, var det ingen som snakket om å passe seg for isbjørn og vi gikk fritt rundt dag som natt i Sveagruva i van Mijen-fjorden. I dag ville det ikke være mulig å ferdes der uten å være bevæpnet. 15. januar i år angrep en isbjørn en gruppe sightseeingturister en mil fra Longyearbyen, og da rakk ikke engang guiden å gripe til våpen, men måtte bruke et tau som han slo isbjørnen på nesen med for å få den til å gi opp angrepet. Han hadde flaks.

Ytterligere lesning
For å få vite mer om vitenskapen rundt isbjørnene kan den interesserte leser anskaffe Susan Crockfords The Polar Bear Catastrophe that Never Happened til en billig penge i paperback eller Kindleversjon. Hennes State of the Polar Bear Report 2018 ligger på nettet som pdf.

Les gjerne også Statistisk Sentralbyrås artikkel Fra fangst til fredning hvor du finner statistikk om de over 30 000  isbjørn som ble tatt av nordmenn i perioden 1871 til 1973. To tredjedeler ble tatt av selfangstskuter, en femtedel av fangstmenn på land, fem prosent av bemanningene på værstasjonene, og 2,5% skutt av troféjegere.

Vil du ha mer livfulle betraktninger kan du sjekke ut John Giævers fantastiske samlinger av fangsthistorier, eller Lars Normann Sørensens bok om isbjørnkongen Henry Rudi fra Tromsø, mannen som skjøt 713 isbjørn som han førte til Norge for skinnet sin del, og som en gang slåss mot seks isbjørner samtidig mens en av dem raste ned gjennom taket til fangsthytta hans.

Og er du mer enn alminnelig interessert i hva nordmenn foretok seg i Arktis kan jeg anbefale en titt på Vågamot forlags utvalg, der de har digitalisert utallige rapporter og artikler og gitt ut nesten hundre hefter med dette.

Det er synd på alle isbjørnforskerne rundt om i verden som ikke kan lese norske kilder.

Klimarealistene har vunnet sin første store seier: Isbjørnen er ubrukelig som ikon for katastrofale klimaendringer.

 

322 thoughts on “Isbjørnen – Klimarealistenes første store seier

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