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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2017/10/07/100-ar-med-manipulert-global-temperatur/
100 år med manipulert global temperatur
- oktober 7, 2017
- 22:20
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Jukstering av temperaturdata, Temperatur
Dette innlegget er en forkortet versjon fra nettsiden Klimatupplysningen, hvor Steffan Mörner presenterte kapittel 11 i den svenske e-boken «Vad du inte visste om klimathotet – en kritisk granskning av 33 påstander om klimaet». Orginalteksten på Klimatupplysningen er publisert av Ingemar Nordin, professor emeritus i vitenskapsteori ved avdelingen for filosofi, Linkøpings universitet. (understrekninger og fet skrift er lagt til av redaksjonen).
Den sentrale påstanden i klimadebatten er at global temperatur stiger kraftig og parallelt med økningen i atmosfærisk CO2. Vi har i Norge i over 25 år blitt bombardert med budskapet om at verden derfor står overfor en klimakrise.
Hva om dette budskapet ikke er sant?
De offisielle temperaturkurvene fra NASA-GISS og NOAA som vi får se i mediene bygger på målinger med termometer ved bakkenivå eller fartøysbaserte stasjoner. Grafen nedenfor bygger på hypotesen om en alvorlig klimakrise:
Om denne kurven stemmer så er det ikke usannsynlig at det eksisterer en klimakrise. Figuren viser en kraftig temperaturøkning som nesten perfekt samsvarer med økningen av CO2 i atmosfæren.
Men det offisielle bildet har endret seg dramatisk i løpet av de seneste 20 årene. I rapporten fra FNs klimapanel 1995 beskrev man temperaturene siden 1958, basert på data fra både værstasjoner på bakken, værballonger og satellitter, på en helt annen måte:
På 20 år har det offisielle bildet endret seg fra milde sykliske variasjoner omkring normalen, til en bratt oppvarming.
Siden 1979 har den globale middeltemperaturen også blitt målt med satellitter, som viser en mild oppvarming fram til 1998, og ingen oppvarming i det hele tatt siden 2000 – UAH er University of Alabama, Huntsville, og RSS er Remote Sensing System (varmetoppene 1998, 2010 og 2016 skyldes varmeutvekslingsfenomenet El Nino):
Hvordan kan temperaturkurvene skille seg så kraftig fra hverandre?
Det finnes mange svakheter med den måleteknikk som NOAA og NASA bygger sine kurver med, dvs termometre på værstasjoner på bakken (og i en viss grad på fartøy).
Det eksisterer ikke noe «globalt termometer» der man kan lese av den «globale temperaturen», da bakkestasjonene er ujevnt fordelt utover jordkloden, og målingene fra fartøy dekker ikke de enorme havområdene utenfor handelsrutene, særskilt ikke etter at Panama- og Suezkanalen ble bygd:
Antall værstasjoner har heller ikke vært konstant (Kilde: Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, CA):
Framfor alt skjedde det en drastisk reduksjon i 1989, i samband med Sovjetunionens kollaps. At den globale middeltemperaturen samtidig plutselig steg kraftig skulle kunne henge sammen med at mange målestasjoner på jordens kaldeste steder sluttet å rapportere etter denne omveltningen. NOAA har mistet 80 % av sine målestasjoner siden 1980, framfor alt i nord, hvilket medførte at målestasjonenes gjennomsnittlige avstand fra ekvator har flyttet seg 8 grader sørover.
Antall stasjoner har naturligvis ikke vært konstant lengre bakover i tiden. Når det forkynnes offisielt at den globale middeltemperaturen har økt siden midten av 1800-tallet skal man huske på at denne påstanden er basert på et ekstremt magert underlag. På 1800-tallet fantes det knapt noen målestasjoner utenfor USA. Ikke engang når bakkestasjonene var mest tallrike på 1960-tallet er det rimelig å påstå at de gir et tilforlatelig bilde av «den globale middeltemperaturen». og senere har det bare blitt mer tvilsomt.
Andre forandringer som påvirker målingene fra bakkestasjoner er bytte av teknikk eller materialer og maling med nye farger, men den kanskje viktigste forandringen av alle er urbaniseringen. Stasjoner som opprinnelig lå i landlige omgivelser står nå for tiden omgitt av asfalt, betong, hus, maskiner og mennesker i takt med at byer og flyplasser har vokst.
Dette gir en såkalt «urban heat island» effekt (UHI) i storbyene, på norsk omtalt som urbane varmeøyer. Spesielt på nattestid, da varme som byen absorberer om dagen stråler tilbake til atmosfæren:
Følgelig får man et skille mellom temperaturkurvene fra målestasjoner i byene og på flyplasser og øvrige målestasjoner i mer landlige omgivelser (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag):
Temperaturangivelsene til høyre i diagrammet over viser endringen målt i grader Fahrenheit per århundre på hver og en av plassene.
Temperaturforskjellen mellom by og land har økt kraftig i USA siden 1960-tallet (Kilde: Dr. Edward Long, Contiguous U.S. Temperature Trends Using NCDC Raw and Adjusted Data for One-Per-State Rural and Urban Station Sets):
Men hva menes med «Raw data» (rådata)?
De temperaturkurvene som er offentlige er ikke hva termometrene viser («rådata»), men et betydelig prosessert produkt. Man gjør ulike typer av «administrative adjustments» för feilkilder som at målestasjoner endres, flyttes eller forsvinner, eller med hensyn til stasjonens plassering. Det er en kompleks prosess, som ikke er helt kvalitetssikret og som ikke alltid henger med i utviklingen.
Når den uavhengige forskeren Anthony Watts oppdaget at mange av målestasjonene i USA var svært uheldig plasserte på grunn av veksten i byer og på flyplasser – omgitt av betong og varmeutstrålende maskiner – gjorde NOAA (under ledelse av Tom Karl) en utredning (Menne, M.J., C.N. Williams, Jr., and M.A. Palecki, 2010).
Overraskende nok kom man fram til att disse målestasjonene hadde vist for lave temperaturer – hvilket skulle bero på bytte av måleteknikk:
«Of significant note, the sign of the bias is counterintuitive to photographic documentation of poor exposure because associated instrument changes led to an artificial negative (”cool”) bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive (”warm”) bias in minimum temperatures.»
Manipulasjonen av rådataene
Så løste NOAA både problemet med urbane varmeøyer (UHI) og med uheldig plasserte målestasjoner på enkelt vis, og derfor justerer NOAA for UHI ved å forhøye temperaturene, til og med ved de mest urbane målestasjonene.
Slik har NOAA justert de faktisk observerte temperaturene for 1900-tallet (grafen nedenfor er hentet fra Tony Hellers blogg RealClimateScience.com:
Man har i gjennomsnitt senket temperaturene kraftig før 1980 og deretter gradvis mindre, før man i starten av 2000-tallet begynte å øke temperaturene.
Antallet «administrative justeringer» av middeltemperaturen i USA har økt dramatisk de seneste 50 årene. Mange justeringer skyldes at stasjoner har sluttet å rapportere, og da fyller NOAA på med data fra omkringliggende stasjoner, eller gjetter seg til verdien (samme kilde som over):
I løpet av 2000-tallet har NOAA på en slik måte endret sine egne data for 1900-tallets temperaturer, slik at den offisielle kurven har blitt stadig brattere – kaldere før og varmere nå. Grafen under (samme kilde) viser forskjellen mellom NOAAs kurve fra 2016 og den man presenterte i 2001:
Justeringer gjøres altså retroaktivt, for hele temperaturserien helt tilbake til 1880, og resultatet av endringene mellom 2001 og 2016 er en brattere varmetrend mellom 1880 og idag.
Wibjörn Karlén, professor emeritus i Naturgeografi, noterte vinteren 2012–13 at NASA-GISS uten varsel eller forklaring hadde tatt bort de tidligere lett tilgjengelige dataseriene fra verdens ulike bakkestasjoner.
Men han la også merke til at dataseriene hadde blitt endret, som kurvene for Reykjavik nedenfor viser:
Han publiserte sine iakttagelser i 2013 under overskriften «GISS/NASA manipulation of temperature data», og skrev blant annet:
«Adjustments of data that are several decades old may be justified in some specific cases. However, this would require very strong indications that they are necessary, which then, of course, must be carefully spelled out. The number of stations found with data from both 2012 and 2013 is small, but the extent of changes to their data is startling. As the two sets of data series differ significantly, none of them can be accepted as the real temperature for calculation of a global mean.»
Mye av eldre data har «forsvunnet», men på klimatupplysningens originaloppslag finnes eksempel på lignende justeringer av temperaturdata fra steder over hela verden (blått=rådata, rødt=justerte data):
Forskjellen mellom den opprinnelige og justerte (som rapporteres idag) middeltemperaturen i USA på 1900-tallet framgår av grafen under. Det som opprinnelig så ut som en udramatisk kurve over sykliske klimaendringer, der 1930-tallet var varmere enn 2010, har blitt til en langsiktig varmetrend, ved at eldre data er justert nedover (figuren under, Tony Heller, RealClimateScience.com):
Statistikken över varmerekorder viser at det var varmere i USA under varmebølgen på 1930-tallet (the dust bowl era) og på 1950-tallet enn idag:
Og det var til og med mange flere varmerekorder den gangen:
Interessant nok tenderer alle justeringer i en viss retning: eldre data justeres nedover, og nyere data justeres opp, hvilket resulterer i at kurver med rådata som har en kjølende trend istedet får en varmende trend.
NASA-GISS og NOAA justerer altså temperaturdata, både dagsaktuelle og fra hele 1900-tallet, över hele verden, og endrer dermed bildet av den globale klimautviklingen de seneste 100 årene, slik at kurvens varmende trend blir brattere, og perioder med avkjøling snarere framstår som platåer.
Disse prestisjefylte organisasjonenes egne data for 1900-tallet har endret seg med tiden, slik at kurven över den globale oppvarmingen har blitt mer og mer dramatisk.
Diagrammet viser de globale temperaturene som de presenterte i 1981 og, i justert form, i 1997 og respektive 2015 (Tony Heller, RealClimateScience.com):
Kurvene nedenfor viser hvordan NASA-GISS har endret 1900-tallets globale klimahistorie steg for steg, og har forvandlet den 40-årige kuldeperioden mellom (ca) 1940 og 1980 – den som fikk forskerne til å frykte at en ny istid var på vei – til et temperaturplatå med svak oppvarming. Sjef for NASA-GISS var i hele denne perioden James Hansen, som er den globale oppvarmingens klimaprofet framfor andre.
På dette vis har man förvandlet en langsiktig harmløs trend av oppvarming på 0,4°C i 1880–1990, med en lang periode av nedkjøling med -0,3°C, og med like høye temperaturer i 1940 som i 1990, til en bratt og akselererende temperaturøkning der hoveddelen av oppvarmingen setter inn etter 1950, og tilter opp dramatisk etter 2000.
Justeringer av eldre rådata ned og nyere opp forklarer NOAA med at det handler om hva man kaller «time of observation bias adjustment» (TOBS). Grunnen til at man antar at eldre rådata er for høye er at man mener at man på den tiden leste av termometrene på eftermiddagen, hvilket teoretisk burde lede til dobbelregning av varme dager. Omvendt behøver data fra senere tid justeres opp, da termometrene istedet blir avlest om morgenen, eftersom det teoretisk burde medføre dobbelregning av kalde dager.
Men Tony Heller, som har arbeidet med kvalitetssikring av blant annet klimamodeller, har vist at valget av målemetode ikke gjør noen forskjell når det gjelder temperaturtrenden – i USA, som har verldens mest utbygde og beste nett av målestasjoner, har rådata både fra stasjoner som har målt på morgenen og stasjoner som har målt på kvelden i samme nedkjølende trend på 1900-talet.
Dessuten framgår det tydelig (ovenfor) at «morgonstasjonene» i gjenomsnitt har høyere temperaturer enn «ettermiddagsstasjonene», ikke lavere som NOAA antar. Det beror antagelig på det enkle faktum at det finnes et geografisk skille mellom de to typene av stasjoner. Stasjonene som er blitt avlest på morgenen ligger helt enkelt lengre sydpå:
Hittil har de manipulerte dataseriene fra bakkebaserte stasjoner ikke blitt bekreftet av målinger fra satellitter og radiosonder – men det er i ferd med å endres. I det siste «justerer» man nemlig også disse dataene slik at de viser en mer dramatisk temperaturstigning, og dette gjøres med henvisning til de allerede manipulerte bakkedataene. Slik justerte RSS sine satellittdata nylig:
Den grå linjen representerer den tidligere versjonen, den røde den nye, som stemmer bedre med de data fra bakkestasjoner som NOAA publiserer.
Det er vanskelig å unngå mistanken om at RSS har gitt etter för presset fra klimatalarmistene ved NOAA, NASA-GISS og FN og at selv de har begynt å korrumpere sine egne data. Roy Spencer, som sammen med John Christy leder forskergruppen ved UAH förutså at dette skulle skje, på samme sett som RSS raskt skulle få sine nye resultater publisert uten å få materialet gransket av UAH-gruppen.
UAH fortsetter å vise svært små endringer helt siden 1979, og spesielt siden 1998. Hvilket hittil har stemt bra med data fra radiosonder.
Hittil – for til og med disse dataene er «justert» i seneste tid. Etter at James Angell ved NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) i Silver Spring, Maryland, gikk av med pensjon i 2012 har også data fra værballonger (1950-2017) blitt endret slik at de stemmer bedre med bakkestasjonene:
Tillegg 11.oktober, en tekst redaksjonen har fått fra nettverket Klimatsans
«Global medeltemperatur» är helt enkelt medeltalet av vad som råkar ha mätts. Mätstationer på land finns främst i norra halvklotets utvecklade länder. Flerfalt större områden saknar helt eller till största delen mätstationer. För dem beräknas temperaturer från omgivande områden med stora felkällor.
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