Klimarapporten er ikke et hellig skrift
FN har gitt ut «klimarapporter» siden 1990.
Disse har hatt en større suksess enn noen andre skrifter noensinne, fordi de har hatt konsekvenser for lovgivning og skattlegging i flere land enn både Bibelen og Koranen, ja, faktisk i nesten alle land i verden. Dette skyldes i første rekke et ukritisk mottak av skriftene, eller rettere sagt av fortolkningen av dem, kalt Summary for Policymakers.
Det var et spørsmål i kommentarfeltet til min forrige artikkel Klimakrisen savner basis i vitenskap som trigget overskriften til denne artikkelen. Det var: «Hvilke bevis må til for at du skal tro på det FNs klimapanel og andre sier?»
Det er hyggelig å få et høflig spørsmål om hva som skal til for at jeg skal tro på FNs klimapanel. Svaret er imidlertid: Det finnes ingen ting som vil få meg til å «tro» på klimapanelets rapporter. For hva vil det egentlig si å tro på et skrift?
Les også: Har stått i stormen før – nå er Hans Borge blitt daglig leder i Klimarealistene (+)
De hellige skrifter
Om Bibelen sies det at det finnes dem som tror på det som står der, og det finnes dem som tror på det som menes med det som står der. Bibelens språkbruk har vært gjenstand for utallige fortolkninger, skismaer og heresier, og hva som menes har vært gjenstand for utallige konsiler og utlegninger. Ikke uten grunn har vi en ufattelig flora av kirkesamfunn i verden og selv innen kirkesamfunn er det store fraksjoner som er uenige.
Da Martin Luther oversatte Bibelen til tysk sørget han for at en del formuleringer ikke ble slik som tradisjonell katolisisme oversatte dem. Andre kirkesamfunn oversetter som de ser det likt, for eksempel Jehovas vitner, som avskaffer Jesu guddom. Bibelen er mange steder tvetydig og derfor har millioner hatt en mening om forskjellige skriftsteder. Selv blir jeg oppgitt når krangelen går om Skapelsesberetningen, siden det er så åpenbart at den er en poetisk-mytologisk fortelling og ikke vitenskap som skal tas bokstavelig. Bokstavtro er forskjellig fra meningstro.
Man kan gå enda lenger og påpeke at stadige funn av fragmenter bidrar til korreksjoner i de hellige skriftene. Lignelsen om kamelen og nåløyet sier jo at det er umulig for en rik mann å komme inn i himmelen, mens en ny separat oversettelse nå hevder at kamelen skal erstattes med et tau, og dette kan jo faktisk i form av sine enkelte kordeler tres gjennom et nåløye, men det vil være en vanskelig og langvarig prosess. Det hevdes av enkelte forskere at Koranen for en stor del er en oversettelse av et monoteistisk kristent skrift på syrisk, hvor de 72 jomfruene egentlig er vindrueklaser, men troende muslimer vil ha seg frabedt slik vantro. Det hevdes av den generelle forskning at Moses aldri har levd og at det ikke finnes fnugg av bevis for utgangen av Egypt, men nå har jeg altså lest en forsker som hevder at det er en feil avskrift i et tall i Bibelen og med dette kan utgangen tidfestes, til tusen år tidligere.
På slikt vis blir det også rabalder når man kritiserer klimarapportene. For da trekker man også i tvil vitenskapsfolkene bak, og disse har da åpenbart arbeidet i uselvisk iver etter å finne frem sannheten om klimaet. I denne vår tidsalder hvor ingen ting lenger anses som hellig, har Vitenskapen med stor V langt på vei inntatt posisjonen som det hellige og rene man ikke bare aksepterer, men bøyer seg blindt for.
Typisk for religioner og hellige skrifter er også profeter med sine profetier. Disse opptar en stor plass i Bibelens Gamle Testamente, og mønsteret følges også i klimarapportene. Det aller meste av klimarapportene er nemlig profetier, antagelser om hva som skal skje i fremtiden «gitt at» den globale gjennomsnittstemperaturen stiger. Disse profetiene tar ofte form av «scenarier», som skal inngi frykt i folket om de ikke vender om og ender sitt syndige levnet med å forbrenne kull, gass, olje og produsere sement og stål, og spise kjøtt av urene dyr – som er alle ifølge enkelte av profetene og profetinnene.
Les også: Velkommen til kunnskap og fornuft – stopp den menneskeskapte klimakrisen (+)
Havnivåstigning – scenario og virkelighet
Jeg skal her ta for meg ett av de viktigste skremslene ved klimarapportene, havnivåstigning.
I den første klimarapporten fra 1990 finner vi på side xxx (ja, faktisk side 30 med romertall) et scenario (en profeti) for havnivåstigning, se Figur 1.
Figur 1. Scenario med aksellererende havnivåstigning, prediktert ut fra fortsatte utslipp av CO2.
Tretti år etter vet vi ifølge målingene av CO2 i atmosfæren ved observatoriet på Mauna Loa, at utslippene bare fortsetter og fortsetter og stiger og stiger. Etter 30 år må man kunne trekke slutninger om hvorvidt denne profetien har funnet sted.
Les også: Podkast: Siv.ing Geir Hasnes spår at klimahysteriet går over i klimapsykose (+)
Havnivåstigning etter siste istid – observert
Havnivåstigning er i klimarapporten implisitt forbundet med fare, og en av de alvorligste og mest verdensomspennende virkninger av utslipp av CO2. Men hvis vi ser på hvordan havet har steget etter siste istid, så ser vi at naturen fint klarer med dette. I figur 2 nedenfor ser vi hvordan det globale havnivået har steget etter siste istidsmaksimum, 125 meter under dagens nivå.
Vi ser at global havnivåstigning har vært gjennomsnittlig 6 mm i året siden istidens maksimum. I dag hevder IPCC at den er på 3 mm i året. Men figuren i klimarapporten (figur 1) viser en gjennomsnittlig økning fra 1990 frem til i dag på 6 mm i året i det midtre scenariet, altså like mye som da de enorme isbreene smeltet. Dette virker lite sannsynlig og er heller ikke observert, se nedenfor.
Vi kan også se at fra 15 000 til 14 000 år siden steg havet mest, hele 30 meter på 1000 år, som er 30 mm pr år over tusen år. Det må i det minste ha blitt observert av folkene som bodde ved havet. Vi vet at Doggerbank ble oversvømt for flere tusen år siden da det var bebodd. Men havnivåstigning har ingen fare heftet ved seg i forhold til tsunamier og tropiske stormer.
Det eneste upraktiske ved havnivåstigning i fremtiden vil være at man eventuelt må flytte eiendommer. Men siden bygninger i dag nedskrives over maksimalt tyve år og i finans-strøk mye raskere, vil ikke havet rekke å stige noe særlig (kanskje et par cm) før nye bygninger skal settes opp og de gamle rives.
Havnivåstigning og istider
Jorda har vært utsatt for en rekke istider i flere millioner år og det ser ut til at istidene varer i omkring 100 000 år avbrutt av mellom-istider eller varmeperioder som varer rundt 10-20 000 år, se figur 3.
Meningen med figur 3 er å etablere at for jorda er havnivåstigning og havnivåsenkning naturlige fenomener. De er sykliske uten at man ennå har greid å finne alle faktorene som danner disse syklusene. Det ser imidlertid ut til at istidene slutter relativt brått i forhold til når de oppstår igjen.
Ser man til figur 2 virker det som om havnivåstigning har flatet ut nå for denne mellomistiden.
Havnivåstigning og Norge
I Norge har vi landhevning. Det vil altså si at da landet begynte å dukke frem etter hvert som isen forsvant så begynte det også å heve seg i forhold til havnivået. Samtidig som havet steg som følge av issmelting, så hevet landet i Skandinavia seg raskere. Det er derfor vi har dette særskandinaviske fenomen med kvikkleire-ras. Dette finner sted der landet tidligere har ligget under havoverflaten og hvor der er samlet opp marin leire. Det finnes egne kart over den marine grensen som er tilgjengelige på nettet for den interesserte.
Norge er altså i den særstilling at landet generelt har steget raskere enn havet etter siste istid. Men langs kysten er det enkelte steder annerledes. Norges Kartverk har festet tidevannsmerker langs hele kysten. Ett sted, Tregde ved Mandal, har ikke opplevd landheving over lang tid, se Geodetiske arbeider, hefte 6, Høyder for presisjonsnivellement i Sør-Norge, publisert av Norges geografiske oppmåling, 1956).
All havnivåmåling er relatert til et fikspunkt festet til stein, som definerer posisjonen til nullnivået til tidevannsmåleren. Vi har kontinuerlige data fra Tregde siden 1927, se figur 4.
Tregde har ikke opplevd endring i havnivå i forhold til land. Dersom landet har hevet seg, har Tregde hevet seg like mye, siden 1927, hvilket tyder på at økte utslipp av CO2 siden 1990 uansett ikke har hatt noe som helst å si for vannstanden.
Når det gjelder den profeterte akselerasjonen av havnivået, vil vi kun se denne om landhevningen ved Tregde også har begynt å akselerere de siste 30 år. Dette er simpelthen fysisk umulig siden kreftene som virker på landet undenfra ikke er endret de siste 30 år. Man måtte i så tilfelle hevde at CO2-utslippene også fører til lokal landhevingsakselerasjon i Norden, hvilket er absurd. Landhevning er generelt ansett å ha vært konstant over de siste tusen år.
Vi ser absolutt ingen påvirkning av havnivået ved Tregde som har ført til akselerert endring siden 1990.
I denne første gjennomgangen av klimarapportenes påstander finner vi at en av de kraftigst betonte konsekvenser av menneskeskapte CO2-utslipp, en aksellererende havnivåstigning, ikke finner sted.
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Thanks for sharing your ideas on this blog. Also, a misconception regarding the finance institutions intentions when talking about home foreclosure is that the standard bank will not have my installments. There is a specific amount of time the bank will require payments in some places. If you are way too deep in the hole, they should commonly desire that you pay the actual payment fully. However, i am not saying that they will not take any sort of repayments at all. Should you and the loan company can be capable to work one thing out, this foreclosure practice may end. However, if you ever continue to neglect payments wih the new strategy, the property foreclosure process can pick up exactly where it was left off.
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